What a wacky week in the NFL. I had serious reservations picking Carolina and Jacksonville, the teams joined forever in history for joining as expansion franchises together, both winning on the road. The thing is, both played well enough to win yet gave their games away with mistakes. The Panthers have Jake Delhomme at quarterback and are therefore always a threat to have multiple turnovers, but a weird deflection turned into a “pick six”. Coupled with the overturning of a Steve Smith touchdown, on a very close call, what would have been a 10-9 game late became a too difficult to overcome 17-6 deficit. On the other coast, the Jaguars kept driving down the field, but two missed field goals and two fumbles made literally hundreds of total yards useless. Just cashing in for 3 would have made that game 20-15. It was a gamble for me to make those picks and it didn’t pan out, but at least I went for it. I was still 12-4 straight up and stand 123-53 overall. I had even more frustration trying to “beat Vegas”. Against the spread my dismal 5-11 showing left me perhaps too far behind to catch up at 80-95-1 on the season. I wasn’t as atrocious picking the over/under at 7-9, barely behind at 85-87-4.

NY Jets (5-6) @ Buffalo (4-7): Last year the Bills didn’t get much “home” support against Miami in their international affair at Toronto. This time they hope things are different. The crowd must be dying to back a winner. After all, the local Argonauts finished with by far the worst record in the CFL at 3-15, winning just one home game. In the league we care about, neither team has realistic wild card hopes but New York can at least dream a little bit with a win. Actually, it might not be such a fantasy. Next is a trip to Tampa Bay, who is struggling mightily. Next up is a home game against Atlanta. Will Matt Ryan be healthy by then? The comes a visit to currently undefeated Indianapolis whose only motivation might be the record book. Going into the finale against Cincinnati at 9-6 would not be the strangest thing to happen this season in the NFL, not with Tennessee’s 0-6 to 5-6 renaissance.

The first game in this series was rather ugly. Rookie Mark Sanchez threw 6 interceptions and the teams combined for 13 punts. When the dust cleared, Buffalo rallied from a 13-3 halftime deficit to force overtime and kicked a field goal to win 16-13. Their fans probably took a while to figure out how it was possible to blow a 10-point lead while getting 210 rushing yards from running back Thomas Jones and 99 from now-injured Leon Washington. It seems like head coach Rex Ryan has reined in the rook. On the other side of the field Ryan Fitzpatrick is turning it loose. While holding an interim label Perry Fewell made the quarterback switch and has been rewarded with 543 passing yards over the past two games. Trent Edwards hadn’t thrown for more than 200 yards since week 2.  

AFC East division play has ruined New York this season. They are a loss here away from finishing 1-5. Both Miami games and the first meeting with the Bills could have easily been wins. Conventional wisdom says they are due. If their defense plays well and the running game gets going behind Thomas Jones and rookie Shonn Greene this could be an easy win. However, Buffalo is hot. Earlier failures and weaknesses seem sort of irrelevant. This might not be their home field, but a (sort of) national NFL Network television audience ups the stakes. Terrell Owens is going to be pumped, we know that. He will also have Revis on his tail all night. I prefer New York’s offensive line by a mile and Sanchez won’t give it away this time: NY Jets 23, Buffalo 17 (NYJ -3/over 37)

St. Louis (1-10) @ Chicago (4-7): I have to be honest. I'm not very interested in breaking this game down. What's the point? The Bears have taken a nose dive. The most interesting thing about them is veteran linebacker Brian Urlacher, currently injured, mouthing off about the quarterback situation and offensive strategy. At least they have a "franchise" starter. The Rams are certainly going to be looking for one in the upcoming draft. Marc Bulger is out and Kyle Boller is in for this one, but no one thinks Bulger will be back next season for more punishment or that Boller is a long term solution. All of this quarterback talk overshadows the real problem for both teams. Their defenses are not strong enough to carry the day. Sure, the Bears still have an average defense, but if the "Urlacher plan" is going to work they have to be a shut down unit. The Rams are flat out awful. When two teams in the bottom 10 of scoring defense get together late in the season for a basically meaningless game, what happens? I guess I have to figure it out.

At least Chicago has the home field advantage working for them. Fans might be turning on Cutler when things are going poorly and he is firing interceptions, but if the team is ahead all should be jolly during this holiday season. St. Louis could not be more disengaged right about now. They have kept it close the past three games, all at home, but this is their first road game since really being hopeless. I don't count the game in Detroit if you're nitpicking. Dome teams historically struggle outdoors, especially late in the season. Steven Jackson is not at full strength and neither is the line in front of him. Chicago's defense is missing some parts too, but again the home crowd and weather will bolster their efforts. When the Rams fall behind, Boller has a shot to beat a defense that has given up basically 2 touchdown passes per game. I wouldn't count on it. On the other side, Forte has a great opportunity to regain some of his swagger by piling up 20-25 carries for a nice chunk of yards against a soft defense. Crazy as it seems, over the past four games the Rams have outscored the Bears 70-57 and been better on the defensive side (86-111) as well. If they are up for it, this could be a head scratcher. I'm not banking on it in cold weather: Chicago 24, St. Louis 13 (CHI -9/under 41)

Tampa Bay (1-10) @ Carolina (4-7): Didn't I just preview this game? It's another late season dud, but at least the quarterback situations here allow for some intrigue. In the first meeting, won by the Panthers 28-21, we had Delhomme against Josh Johnson. Since then the Bucs have gone with rookie Josh Freeman and an injury has finally put Matt Moore into the lineup. I anticipate another defensive struggle this time around. Carolina's offensive line is down a left tackle and their best rusher, DeAngelo Williams, might miss the game as well. Tampa Bay seems to be going better on offense of late, but they mustered just 12 first downs in the other meeting. I will say this for them though, they have not been mailing it in. The Bucs have lost two heartbreakers on the road at Miami and Atlanta over the past three weeks. Those teams aren't elite, but they are at least in the playoff discussion. The Panthers would love to be in that discussion. Last week provided a great chance for them to get back in the hunt only to watch Delhomme toss 4 picks in a loss at the Jets.

The recipe for success here is pretty simple. Both teams will look at the opposing run defense and expect to have success. These units are both in the bottom 7 of the NFL for both yards per carry and per game. Tampa Bay is measurably worse, but a lot of that is due to being, well, 1-10. Teams are ahead of them and do plenty of work in the fourth quarter. I'll give the edge to the Panthers based on home field. The passing stats are rather interesting. Even with three different quarterbacks Tampa Bay is a little less inept passing the football (176.6) compared to Carolina (170.6). I'd like to know where all the Delhomme fans who have told me the past two drafts they "didn't need to take a quarterback!" are now. The Bucs have their guy and the only problem has been finishing of late. In this one I'm a little worried for Freeman though. He is going up against a secondary giving up the third fewest yards in the NFL (181.3) per game.

On the other side his pass defense has allowed 24 touchdown strikes, paving the way for Moore to do what Delhomme could not. Namely, get the ball into the hands of Steve Smith. He has only four games with more than 4 receptions this season. For an explosive receiver still in his prime that is totally unacceptable. This one should be low scoring because both defenses seem to still believe their team has a chance. Carolina's glimmer of hope ends next week at New England, and with Minnesota and New Orleans also left on the schedule they certainly realize there will be no return to the playoffs. However, I think they can muster up enough of a running game with Jonathan Stewart and key passes from Moore to build a nice cushion. After that, their defense brings it home: Carolina 20, Tampa Bay 10 (CAR -5/under 40)

Houston (5-6) @ Jacksonville (6-5): On the day bowl bids are given out in college football I will dub this is the "Disappointment Bowl". Both of these teams have frustrated their fans with high expectations and lackluster play in recent seasons. The Jaguars have rebounded from their 0-2 start to get back into the wild card chase thanks to three close wins in a row. Then came disappointment last week in San Francisco, losing 20-3 in a game marred by Garrard fumbles and Scobee field goal misses. The Texans have had close games as well, but theirs ended up in losses. November was not a month to remember for them. Houston was 1-3, losing twice to Indianapolis and on MNF against red hot Tennessee. Kris Brown failing to connect on clutch field goals cost them twice in 20-17 setbacks and last week a typical collapse turned a potential undefeated season wrecking win into a 35-27 loss.

Their first meeting was as close as it gets on the stat sheet. First downs, third down efficiency, total yards, average per play, and even penalties were all close to even. The one difference was a 2-1 edge in turnovers. Chris Brown fumbled into the endzone on what could have been the game tying touchdown with just minutes to play and Houston lost 31-24. Picking for both of these teams can be tricky. They are so emotional, so hot and cold. I generally like the Texans more when the pressure is off and having lost three in a row it certainly applies here. The Jaguars are 4-1 at home and have, unlike the visitors, survived the close games. On paper neither team stands out in total offense or defense either way. The big advantage seems to be Schaub taking on a secondary giving up 242.9 yards per game and 19 touchdown passes with only 10 sacks recorded. MJD is always a threat to take over a game running the ball, but the Texans have really tightened up against the run even if their average per rush allowed (4.8) is still unsightly. I feel like this time around there is enough defensive improvement by the Texans to swing the outcome in their favor. It's definitely a "gulp" pick, but Schaub throws for big yardage every week and should do so here. Their offensive talent is superior makes the difference: Houston 27, Jacksonville 23 (HOU -1.5/over 47)

Denver (7-4) @ Kansas City (3-8): Thanks to a quirk in the schedule this is the first meeting of these bitter AFC West rivals. The storyline of course is the New England influence on both teams. The Chiefs are run by Scott Pioli and the Broncos are coached by Josh McDaniels, two former Patriots. In the wake of Notre Dame firing Charlie Weis there has even been buzz about KC bringing him in to run the offense. It would definitely be an intriguing 2010 storyline to see the two ex-Patriot offensive coordinators match wits. For now we'll settle for two innovative guys with vastly different personnel. Denver has a veteran quarterback who knows his role and a line capable of holding up. Kansas City has more New England influence with quarterback Matt Cassel, but his line is suspect and until Chris Chambers arrived he had nothing at receiver. Jamaal Charles has done some good work running the ball over the past three games with 49 carries for 254 yards (5.18 average) taking over for Larry Johnson. He can be a home run threat.

Looking at the stats it isn't even close. The Chiefs are -123.4 in total yards per game, and are third worst in both offense and defense. It is only their inspired play in the month of November (2-2) that has me pretty much dismissing that ineptitude. Let's look at it another way. When not playing San Diego, they have won 3 of their past 4. Prior to that, the Chiefs lost in overtime to NFC East leading Dallas. It's pretty compelling evidence of a possible upset brewing. The Broncos on the other hand avoided going 0-5 in November by reversing course and stomping the Giants 26-6 on Thanksgiving. As an added bonus to regaining momentum they also gained extra days of rest and preparation. I expect this game to get nasty. KC wants to play spoiler and when Arrowhead Stadium starts rocking it is a big advantage. However, one stat I can't overlook is sacks. Denver has a lot more recorded (32-14) and far fewer allowed (20-38). I don't believe the Chiefs can overcome having a few drives spoiled by sacks. The Broncos will have a more consistent offense and wear them down: Denver 21, Kansas City 17 (KC +6/under 39)

Tennessee (5-6) @ Indianapolis (11-0): Something has to give in this one. The Colts are a win here, and next week over a Denver team they have owned in recent years, from standing alone atop the record books with 22 consecutive regular season victories. The Titans have the fourth longest current winning streak, which as everyone knows by now is a dramatic turnaround from their 0-6 start. During that stretch Indy smoked them 31-9. Throw that result totally out the window. Vince Young was not yet the starting quarterback for Tennessee and their secondary was helpless to stop Peyton Manning because of injuries. A lot of people are citing VY's positive history against the Colts as a reason to expect the unexpected. It's true he split his first four meetings against them, but we're a couple years separated from the 2006-7 seasons even if all of those games were in fact very close. A lot of the problems were caused by him running the ball, something he has done a lot less of this season relatively speaking. Indy's defense is also playing at a very high level now.

The critical factor for me is scoring defense for the Colts. They are just ordinary in total yards, but in scoring rank third (16.7). The Young-led Titans give up a similarly low number (18.2). There is just one problem with that. None of the teams they have faced brought a quarterback like Peyton, and most lacked deep offensive talent. Even with a healthy secondary, on this field in this situation I will give the Colts bunches of passing yards. Tennessee counters with their speedster Chris Johnson, who according to one random blogger and a certain Bill Simmons needs a nickname. Didn't he have one last year? Some people have a short memory I guess. Anyway, CJ is chasing a man who once wore a Colts uniform (Eric Dickerson) for the single season rushing record of 2,105 yards. Playing in a dome certainly helps his chances. Can't you just visualize him sprinting for a long touchdown or two in this one? He might, I don't really care. I said last week on Twitter I'm offically a Vince Young believer. Unless he's playing Peyton: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 20 (IND -6/over 46)

Philadelphia (7-4) @ Atlanta (6-5): Unfortunately a lot of the focus surrounding this game will the return of Michael Vick. In reality he is not much of a factor on the field so there isn't much more to say about him. The Falcons would I'm sure love to rout the Eagles though just the same. Their dream scenario looks like a nightmare though. Matt Ryan saved this franchise from a black hole. He is out and Chris Redman is in at quarterback. Michael Turner was the driving force of their playoff run. He is mostly likely out as well. Two offensive linemen are nursing injuries and their top two wide receivers are listed as questionable. All of this adds up to trouble against an attacking Philly defense. Not that the Eagles are at full strength offensively. Brian Westbrook is still sidelined with concussion issues and DeSean Jackson will miss this game with cobwebs as well.

Injuries are a part of the game at this stage of the season and teams need to adjust. It's going to be tougher on Atlanta here by a long shot. The Eagles do a solid job of stopping the run and have the third most interceptions (18) and sixth most sacks (31). Redman might have been able to gut out a win in relief over Tampa Bay, but this is not the Bucs. Philadelphia comes in with purpose, still very much alive to win the NFC East or snag a wild card. Atlanta's only chance is the wild card route and a loss here would hurt them in spades because of a potential tiebreaker either against the Eagles or in regards to conference record. Desperation and playing at home, where they are 5-0, could offset their offensive injury woes for a while. Eventually they need to make some plays and score some points to keep up with McNabb because even without some pieces he will find a way to get his team down the field. It won't be easy, but I'll go with rookies McCoy and Maclin picking up the slack and the visiting defense wreaking havoc: Philadelphia 23, Atlanta 17 (PHI -5/under 44)

New Orleans (11-0) @ Washington (3-8): Do the words upset alert ring a bell? This is the definition of a "trap" game. The Saints are coming off a huge home win and riding high with an undefeated record. Now they hit the road on a short week against a team with plenty of defense to shut them down. The 'Skins have the #2 pass defense, allowing just 170.4 yards per game. Brees had a tough four game stretch where he turned it over 10 times, but sandwiched around those turnover issues he has only 3 including none over the past two weeks. He can keep the home fans sitting on their hands by protecting the football. Campbell is not going to lead Washington up and down the field. In fact, he might be the one giving it away. New Orleans is first in interceptions (22) and trails only Green Bay in lowest completion percentage allowed (53.7). A long injury report, including a pair of corners not expected to play, helps his chances.

Speaking of injuries, if Albert Haynesworth is out their upset bid could be squashed because the Saints can definitely run the ball effectively with Thomas and Bell. Washington's offensive line is already shuffled up because of injuries and Washington is down to Rock Cartwright at running back. If they can't establish a solid running game it puts more pressure on Campbell to beat an opportunistic pass defense. I definitely see this being a street fight type of a game. The Saints are being exposed to the elements for the first time all season really. The schedule maker gave them a break putting trips to Philadelphia and Buffalo early. Their only road games since then have been in Florida (Miami, Tampa Bay) or another dome (St. Louis). Usually I would be more concerned about a team like this with an explosive offense struggling on natural surface in cold weather. Their running success squashes a lot of that. It will slow down their team speed and take away some big plays. By the way, if you're thinking 16-0 weather won't be a factor again until the season finale at Carolina. I'm not rolling the upset dice here because I think Campbell will turn it over more than Brees, and the Saints have a healthy backfield other than Reggie Bush who is more of a receiving/returner threat anyway: New Orleans 22, Washington 19 (WAS +10/under 47)

Oakland (3-8) @ Pittsburgh (6-5): Let's get this out of the way. Neither team really cares very much about the bitterness of this rivalry back in the 70's. The Raiders had a brief stretch of greatness earlier this decade, and then the Steelers got hot and have stayed on top. Unless they are meeting with something on the line I don't see emotions factoring in. What does come into play is nasty weather. Oakland generally doesn't like the cold and only God knows what is in store in terms of precipitation. Pittsburgh is on the ropes a bit after losing at Baltimore on SNF and in a bit of turmoil with receiver Hines Ward questioning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger's decision not to play a crucial contest. He will appear in this one, and take on another former MAC quarterback Bruce Gradkowski. Since this one takes place just a couple days after the MAC title game I had to get that one in there right? Other than playing college ball in the same conference and there are really no other comparisons. Big Ben has multiple experienced receiving threats at his disposal while Gradkowski, who was born in Pittsburgh by the way, is looking at a very raw group of targets. He has provided a spark in terms of emotion compared to the stoic JaMarcus Russell, but has never thrown for more than 225 yards in a game.

This might not be your father's Steelers-Raiders showdown, but one aspect will look very familiar. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball plenty. There is no reason to get fancy with Big Ben seeing stars and Oakland's run defense allows the second most yards per game (161.1) in the NFL. Their defense can play inspired at times, mostly when playing in the Black Hole, but this is a different situation. They are out of it. The weather is cold. The Steelers are motivated. Who wants to tackle in that environment? I'm not saying this team will flat out quit, but it takes a lot to really play all out defensively when faced with these odds. Offensively Oakland has struggled to score all season and now stands dead last at 10.5 points per game. Even with safety Troy Polamalu the Pittsburgh defense is going to dial up plenty of problems for them. I'm seeing rout all the way. It could stay interesting for a while if Oakland's offensive line really shows up and the running game behind Bush and Fargas gets hot. Other than that, it's a snore: Pittsburgh 27, Oakland 6 (PIT -14.5/under 37)

Detroit (2-9) @ Cincinnati (8-3): A lot of holidays have passed since the Lions last won a road game. When the schedule came out they might have felt as if this was a game they could take, but now their 18th loss in a row seems likely. The Bengals have lost their "Bungles" title this season by sweeping the AFC North, including the two teams who played for a spot in the Super Bowl last season. Their toughness can no longer be questioned. The only lingering doubt surrounds their ability to thrive during prosperity. Since finishing 6-0 against their division foes this team has lost at Oakland and slugged past punchless Cleveland 16-7. Two huge road games (Minnesota, San Diego) are on deck which makes it harder to focus on a lowly opponent. On paper of course it looks like a mismatch. The Bengals have the #1 scoring defense (15.8) going up against a banged up rookie quarterback. The Lions are dead last (30.5) and face veteran Carson Palmer along with his solid running game. It looks like Cedric Benson will be back leading the way as well, even though another reclamation project Larry Johnson performed well last week.

It's really just a matter of by how much Cincinnati wins by right? Can we agree on that? Well, maybe. There is one big concern I have with their offense. They don't score a lot. In six of their past seven games the Bengals have posted between 16-18 points. Their defense has saved them. This seems like a breakout game because of the soft Detroit defense that has given up 26+ nine times already. The extra break after getting hammered 34-12 on Thanksgiving by Green Bay probably doesn't play into the outcome very much. Stafford isn't going to be totally recovered and probably should be on the sideline healing properly. He is going to take some hits in this game. Zimmer's defense has been awesome and won't give the visitors a chance to sniff upset: Cincinnati 31, Detroit 9 (CIN -13/under 42.5)

New England (7-4) @ Miami (5-6): These games are usually fun. Now that the Patriots have again failed to knock off an undefeated opponent and defend their status as the lone 16-0 team in NFL history they need to get back to business as usual. Their goals are still right in front of them with a lead in the division and 3-1 record against AFC East competition. Losing this game would really muddy the waters because it brings New England back to the pack in a big way. Winning would realistically take the Dolphins out of the division race with ostensibly a three game lead with four to play. Doing so means recording their first "real" road victory. Other than stomping Tampa Bay in London the Pats are 0-4 on the road.

In the first meeting Miami hung tough through three quarters, finally taking the lead after a drive spanning 16 plays and 10:04 off the game clock. Then New England threw a bomb to Randy Moss and never looked back. This time Ronnie Brown isn't around to wreak havoc on them in the Wildcat. Ricky Williams has 49 carries for 234 yards and 4 total touchdowns in two games since the injury, but doesn't strike the same fear in this young defense. An all-Michigan quarterback showdown is also one-sided. Even if Chad Henne came out with more hype and was drafted much sooner it goes without saying Tom Brady, even after a knee injury, is the player who will change this game. They are mad after getting wiped out at New Orleans on national television. Most of their offensive line is on the injury report. This is where I like them the most. Both pass defenses force low completion percentages, but Brady knows when to pick his spots and Henne is still figuring that out. Because the Dolphins aren't likely to dominate running the ball, especially with Brown and starting center Jake Grove out, this could mean more passing plays and bad results including interceptions. Miami hasn't done too much this season other than compete. This would be a season changing win if they can get it, but I'm not seeing them scoring enough: New England 30, Miami 20 (NE -4.5/over 45.5)

San Diego (8-3) @ Cleveland (1-10): The Browns are a mess and it's not going to be easy for them to deal with a rolling boulder like the Chargers. As the losses pile up they are using using these final games to figure out if Brady Quinn can be their quarterback of the future or at least boost his trade value prior to the draft. San Diego has no such quarterback issues. Philip Rivers is on pace for over 4,200 yards and has only 9 total turnovers on the season. Cleveland has thrown for just 147.4 yards per game as a team, second worst in the NFL. December games in cold weather usually lead to teams running the football, but that doesn't favor the home team either. Their best defender, Shaun Rogers, won't be manning the defensive line as he is out for the season. LaDainian Tomlinson has been surging of late with 5 touchdowns in his past three games. He has not run for 100 yards in a game since October 26, 2008 but this might serve as his "flashback" performance. Fans of LT would love to see him close out the decade he dominated with at least one more dominant fantasy football effort.

Honestly, I have a hard time breaking down any game involving the Browns who now have the NFL's worst offense and second worst defense. They give away an average of 162.7 yards per game. It's tough to win a lot when the other team rolls by you that much. In their past 7 games, more than half the points they scored came in the dramatic 38-37 loss at Detroit. This is a mismatch on every level. The travel doesn't even bother the Chargers much. They are 4-1 on the road having only lost on MNF at Pittsburgh. A victory over the Giants at the Meadowlands might have turned their season around in fact. I don't see any reason for them not to walk into this stadium and dominate. Quinn might go wild throwing the ball and put up some points, but not enough to scare the Chargers too much: San Diego 34, Cleveland 17 (SD -13.5/over 42.5)

Dallas (8-3) @ NY Giants (6-5): There are always a handful of games each week that most prognosticators are split on and this is one of them. The Cowboys have surged to the top of the NFC East and the Giants have plummeted. Dallas has really turned it up on the defensive side of the ball. A 24-7 win over Oakland on Thanksgiving was the fifth game in a row their defense has held an opponent to no more than 17 points. It comes at a good time because over the past four their offense has averaged just 14.5 points. Everyone has heard about this team's recent failures late in the season and Romo choking down the stretch. History certainly plays a part, but New York has to be up for getting back into this division race. I'm not sure they are. This team has been straight up crushed three times in their past six games. It should be noted that all of those were on the road although perhaps that is the point. New York had been dominant on the road since their Super Bowl season. Other than stomping the Raiders, all of their home games have been close. This is certainly not the group I expected to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

The biggest problem for the Giants is the health of Eli Manning. Rumors are swirling about him being shut down for the season even as he shows up as "probable" on the injury report. He has been quietly consistent in terms of passing yards, comfortably on pace for a new career high of 3,904. Turnovers (14) are a problem and he has been sacked 14 times in the past five games. That's a problem against an aggressive Dallas defense. In the first meeting quarterback play was a mismatch. Manning threw for 330 yards and Romo had 3 interceptions on 13/29 passing. Big runs from Barber and Jones kept the Cowboys in it on opening night of their heralded new stadium, but a field goal on the final gun won it 33-31 for the Giants. It's really just a matter of which teams shows up ready to go as if this was the start of the playoffs. New York has the fourth stingiest defense in terms of yards allowed, but Dallas is second where it counts - scoring. With blustery conditions I fully expect both teams to run a bunch and both defenses to force field goals to blow wide left or right. Scoring is going to be at a premium. I'm not sure which backfield is going to be fully operational, but I like the revenge factor. The home team isn't going away without a fight though I promise you that: Dallas 19, NY Giants 17 (DAL -1.5/under 45.5)

San Francisco (5-6) @ Seattle (4-7): When the 49ers won the first meeting 23-10 I had reason to say they had a definite leg up in the NFC West division race having beaten the two most recent champions to open the season. The rematches this week and next will determine if they are, as Heidi Klum might say, in or out. Two losses would just about officially eliminate them. Two wins would put them no more than a game behind the Cardinals with a sweep in their pocket for a tiebreaker. In other words, don't be fooled by the record this is a crucial game. The Seahawks are interested as well. They always play their best football at home and are motivated by having their quarterback sent to the hospital by San Francisco's Patrick Willis back in September. Seattle lost both games without Hasselbeck and while I wouldn't blame a loss at Indy on his absence one might argue the Chicago result at home might have changed, making this one a lot more interesting.

Other aspects have changed since these teams met. The 49ers have willingly changed quarterbacks to Alex Smith and are opening the playbook up to more passing. It makes sense with the emergence of tight end Vernon Davis as a Pro Bowl player and rookie Michael Crabtree catching on. Frank Gore can be a factor in the passing game out of the backfield as well. On the stat sheet these teams are pretty similar. Neither has done much to stop the pass, but while the 49ers give up more yards the Seahawks have allowed a lot more touchdown passes (20-11) and the NFL's third highest completion percentage (67.2). San Francisco's run defense should put an end to Justin Forsett's recent success and make Seattle's offense one-dimensional. That probably won't be a bad thing unless the weather turns against them. In a battle of quarterbacks I would usually take the better one, especially playing at home. However, I'm not very impressed with this team's play of late. The Seahawks might be a bit worn out from playing four of their past five on the road, but I'm gulping while I make this pick: San Francisco 23, Seattle 20 (SF -1/over 41)

Minnesota (10-1) @ Arizona (7-4): I'm not sure who keeps stats like this, but if Kurt Warner was up to starting would his combined age with Brett Favre have set an NFL record at 78 1/2 years old? Instead it appears Matt Leinart will be starting for the Cards and that is bad news for their division title hopes. Just a week ago things were looking good, leading the 49ers by a comfortable margin and just about the close out the Titans. Then 99 yards later Vince Young did it to Leinart again and now they are a week away from potentially trailing SF by a tiebreaker. There is not too much to figure out here. The Vikings have a standout defensive line and will certainly contain the run. They give up 81.6 yards per game and the Cardinals average 92.4 offensively. It's on Leinart's shoulders, under the SNF spotlight, to carry this team. He has not been able to get it done and against a defense leading the NFL with 40 sacks I wouldn't expect him to. In fact, even if Warner played he likely would not finish because at some point Jared Allen will get a shot in.

The flip side of this equation is the Cardinals allowing the fourth most passing yards (258.3) in the NFL although they are fourth in sacks (32). Favre has turned back the clock with just 3 interceptions on the season and has an excellent shot to set a new career low unless he throws 10 more in the final five games. His completion percentage (69.3) is also a career best. How has he managed this efficiency? Easy, he has Adrian Peterson in the backfield. "All Day" has been over 100 yards rushing just three times, but the threat has balanced the offense and opened up opportunities for Favre. It would take a lot more than home field for me to bet on Leinart over Favre in a primetime game. The sacks and turnover edge should go to the Vikings, as should the rushing yards. It is too much to overcome: Minnesota 27, Arizona 20 (MIN -3/under 48.5)

Baltimore (6-5) @ Green Bay (7-4): This won't be a Super Bowl preview, but it will impact wild card races in both conferences and have a playoff feel on MNF. The Ravens just saved their season in primetime on SNF, beating the hated Steelers in OT. The Packers are a lot more rested having played on Thanksgiving and carry the momentum of three consecutive wins. The NFC wild card is theirs if they continue to win. If you are ready for some defense you came to the right place. Green Bay is #2 in total yards allowed per game (281.5) and Baltimore is #4 in scoring defense (17.1). The transition to a 3-4 has been a rousing success for the Packers, but losing Kampman and Harris didn't hurt them against the lowly Lions. It will show up here. Flacco has snapped out of a funk with 545 yards passing over the past two weeks, but has just 2 touchdown passes in his last five outings. He has to match scores with Aaron Rodgers if the Ravens are going to pull the upset. Even if he can't beat Favre's Vikings, Rodgers has been tremendous this season. He is on pace for over 4,500 yards passing and has only 8 total turnovers. Only once in the past 9 games has he failed to throw multiple touchdown passes, and that was during their 17-7 win over Dallas. The Ravens are vulnerable at the corner position and the Packers have multiple quality receivers at their disposal.

If the Ravens had their way, they would just run it right down the middle on this frozen tundra, but they are going up against a defense giving up only 3.6 yards per carry and 89.1 a game. I don't see them grinding it out and keeping Rodgers on the sidelines. It will be up to their defense to harrass Rodgers, taking advantage of a struggling offensive line, and possibly scoring some points of their own. Baltimore has a favorable closing schedule and has to impose some of their will to win this game if they want to start a playoff push. Green Bay is in an even better position and ultimately I like their advantage in the passing game to pave the way, especially with Suggs out of the lineup: Green Bay 23, Baltimore 16 (GB -3/under 43.5)