When I sat down to make last week’s picks I had it in my head to take the road teams in the AFC and home teams in the NFC. After delving in, I stuck with it on Saturday’s games. Unfortunately I convinced myself to go the other way on Sunday. Where did I wrong? New England and Green Bay were undone by turnovers. Tom Brady giving up the ball four times in a playoff game at home was an incredibly unpredictable event. I anticipated him taking advantage of backup cornerbacks even without his crutch, slot receiver Wes Welker. Later in the day, lost in the shuffle of the Packers coming back from the dead was a 3-1 turnover deficit. In a game with just one punt on each side this was gigantic and of course the decisive touchdown in OT came on a defensive return of a fumble. I was left with an unsettling 2-2 record across the board so I’m now 177-83 straight up, 132-135-3 against the spread and 127-128-5 picking the over/under.

Arizona (11-6) @ New Orleans (13-3): The Cards are on a short week here and lose a day of preparation. Combined with an exhausting, emotional overtime victory the Cardinals are up against it this week. Lost in the excitement of their thrilling win was a ridiculous defensive effort. Praise was heaped on Aaron Rodgers, who threw for about a mile I think, and left at least one defender, safety Antrel Rolle, saying he never wanted to face him again. No problem, except that I wonder if Drew Brees has this quote up in his locker.

Is there any reason to believe the Saints, with an equally dangerous quarterback and much more balanced offense will not light up this defense? Other than rust I don’t think so. A lot of talking heads want to make a big deal out of their 0-3 finish. They lost their undefeated season, legitimately, to possibly the best team in football at the moment. After the Dallas loss, Tampa Bay refused to quit against them and pulled out a stunning victory. Finally, their backups lost at Carolina, who was finishing strong. The Saints do not have the skill at wide receiver to match what the Packers did last week. They do get a rousing home crowd starved for a playoff winner. Remember last week when Arizona built their lead on the back of rowdy fan support? This week it should be the opposite.

Everyone thinks this game will be just as high scoring as the record breaking game six days earlier, but I disagree. Both teams will be much more interested in running the football. Arizona’s path to the Super Bowl last year was sparked by Edgerrin James in what turned out to be his swan song. This time rookie Beanie Wells is their player to lean on. New Orleans finished sixth in rushing even without a player cracking 800 yards. Their offense thrives on spreading the football around which can create a problem defensively. Why did this team crush New England? That’s easy. The Patriots often pick the most dangerous player to shut down. They couldn’t figure out who it was.

The scariest aspects of this pick are probably the road success enjoyed by Arizona and their four straight NFC playoff wins. I foresaw a shootout last week, although not to that extreme and I got the winner wrong. This time stops are less crucial and ball control comes into play. New Orleans is more likely to sustain drives because they have run the ball successfully all season. Warner is a rhythm quarterback. He stayed hot because he was constantly getting back on the field after his defense gave up a score. If this is his final game I would love to see him wind up in the Hall of Fame for his body of work, but in this stadium I believe we are going to see him playing from too far behind and the home team frustrating him: New Orleans 34, Arizona 22 (NO -7/under 57.5)

Baltimore (10-7) @ Indianapolis (14-2): This is a fitting second half of the double header because of the many similarities. Like Arizona, the Ravens shot through last year’s playoffs out of nowhere. Both teams now visit a #1 seeded opponent that has drawn criticism for losing momentum in part due to resting players down the stretch, and of course they each travel to a dome. In this game, much more than the earlier one, home field advantage is big. Warner is used to playing in a dome and Arizona is a warm weather team. Flacco’s Ravens are a black and blue team that would love it if this game was being played in wind, sleet, snow or all of the above.

Their unflappable quarterback has only two starts in true domes during his short career. The first was here last year and while his passing stats were pretty good (28/38 for 241 yards) he had 3 interceptions and the team lost 31-3. Comparing those numbers to facing the Colts at home in week 11 they are almost identical (23/35 for 256 yards) but he had just 1 interception and the team lost a 17-15 struggle. Can we blame the dome on his turnover issues? Maybe we can. It is worth noting he had no touchdown passes in either game. He did have a huge dome game at Minnesota (28/43, 385 yards 2 TD) although a missed field goal cost him in a 33-31 loss.

On the other side is the NFL’s MVP four times over. Last week I really thought Tom Brady would take advantage of these cornerbacks even if Ed Reed was back at safety. He was too beaten up to get it done and lacked the talent down the field. These are not problems for Peyton Manning. His biggest concern might be upstart wide receiver Pierre Garcon playing with a heavy heart for his family struggling with the Haiti earthquake aftermath. I regularly point out how difficult it is for a physical defense to impose their will in a dome. When he faced these guys en route to a Super Bowl title in the 2006 playoffs he was just 15/30 for 170 yards and a pair of interceptions. In a game without a touchdown the Colts won 15-6. This is not going to be the same type of game. Instead Baltimore needs to keep up on offense.

The other downer for the Ravens is trying to do what other teams have tried and failed out which is controlling the game by running the ball. Ray Rice is coming out as one of the elite backs in the NFL. He is going to get his yards, but can his offense finish drives with touchdowns? Getting it done against a tired Patriots defense is one thing, rinsing and repeating under pressure is another. This is shaping up to be an interesting game because I do see both teams scoring some points. Last week I chose Brady over Flacco. This week I’m doing the same thing and hoping the “dome” field advantage kicks in. Ironically, after the Jets played the final regular season game in Giants Stadium, the place will officially be closed down when the Ravens lose this game: Indianapolis 24, Baltimore 16 (IND -6/under 44.5)

Dallas (11-5) @ Minnesota (12-4): The Vikings picked up a bye week when the Cowboys dusted off the Eagles in the regular season finale. Had the game gone the other way, this game would have been played in the Wild Card round. Of course the ‘Boys benefitted as well in the short term, but they will be dealing with a rested Favre. The truth is that Minnesota’s offense is not the key to this game. Their defense had some issues down the stretch, starting when linebacker E.J. Henderson was lost for the season. He was injured during a 30-17 defeat at Arizona, which actually is one reason for optimism. The three times they struggled, giving up 92 points in all, were road losses. They have not allowed more than 10 points at home since October 18, a 33-31 win over Baltimore.

Just when you think I’m leaning towards the Vikings, none of those opponents possess anywhere close to the firepower Dallas brings in. When facing Detroit, Seattle, Chicago, Cincinnati and New York (Giants) it was easy for them to get ahead and dominate. None of those teams boast across the board talent at quarterback, running back and wide receiver. If the home team is going to recapture their early season success and keep Favre’s goal of a second Super Bowl ring alive it will require a solid defensive effort. Speaking of #4, this is when having him matters. Anyone who watched their horrific playoff loss to Philadelphia last year knows what I am talking about. Tarvaris Jackson got the start over Gus Frerotte and went 15/35 for 164 yards. Without a passing game the Eagles won in a 26-14 walk.

Expectations are higher with Favre in charge of the offense, but at some point Adrian Peterson needs to be dominant for them to reach their full potential. Until scampering 23 yards in the season finale he had gone six games with a long rush of 16. Five times since November 1, and six times total he had 24+ rushes and failed to reach 100 yards. Six lost fumbles led NFL running backs and, oh yeah, the Dallas defense is on a tear. The Cowboys just shut down one veteran quarterback with explosive offensive options at his disposal. The Vikings are much more balanced of course, but if the running game stalls will Favre try to do too much?

His opposing signal caller Tony Romo has quieted those saying he could not win the big one, first by winning the division and then getting his first playoff win. He seems unflappable, but never under estimate a dome crowd throwing him off, especially when a crazy pass rusher like Jared Allen is coming at him. Then again, his last trip indoors provided a huge 24-17 over previously undefeated New Orleans. He passed for 312 yards. I’m curious to see if Marion Barber’s return to Minnesota, where he starred for the Golden Gophers, is eventful. His health keeps the running game alive if the offensive line isn’t creating huge holes because he is always driving for extra yards. I’m torn, but I like the hot team. Favre has been ratings gold for the NFL this season. Unfortunately he is going to be banged around by an attacking defense and left talking about retirement by the time this one is over: Dallas 27, Minnesota 21 (DAL +3/over 45.5)

NY Jets (10-7) @ San Diego (13-3): There is probably one player for New York who is happy to be playing in Southern California. Mark Sanchez was born in Long Beach and went on to play at USC before being drafted by the J-E-T-S. The rest of the team, and head coach Rex Ryan, would much prefer this game taking place at the windy Meadowlands. If Baltimore loses on Saturday the stadium will never host another NFL game though, regardless of how this turns out. Of the four games this is the pick I am most comfortable with, even before I finish picking and prodding at it. The Chargers are playing at a very high level. Their receivers pose a problem for any secondary, and their quarterback can handle the pressure of a blitz. As impressive as the Jets looked shutting down the Bengals twice in a row, throw it out the window because this is a totally different offense.

San Diego has won 11 in a row since starting 2-3, but one of those early losses on this field was against a similar team. Baltimore gave up 474 yards while totaling just 311 yet found a way to win 31-26. I’m expecting a lot less scoring in this one. The Jets can attack a suspect run defense and keep this one close while also protecting their defense from Philip Rivers. When the Chargers do get the ball, stud cornerback Revis has to continue his run through the game’s best wide receivers by shutting down Vincent Jackson. I’m not sure he can do it. Jackson is a unique player. When he doesn’t get the ball, tight end Antonio Gates puts similar pressure on the secondary. Their size creates mismatches.

If it seems like I am at a loss for words it is because I am. There is no doubt I believe the Chargers are going to win, but I really believe this could turn into a stunningly close defensive battle. San Diego has a painfully limited running game and might bog down in the red zone. New York could wind up punching in two touchdowns during their only trips past midfield and be hanging onto a 14-12 lead in the fourth quarter. The biggest difference is rookie Mark Sanchez having to play from behind in the playoffs. When he is forced to make the plays I don’t see it happening. He was solid last week, delivering some clutch throws and would have been even better if Edwards could catch. I’m looking for a thriller deep into the fourth quarter when Rivers comes through for a “dagger” touchdown pass: San Diego 23, NY Jets 14 (SD -7/under 42.5)