I had an above average week making picks last week including quite frankly some pretty crazy close picks. I had Washington 27-17 and they won 25-17. I had Philadelphia 26-14 and they won 27-14. Overall I had the points team would score within 5 for 54% of the NFL and within 9 for a ridiculous 86%. For total points I was within 5 for 57% of the games, within 11 on 71% and within 15 on 93% which is harder than you think. It’s rare I get to gloat like this and usually when I do bad weeks follow.

I was a decent 9-5 straight up for the week (70-46, 60% overall). My picks against the spread recovered at 7-5-2 (61-48-3) despite two frustrating pushes. I finally broke through on the over/under at 8-5-1 leveling my season record (55-55-5) and yes fives are wild.

NY Jets (4-3) @ Buffalo (5-2): pick NYJ +6/over 41.5

The Bills didn’t fare so well in their first game within the AFC East, losing at Miami 25-16. Then again I would say they performed better than the Jets even though they win. New York struggled mightily against a Kansas City team starting a quarterback most people haven’t heard of and going without their top running back Larry Johnson. Buffalo is 3-0 at home while the Jets are 1-2 on the road. Both losses were long trips to California where they were routed in San Diego and lost at Oakland in overtime.

Here’s what I can’t figure out about the J-E-T-S. They are fourth in the NFL averaging 4.6 yards per carry yet only 8 teams run the ball less than they do. What in the world are they doing passing the football up 24-21 in scoring range? I don’t care if it’s Favre or God himself lined up at quarterback it makes no sense. When will this team commit to the run? Thomas Jones has two games with 20+ carries this season and it’s no accident both times he finished with 100+ yards rushing. The Bills have a pretty good run defense bolstered by Stroud so this week might not be the best time to change the game plan. Then again Buffalo’s secondary has performed pretty well.

New York can really shut down the run having allowed just 578 yards all season and a solid 3.2 average. Edwards will take this game to the air early on against a secondary letting quarterbacks complete 66% of their passes with 10 touchdowns. They do have 24 sacks, third most in the NFL, and if Lynch doesn’t at least occasionally represent the running game this could be an upset in the making. I’m not sold on either team despite the winning records. Favre has played it too loose with 13 turnovers. Only now benched O’Sullivan of the 49ers has more. This week they are costly in a very close game: Buffalo 23, NY Jets 20

Jacksonville (3-4) @ Cincinnati (0-8): pick JAX -7/over 39.5

Just when the Jaguars appeared to be back on course they exit their bye week with a home loss to Cleveland. Now they’re in a three-way tie four games behind AFC South leading Tennessee. This setback was most troubling because the other defeats came to teams with a combined 17-4 record, but the Browns have been erratic and did I mention it was at home? Now they play the other Ohio team and one that is really slumping. The Bengals are coming really close to quitting on the season. Cutting Rudi Johnson who has been their best running back in recent seasons at the last minute has produced an inept running game with only one team having a worse average rush than their 3.4 yards. With Carson Palmer out the situation on offense worsens. Their combined effort from the position this season has produced 13 turnovers and 28 sacks, the bulk of which are on Fitzpatrick.

Can the Bengals turn in an effort like their first three quarters against Pittsburgh two weeks ago? It’s more likely than you might think. This will be an all out assault for them because their bye week is on deck. Jacksonville’s defense is struggling against the run allowing 4.4 yards per carry and isn’t very good against the pass either. The Jags have just 9 sacks, the third lowest total in the NFL, despite drafting two defensive ends in the first round. Harvey held out and has none while Groves has 1 ½. They are in the bottom half of the NFL allowing 230.6 passing yards per game and have allowed 12 touchdown passes, fourth most. Fitzpatrick has the targets to take advantage of this if he can protect the football.

The other side of this equation is Jacksonville trying to take advantage of a struggling defense. The Bengals haven’t held a team under 20 points since opening day when they were facing rookie Joe Flacco’s Ravens in his first NFL start. They are similarly not strong against the run (4.3 average rush allowed) and much worse against the pass. Cincinnati has allowed teams to complete 65.9% of their passes and the third most touchdown strikes (13) and second fewest sacks (6). If Garrard can dissect this defense at his leisure it will be difficult for Fitzpatrick to match drives with him. I don’t think it’s a fourth straight loss by double digits though: Jacksonville 26, Cincinnati 17

Baltimore (4-3) @ Cleveland (3-4): pick CLE +0/under 38

The first time these teams met in week 3 I wondered if the Ravens might regret having traded Derek Anderson to their rivals which forced them to trade up in the draft for Joe Flacco. Clearly the result went in their favor with a 28-10 victory. Neither quarterback had much success as both failed to throw for 130 yards, but Flacco was 13/19 (68%) while Anderson was an erratic 14/37 (38%). Anderson also took 5 sacks and threw 3 interceptions against clearly a much better defense. The biggest factor was the Ravens running McGahee, McClain and Rice a combined 37 carries for 151 yards. Baltimore can shut down Cleveland has done nothing since to show it won’t be a repeat performance having allowed 4.7 yards per rush overall, fifth worst in the NFL.

The Browns will be hard pressed to win the rushing battle against the #1 run defense in average rush (2.8) and yards per game (64.3) with only 1 rushing touchdown allowed. If they are thinking about passing the ball Baltimore is third in yards allowed (178.1) second in completion percentage allowed (52.6%) and fifth in interceptions (9). They held the Browns to 169 total yards the first time around and not much leads me to believe they won’t repeat that effort other than a different venue. The Ravens did allow some points on the road at Pittsburgh (23) and Indianapolis (31) in losses. Cleveland is coming home after splitting road games and will be playing in front of their fans for just the second time since week September 14. Everyone remembers their last home game, a 35-14 whooping of the defending champion Giants. This is a rivalry game. I have no business picking the Browns. Did I mention it’s a rivalry game? Over the past three weeks I think one team has played better and that team wins: Cleveland 14, Baltimore 12

Houston (3-4) @ Minnesota (3-4): pick MIN -4/over 45

These teams came into the season with vastly different expectations yet here they are with the same record. Despite the identical records their goals are much different. The Texans are 4 games back in the division race and clearly hoping to stay a factor in the wild card race, which had to be their goal when the season began because their division is so tough. The Vikings were trendy favorites in the NFC South and are very much in the race a game behind Chicago and Green Bay. A quarterback switch to Gus Frerotte has helped them rebound from their 0-2 start. Frerotte has 200+ yards in all five games he has played, which is more than ousted starter Jackson’s entire career (4). The Texans are allowing quarterbacks to complete 65.4% of their passes with just 5 interceptions and 11 sacks, the sixth lowest total in the NFL.

The biggest factor in this game could be the mental state of the star defensive tackles for the Vikings. The Williams “brothers” were both listed on a leaked report for masking drugs and face 4 game suspensions. It wasn’t a great way to spend their bye week sweating the possibility of going without both tackles for the #3 run defense in average rush (2.9) and #2 in yards per game (70.7). I think they’re fired up and while the Texans have gotten a solid 4.6 average out of both veteran Ahman Green and rookie Steve Slaton I’m not sure either can break loose here. Conversely Adrian Peterson should find plenty of running room. Prior to the bye he was heating up with two games averaging 23.5 carries for 116 yards. The rest will only help.

Even with a lot of pressure on their secondary because the Vikings are so good against the run they have allowed only 6 touchdown passes, third fewest in the NFL, and have a solid 16 sacks. Schaub will challenge them and Andre Johnson is leading the NFL with 110.3 yards receiving per game. Turnovers are the big issue as Schaub has 2 per game on the road. Speaking of which, while Houston is playing better of late with three wins in a row remember their past two victories came against winless Detroit and Cincinnati. They also spent the entire month of October at home and were 0-3 on the road in September allowing 33.0 points on average in the process. This will be an exciting game. I’ll take the team winning the rushing battle and the home field advantage: Minnesota 30, Houston 24

Detroit (0-7) @ Chicago (4-3): pick CHI -11/over 42.5

This is one of two rematches and both were convincing the first time around. The Bears took the week 5 meeting in a walkover 34-7 at Ford Field. Orton had a career day completing 71% of his passes for 334 yards and 2 touchdowns. He needed it because the running game saw three backs total just 87 yards on 33 carries. The Lions had only 185 total yards. More than half of that total (96) came on 7 receptions by Roy Williams who is now with the Cowboys. Are you thinking what I’m thinking? The only thing I like more about Detroit these days is Orlovsky starting at quarterback. He has only 2 interceptions in 109 pass attempts, has yet to lose a fumble and 6 of his 10 sacks came in one game. Kitna was a turnover machine and sack test dummy.

Both teams are led by rookie running backs out of Conference USA. Detroit’s Kevin Smith needs to be cut loose. Since week 1 he has yet to carry more than 10 times in a game. He carried the ball about a million times for UCF last season and clearly can handle the workload assuming the team doesn’t open the game in their usual 21-0 hole. Chicago’s Matt Forte is the opposite with 19+ carries in six of their seven games. The exception is the first meeting with the Lions and while his average is low (3.5) clearly his hard running has helped balance the offense. I favor Chicago slightly in this one and the margin could widen if they gain momentum early on their home field.

While Orlovksy has done a good job protecting the football the Bears do have the fourth most interceptions (10). The Lions have an NFL low 1 interception and the second highest completion percentage (70%) allowed. The numbers certainly bode well for the Bears winning the turnover battle and Orton having another big day against a team that has given up the fourth most touchdown passes (12). Combine that with the fact that Detroit is terrible on the road and this series has produced a sweep four seasons in a row and I think the result is clear: Chicago 30, Detroit 16

Tampa Bay (5-3) @ Kansas City (1-6): pick TB -7/over 36

Three coaches have already been handed a pink slip this season and Herm Edwards has probably the hottest seat in the NFL now. His saving grace might be losing his top two quarterbacks. If they are going to win another game it might be on the arm of Tyler Thigpen because running back Larry Johnson is out and facing a possible league suspension. Thigpen turned in a stunning performance in nearly leading a win over the Jets on the road last week. He was 25/36 for 280 yards and 2 touchdowns without a turnover although he did take 4 sacks. I don’t expect a similar performance against the Bucs who are second in interceptions (12) seventh in yards allowed (188.8) and sixth in completion percentage allowed (56.9%).

The Chiefs have been mostly beaten up this season with 4 losses by 15+ points. They couldn’t beat the Patriots who lost Tom Brady early and took out Denver on the back of LJ who won’t be playing here. In their last home game the Titans ran over them like they were playing with 10 offensive linemen. The Bucs have been extremely competitive on the road despite their 1-3 record. None of their road games have been decided by more than 4 points. I would expect that to change for the better in this one. No team allows more yards per rush than Kansas City (5.6) and Tampa Bay can take advantage with their 4.3 average. On the other side a solid Buccaneer defense has the sixth lowest average allowed (3.6) and might be facing Kolby Smith if Jamaal Charles can’t go. Only one team has been thrown on less than the Chiefs (27.7 per game) but their NFL low sack total (4) is embarrassing. They might miss Jared Allen a little bit. Garcia and a steady running game should lead the Bucs into the bye week with a comfortable win: Tampa Bay 24, Kansas City 14

Arizona (4-3) @ St. Louis (2-5): pick STL +3/over 48.5

I never tire of seeing Bulger vs. Warner. It looks like Bulger might be up for another shootout after last week’s 301 yards passing in a 23-16 loss at New England. He hadn’t topped 220 yards since week 10 of last season. When last they met though the Cardinals led by Warner got the better of it in a big way with a 48-19 win to close out the 2007 campaign in the desert. Bulger did throw for 300+ yards in his previous two meetings with the Cards, both in 2006, and has averaged 268 yards passing against them. He is 7-3, but has lost three of four (including the past two at home) and has only 15 touchdowns against 16 interceptions. Warner’s numbers are almost identical when he was the opposing quarterback in half of those games. He is 3-2 with 272 yards passing, 8 touchdowns and 7 interceptions while winning both his return visits to St. Louis.

Now that history is out of the way let’s discuss the present. The Cardinals are stumbling their way to winning the NFC West ahead of three teams who are a combined 3-12 when playing teams outside the division. The potentially better news is that five of their final nine games are against division foes. Their only other division game was a week 1 win at San Francisco. The Rams are also playing just their second division game having lost 37-13 at Seattle in week 3. At home St. Louis has watched their fans leave early in all three games, first because they were blown out (Giants, Bills) and most recently they were routing the Cowboys. After the aforementioned road win the Cards have lost three in a row on the road including blowing a lead at Carolina last week.

Arizona’s running game might be the immovable force with an NFL low average rush (3.3) against the movable force of St. Louis allowing the fourth highest average (4.8). I think James or the rookie Hightower could be a factor. It is easier to project what the Rams will do in Steven Jackson’s return. They average 4.0 a pop and that’s what the Cards give up. He will be counted on to keep Warner off the field. You might be surprised to see Arizona #1 in completion percentage (70%) with St. Louis way down the chart (57.5%). The touchdown passes edge is just as dramatic (14-4). Both pass defenses have struggled with the Cards slightly worse in aerial scores allowed (10-14) and the Rams ahead in interceptions (6-3). Is Bulger up to the challenge? I’m always concerned with Warner’s mistakes and he has 10 turnovers and 15 sacks. This is one of those gut feeling picks. The Rams are a different team now under Haslett: St. Louis 31, Arizona 27

Green Bay (4-3) @ Tennessee (7-0): pick GB +5.5/under 42.5

The luck is going to run out for the Titans this season, but when? Only twice have they failed to win by 10+ points this season and while their schedule includes only one team with a winning record (Baltimore) confidence is flowing. The Packers are fresh from their bye week facing a team playing on a short week. Ironically both beat Indianapolis in their last game and scored 30+ points in the process. Tennessee has really gotten it done in the running game. They have been criticized for repeatedly picking running backs early in the draft. However, although Henry looks like a miss the Johnson/White duo has produced 953 yards and 14 touchdowns this season. Green Bay has allowed 4.9 yards per rush, third most in the NFL. They are clearly at an advantage running the ball considering the average for the Packers and against the Titans is 3.7 per rush. On the bright side Ryan Grant has finally showed up the past two games with 195 yards rushing. The bad news is it took 64 carries to get there and it came against two struggling teams and run defenses (Seattle, Indy).

You would a team with a solid run defense gives up a lot of passing, but it’s not the case with the Titans. They are fourth in yards allowed per game (185.3) second in touchdowns allowed (3) and second in interceptions (12). The Packers actually lead the NFL with 13 interceptions, but will Collins ever pass the ball in this game? I wouldn’t expect much of it in the game plan considering Green Bay allows an NFL low 51.7% of passes to be completed against them. The Packers will be loading up against the run trying to force the Titans to throw. It sounds like it might work, but Tennessee is used to imposing their will on opponents. They have scored 30+ points in three straight home games and while I wouldn’t be surprised to see them upset here the numbers lead me in the other direction: Tennessee 21, Green Bay 17

Miami (3-4) @ Denver (4-3): pick MIA +6/under 50.5

These are two of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL and the records reflect that. The Dolphins have taken out both teams leading their division (Buffalo, New England) and a solid San Diego team. They have also been wiped out by Arizona and Baltimore and lost to Houston and the Jets. The Broncos started the season 3-0 with an unstoppable offense averaging 38 points. Then they lost three of four while scoring just 14.8. Their total offense is #2 with 381.9 yards per game, but they can’t keep up with a defense allowing 394.6 (#30). It should be fun trying to project which version of each team shows up in this one.

The Broncos are having their usual success running with 4.6 yards per carry, fourth best in the NFL without a true star in the backfield. They face a much improved front line in Miami allowing just 3.7 per rush. The numbers flip when the Dolphins run the ball because their average is the eighth lowest (3.8) while the Broncos are the second worst (5.4). Forget the Wildcat, Miami should be unleashing Ronnie Brown straight up in this one. He has only two games with over 14 carries this season and had 110+ yards both times. Thus far Ricky Williams has been getting nearly half the carries and both might be attacking this defense.

Sometimes a stat will really surprise me and passing offense in this one is a shocker. Denver has a huge edge on offense right? Well, not exactly. They do have an edge in touchdown passes (13-8) but both are in the top 6 in yardage with Denver only 12 yards per game ahead of Miami. Only the Titans have taken fewer sacks (5) than Denver although Miami’s total is low (12) behind a revamped offensive line anchored by rookie Jake Long. The tiebreaker is defense. We know Pennington has his team third in completion percentage (68.8%) and the Broncos are at the bottom of that department (72.9%) with 12 touchdown passes given up and only 2 interceptions. It only gets worse with Champ Bailey out of the lineup. At first blush I really expected to be picking Denver, but now the waters are muddy. Miami should be able to move the ball at will in this game. If Joey Porter continues his dream season by forcing Cutler into a few mistakes they should spring the upset: Miami 24, Denver 23

Dallas (5-3) @ NY Giants (6-1): pick NYG -7/under 42

The Cowboys found a way to win last week and possibly saved their season in the process. Considering Romo is out for this road test and possibly their trip to Washington after the bye a 4-6 record was starting to look like a possibility. Instead the defense rallied after allowing 64 points during consecutive losses. The Giants have the best record in the NFC yet are just two games ahead of the last place team in the division. In other words they can’t relax. Last week’s gritty 21-14 win at Pittsburgh washed away some of the doubts that their hot start was a product of a weak schedule. With Romo out we do get a meeting of two quarterbacks who have won a Super Bowl. Unfortunately Brad Johnson won his almost entirely on the back of Tampa Bay’s defense. He was considered a steady backup, but after two starts really looks like a guy who at 40 years old should be retired. If he’s not up to the task their only option is Brooks Bollinger. He has appeared in 19 games for the Vikings and Jets, but passed for 180+ yards just twice.

Either quarterback is going to be decked by this defense. The Giants lead the NFL with 26 sacks, a few ahead of the Cowboys (22). Dallas will certainly be trying to duplicate last week’s defensive battle and hope for another low scoring win. New York is fifth in passing yards allowed (185.4) and seventh in completion percentage allowed (58.3%) so even with plenty of targets I wouldn’t expect them to give up a lot of yardage through the air in this one. Meanwhile the Cowboys have just 2 interceptions on defense and are shorthanded in the secondary with injuries and a certain suspended player. Plaxico Burress is a distraction, but he should be happy this week.

Both teams have run the ball effectively this season with the Giants leading in average rush (5.1) and the Cowboys fourth (4.6). They are also strong on the defensive side with New York (3.8) slightly better than Dallas (3.9). The real difference is personnel available. Felix Jones is out which last week left Marion Barber taking all 25 carries for the ‘Boys. The G-Men have a 1-2 punch with Jacobs and Ward with Bradshaw also available. I like the odds of them wearing down the Dallas defense with the run and beating their secondary. This actually shouldn’t be very close: NY Giants 23, Dallas 13

Philadelphia (4-3) @ Seattle (2-5): pick PHI -6.5/under 44.5

Last week the Seahawks were close to having a tag placed on their proverbial toe. The season was dead with a loss at San Francisco, but for now there is a flicker of life in the dreadful NFC West. I’m sure the Eagles wouldn’t mind a division transfer. Despite having a winning record they are dead last in the rugged NFC East. Once dominant at home Seattle has lost two of three in their stadium this season with the only win coming over a then hapless St. Louis team. The Eagles are 1-2 on the road, but lost a tough one at Dallas 41-37 and an even tougher battle at Chicago 20-14 when Westbrook didn’t play. Their key offensive cog is back in the fold and exploded for 209 total yards on 28 touches last week.

The Seahawks won’t be getting their offensive leader Matt Hasselbeck back, but Seneca Wallace had a solid passing effort in leading them past the 49ers a week ago. This is a little bit different against a Jim Johnson defense. The Eagles are fourth in the NFL allowing teams to complete just 56.2% of their passes and are also fourth in sacks (23). Seattle has been solid running the ball although they were terrible last week and face a Philly defense that ranks fifth in yards per carry allowed (3.5). I’m not sure the Seahawks can move the ball here. On the other hand McNabb has his team third in passing yards per game (271.4) going up against the third worst pass defense (245.3). The Seahawks have allowed 11 touchdown passes and have just 2 interceptions. Since 2003 these teams have combined to have just one losing season and that was when McNabb missed nearly half the 2005 campaign. Although their recent history reflects two of the best teams in the NFC now clearly one team has the edge: Philadelphia 24, Seattle 14

Atlanta (4-3) @ Oakland (2-5): pick ATL -2.5/under 42

Last week the Raiders faced a first round rookie quarterback in Baltimore and Joe Flacco shined in a 29-10 win. This week they get the first signal caller off the board and will be in a great position to compare the two. Oakland’s defense has taken a beating on the stat sheet, but a lot of the blame falls on their lack of offense. Their young quarterback JaMarcus Russell is progressing slowly in his first year as their starter. Despite throwing just 197 passes he has taken 18 sacks and turned the ball over 7 times. There are 20 quarterbacks with more attempts and 9 of them have the same or fewer turnovers while only one (San Francisco’s O’Sullivan) has taken more sacks. The running game has kept them alive, but injuries to Fargas earlier in the season and now rookie McFadden have prevented any offensive momentum.

The Falcons are not struggling to move the ball on the ground. Michael Turner has helped them average a solid 4.8 yards per carry, second best in the NFL. Oakland allows 4.5 yards per carry and Turner has already faced them six times with the Chargers. The passing game should be interesting. Russell might get an edge from DeAngelo Hall doing his best impression of Favre by discussing the schemes of his former team. He will also be motivated to play well against Ryan and build on last week’s solid outing. Teams clearly are avoiding the other side of the field where throwing at Asomugha makes no sense. The Falcons have struggled a bit on the road at 1-3 with the losses all by 13+ points although the win was a big one at Green Bay. The Raiders got their first road win two weeks ago, but led San Diego 15-0 at halftime before folding late. Ryan should outshine Russell in a battle of the first quarterback taken in the past two drafts and the Falcons are going to run the ball more effectively. An upset is possible, but I’m sure they will be taking this team seriously knowing they took the Jets by surprise. The Raiders can’t score in the red zone and that’s their biggest problem: Atlanta 20, Oakland 12

New England (5-2) @ Indianapolis (3-4): pick NE +7/under 45

John Madden makes his dramatic return to the booth for this one after missing his first game in, well, forever two weeks ago. It should be a good one although this heated rivalry has lost some luster because of injured knees. Tom Brady obviously is out and Peyton Manning just hasn’t been himself this season after knee surgery. The yards per game have been there (250.6) but at this pace he will have a career low 23 touchdown passes and the projected 21 interceptions will be his third highest total and most since 2001. He has already thrown 2 interceptions four times and the team has lost three of those games. The lone win was a miracle comeback against Minnesota. This time he can breathe a little easier knowing Cassel is leading the Patriot offense. Their new starter set a new career high with 267 yards passing last week, but threw 2 interceptions against 1 touchdown. He also took 3 sacks and now has 28 on the season. Only now benched J.T. O’Sullivan of San Francisco has gone down more often this season. However, the Indy defense has the fourth lowest sack total (10) although they lead the NFL allowing just 2 touchdown passes.

In light of that New England is likely to take advantage of the Colts allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 67.5% of their passes, fifth most in the NFL, by hitting Wes Welker early and often. Manning goes up against a defense that has stymied him in the past, but has allowed 11 touchdown passes this season. Last year’s loss to the Pats broke a string of three straight wins preceded by New England winning five in a row. Again, he just hasn’t been himself. It hasn’t helped that he has no running game whatsoever with a pitiful 3.4 yard average rush, second lowest in the NFL. The burden is on Rhodes now that Addai is out and with 247 yards he actually leads the team. New England allows 4.4 yards per rush. On the other side somehow the Patriots can run the ball averaging 4.2 yards a carry. They’ve done it with quite simply a cast of characters, most recently BenJarvus Green-Ellis who sounds like someone straight out of a videogame set in outer space. The Colts have been mediocre against the run this season and on defense in general without Bob Sanders. Now that Indy has gotten their first home win at “The Luke” (I’m the only one who calls it that) can they build some momentum? I think they need it more and even on a short week will get it somehow: Indianapolis 24, New England 20

Pittsburgh (5-2) @ Washington (6-2): pick PIT +3/under 38

Last week the Redskins escaped with a close victory over winless Detroit two weeks after giving St. Louis their first win of the season. Against a much stronger opponent the Steelers couldn’t quite hold on, giving up a five point lead in a 21-14 loss to the Giants. All season Washington has kept it close and their 8 point win over the Lions marked the widest margin of victory for any game they have been involved in this season. The ‘Skins are 3-1 at home. Pittsburgh is 3-1 on the road and just lost their first close game of the season. They had previous wins by 4, 3 and 5 points plus two blowouts and a loss by 9. Both teams have met Cleveland and won close, low scoring games. Pittsburgh won 10-6 and Washington won 14-11. The Redskins lost by a similar margin to the Giants (16-7). The final common opponent is the difference because Washington beat Philadelphia (23-17) who took out Pittsburgh (15-6). I’m always good for some useless stats.

In a bit of irony the better running team this season is Washington who ranks third averaging 4.7 yards per carry. Pittsburgh provides the resistance leading the NFL on the defensive side of that (2.8). Last week the Giants and their top ranked rushing offense weren’t able to break through, but still won the game. Of course the Steelers want to run the football yet Willie Parker is out for the time being and rookie Rashard Mendenhall is gone for the season so it is up to Mewelde Moore. He has responded very well with 99, 120 and 84 yards rushing in his past three games. The Redskins have a good run defense and should force Roethlisberger to pass.

Last week Big Ben failed to hit 200 yards passing for the fifth time in seven games. He also threw 4 interceptions after coming into the game with 3 on the season, and took five more sacks bring his total to 23. Washington has a good pass defense and allows opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56% of their passes, third lowest in the NFL. They also have only 10 sacks, fourth lowest in the NFL, and if they can’t pressure Roethlisberger it could mean trouble. On the other side Jason Campbell’s next interception will be his first. No other team has less than 3 interceptions. He will certainly be tested against the #1 defense in yards passing allowed (164.4) and second most sacks (25). The Steelers are also brutal on Monday Night Football. They did just lose in primetime at home, but it was against a better team. I like them to win a major slugfest in this one. Their defense is better and will ruin Campbell’s perfection: Pittsburgh 15, Washington 13