I have read stories about the casinos taking it in the shorts for various reasons. None of that is the result of my picks I can tell you that. I generally take the Han Solo approach to making my selections. In other words – never tell me the odds! I just pick a reasonable score and assign the spread and over/under to the result, adjust a point or two when necessary to avoid hitting it on the nose. It hasn’t worked out very well. Last week I went 6-10 against the spread and seem doomed to finish below sea level at 86-105-1. Ugly. In past seasons I have usually been able to mange the over/under, but after going 7-9 I’m still trailing there as well at 92-96-4. Now shall I move on to some good news? Even with two frustrating misses on picks I indicated were worthy of a “gulp” (San Francisco, Houston) I went 10-6 straight up and stand 133-59 overall. Enough about me, let’s talk football.

 

 

Pittsburgh (6-6) @ Cleveland (1-11): After blowing their third lead in the final quarter against Oakland the Steelers are suddenly and shockingly out of it in the AFC North. Yes, they can go 4-0 and Cincinnati can go 0-4, but realistically it’s over. Even more surprising, they are chasing Jacksonville for the wild card. The same Jags who week before last were swamped 20-3 at San Francisco. At least they can still talk playoffs. The only things the rival Browns are talking about is potentially holding the #1 overall draft pick, who might be coaching the team and what their future holds at the quarterback position.

 

Brady Quinn has looked in spots like a first round draft pick, but his game log reads like a volatile stock. He has thrown for 99, 304, 100 and 271 yards in the past four games. The two better efforts produced 7 touchdown passes and the other two none. A big positive is no interceptions in his last three games which is no easy feat because he threw the ball 112 times. Usually I would say he is in for a tough go of it, especially because the aforementioned dud performances came against the other two division rivals. However, Pittsburgh’s secondary is a mess. Two rookies could start and difference making safety Troy Polamalu might be out for the season the way things look at the moment. Rookie Louis Murphy getting open in clutch time last week was a huge red flag.

 

If the Browns are thinking upset, their first task is stopping the Steelers. Their defense is dead last in total yards per game (400.3). Last week was the eighth time the unit allowed 27+ points. One of those was the first meeting, won by Pittsburgh 27-14. It was win #12 in a row in the series, but Derek Anderson was the quarterback in that one. He went 9/24 for 122 yards. Quinn makes his first start against the Steelers and it means a lot to him as an Ohio native familiar with the hatred between these teams. Hines Ward could be out for Pittsburgh, which puts pressure on the young offensive playmakers. I’m seeing a tight, low scoring affair. Big Ben proved in the first meeting he can pass the ball on this defense, to the tune of 417 yards. However, we have seen some close scores the last three seasons (10-6, 31-28, 24-20) in addition to a comfortable win, which we already had: Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 14 (CLE +10/over 33)

 

New Orleans (12-0) @ Atlanta (6-6): Before the season I actually pegged these teams to be battling for a wild card, with the Saints nudging their way in and the Falcons out. Well, New Orleans has obviously exceeded my expectations. Historically I always have a soft spot for them only to be disappointed when they fail to put it all together. This season has been a dream thus far, and continued to bizarre trend of teams going bottoms up in the NFC South. Take heart Tampa Bay. Your team might be 1-11, but history says the playoffs are happening in 2010. As for the Falcons, well, I knew this season was going to be a side step.

 

This game reminds me of a scene out of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid. Can you guess which one? Atlanta’s offense is outnumbered so to speak and really has no chance on paper to score with New Orleans. Injuries are part of predictions at this time of the season, which makes my job even harder. At this point it appears quarterback Matt Ryan’s return is tied to three injured offensive linemen being able to start. Top running back Michael Turner is also questionable although his absence is the least of their problems. Simply stated, this could be a second string offense taking the field with the playoffs on the line.

 

The Saints have their injury issues, notably in the secondary. Is Chris Redman going to take full advantage of that though? With their season nearly on the line last week at home the Eagles whipped them so badly even Michael Vick got into the action during a 34-7 rout. Unless some of the injured players, or should I say most of them, get on the field it could easily be a similar result. The Saints just had their scare last week in Washington, escaping in OT after an improbable finish. This isn’t a bitter rivalry, but nonetheless they would like to put their divisional rival out of the mix: New Orleans 27, Atlanta 14 (NO -10/under 51)

 

Denver (8-4) @ Indianapolis (12-0): It will take a while to list everything on the line for the Colts. For starters how about 22 regular season wins in a row? I think it is fitting that a team led by former New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is standing in their way. Of course, the Pats had their own chance to wreck the streak before it exceeded their record. We know how that fourth down attempt turned out. Did Bill Belichick maybe place a few phone calls offering helpful advice this week? Probably not, he is buried in his own problems. In addition to the record, a win clinches home field throughout the AFC playoffs which means no trip to chilly Cincinnati or nemesis San Diego. Oh, and 19-0 is still on the table.

 

All decade long Peyton Manning has dominated the Broncos. I say this because twice Denver beat Indy late in the season when the team was resting starters for a playoff push. He played in one of those the full 60, but they didn’t show up as evidenced by turning a 31-17 loss into a 41-10 blowout weeks later. Ironically, if this game had been scheduled a couple of weeks later it might have helped the visitors earn another easy win. Peyton has won his last four and thrown 15 touchdown passes, which in case you’re terrible at math would mean 60 over a full season played against them. That’s a lot even for him.

 

On the injury front, Denver loses right tackle Ryan Harris who is gone for the season. Tyler Polumbus is no slouch on most weeks, but this is Robert Mathis coming at him opposite of Dwight Freeney. Brandon Gobin is another option for the Broncos if he struggles. I try not to overreact to injuries. In this case it could drastically change the play calling for McDaniels and he is already limited with Orton at quarterback. He is actually quite capable on the road, and his interception total shrinks from 25 to 9 over basically the same number of games (23 home, 22 away) in his career. My feeling is that the Broncos are going to be very feisty here, but while their defense can counter the dangerous tandem of Wayne and Clark by putting Bailey and Dawkins on them, do you really think that stops Manning? I don’t. Coyer once led this Denver defense and therefore has extra motivation for his group to stop whatever McDaniels throws at them. It’s a fight and perfection might end, but I’m not predicting it: Indianapolis 27, Denver 23 (DEN +7/over 44)

 

Seattle (5-7) @ Houston (5-7): This was supposed to be the season for the Texans to finally make the playoffs. Some idiots, like for example me, even predicted a wild card. Unfortunately, their kicker Kris Brown came down with a serious case of the “yips” and put them out of contention. The Seahawks are virtually out of it as well, but their expectations coming into the season were not nearly as high. Still, with Hasselbeck at quarterback they have been a threat at home. On the road, well, not so much. They finally broke through with a win at St. Louis, but in their previous five tries lost by 11+ points. The Texans aren’t exactly dominant at home (2-4). In their favor Houston has beaten both Bay Area teams so they are going for 3-0 against the West.

 

On the stat sheet this game is rather easy to figure out. Neither team can run the ball very effectively. Seattle has gotten a boost from Justin Forsett. Well, every other week at least over the past four. In two even weeks (like now) he has 44 touches for 279 total yards and 3 touchdowns. In odd weeks he has been snuffed in the running game (13 rushes, 18 yards) and only contributed out of the backfield (11 receptions, 105 yards) with a single touchdown period. He has to be at his best against a defense that is better than most think.

 

The defenses are fairly comparable. A slight edge goes to Houston with a superior pass defense, which is where the game turns. Matt Schaub seems to have gotten over his injured shoulder. He might have freaked out a bit considering last week was game #12. You see, in two previous seasons with the team he played 11. Playing through an injury is part of being a player in the NFL and particularly at quarterback because the drop in play is usually significant from starter to backup. I look for Schaub to get straightened out and stop their slide at four: Houston 28, Seattle 20 (HOU -6.5/over 44.5)

 

Carolina (5-7) @ New England (7-5): This is one of two fairly recent Super Bowl rematches of very memorable games. There are actually three in total this week although I feel a bit like Cliff Claven sharing that information. Obviously a lot of the impact players on both sides are gone. Even if quarterback Jake Delhomme is still around for the Panthers he will not start due to injury. The Patriot defense is trying to find a new identity after losing so many veterans. Things are getting desperate to the point of Belichick laying down the law by turning player away from the facility for being 9 minutes late to a meeting. This is something teams do when they are coming off a season finishing 3-13, not the (according to some) team of the decade.

 

In this game it is rather simple. For all New England’s issues they are 6-0 at home and have not lost three in a row since October 2002. That was the only season out of four during their mini-dynasty the Pats failed to win the Super Bowl and the streak cost them a shot to defend their first title in the playoffs. Their dominance of the AFC East is on the line now after a tough 22-21 loss at Miami last week. If there is a time for them to come out punching it is now.

 

The Panthers are finished. Matt Moore directed them to a 16-6 win at hopeless Tampa Bay last week, but only because rookie Josh Freeman kept throwing red zone interceptions. They were behind in total yards (469-309) and first downs (22-15) but those turnovers and two missed field goals doomed the home team. I don’t think we will see Brady throw 5 picks and melt down inside enemy territory. If that happens I might give up predicting games for good. Carolina is going to hope their running game keeps them competitive and as we have seen this season, notably last week when Oakland won at Pittsburgh, anything can happen in the fourth quarter. Not this time: New England 30, Carolina 12 (NE -13/under 44)

 

Buffalo (4-8) @ Kansas City (3-9): There really isn’t anything at stake in this one other than draft positioning and future employment for players who risk being cut if they don’t show something in the season’s final few games. The last meeting was a rout by the Bills, 54-31, almost exactly one year ago. Throwing out their surprising 31-14 win over Miami, Buffalo has scored 55 points over the past 4 games total. Kansas City has given up 43 and 44 the past two weeks though so anything is possible. There isn’t too much to draw from that meeting because both teams are led by new head coaches and starting quarterbacks.

 

This season both teams have struggled to move the football, ranking ahead of only Cleveland and Oakland in total yards. Passing has been the biggest problem with both in the bottom 5 at 167 yards per game. Things got so bad for “golden boy” Matt Cassel he was benched during last week’s ugly 44-13 home loss to Denver. Ryan Fitzpatrick is the other side of that coin having replaced Trent Edwards. He had been coming off two solid performances before falling flat against the Jets in Toronto, completing just 9/23 passes for 98 yards. Heck, three weeks ago he had 98 on one pass to T.O.

 

Defensively, the Chiefs are the NFL’s worst thanks to 394.6 total yards allowed per game. However, the Bills have been gouged for an NFL high 172.1 rushing yards which gives Kansas City a good chance to go right at them with Jamaal Charles. Once that happens suddenly Cassel gains a bit of confidence and is able to get the ball down the field occasionally to Chambers. Also, even if their defense has been terrible on paper they are capable of turning in a solid performance at home where they took Dallas to OT and beat Pittsburgh. Even though Buffalo has played better of late, only to fade in the fourth quarter I’m not crazy about their makeshift offensive line. This game is won on strategy and that strategy is to run, run, run and hit Chambers when necessary. By controlling the clock and the momentum I think the Chiefs can win what I consider an upset: Kansas City 20, Buffalo 17 (KC +2/under 37.5)

 

Detroit (2-10) @ Baltimore (6-6): Generally when I start writing a prediction I have not decided which team is going to win. In this case it is very tough to keep an open mind. The visiting Lions were out of it a long time ago, but at least can claim a huge improvement over last year’s winless campaign. It isn’t just the two wins. The effort is there and a quarterback is in place – just not this week. Matthew Stafford is sitting out the third game of his rookie campaign and most people (myself included) believe it was insane for him to be playing the past two weeks. A third consecutive nasty defense apparently was cause for Jim Schwartz to finally pull the plug. In steps disgruntled backup Daunte Culpepper against a team with plenty to play for. After Pittsburgh’s loss Thursday night their wild card hopes are very much alive. Three more teams with a losing record (remember, the Steelers are 6-7) await them to close the season. If this defense can tighten up just a little bit, not that they have been bad thus far, it could easily result in a 10-6 record and possible playoff run.

 

Their offense has suffered because the running game is no longer dominant. Even with a better average rush (4.2 compared to 4.0 in 2008) the team has seen their yards per game drop from 148.5 to 112.8. Those 35 some odd yards are a big drop off. All of the talk before the season was about Ray Rice breaking out after being third on the team with 454 rushing yards as a rookie and he does lead the team with 875. However, Le’Ron McClain was powering over defenders last year en route to a solid 902 yards. He has just 30 carries this season. Once top tier rusher Willis McGahee has gotten the football only 75 times after getting 170 carries in 2008. The three-headed monster has changed dramatically which has meant more passing. Flacco’s output it up 240.1 yards per game from 185.7 as a rookie. Most sane people will tell you they would rather run over an opponent. It is safer because fumbles are a lot rarer than interceptions and you don’t get sacked attempting a run.

 

This game provides an opportunity to regain any lost momentum and get their offense in order. Even if they prefer running the ball, Detroit’s pass defense has been a glaring weakness with an NFL high 274.8 yards per game allowed and NFL worst 28 touchdowns. In half his starts this season Flacco has failed to reach 200 yards. He doesn’t have a deep set of receivers by any stretch of the imagination. Veteran Derrick Mason again leads the team and has been critical to their limited offensive success. There is no question this could turn into a rout in a hurry. Culpepper thinks he can still play and the Ravens are beaten up in the secondary big time which could lead to some huge gains by Calvin Johnson. Miracles aside, this is a playoff contender at home against a sorry franchise: Baltimore 27, Detroit 9 (BAL -13/under 39.5)

 

Cincinnati (9-3) @ Minnesota (10-2): Into the season both franchises had reason for optimism, but I don’t think either expected things to go this well. The Bengals are a different team with Carson Palmer at quarterback although in fairness their tremendous success has been the result of Zimmer’s outstanding defense which received an infusion of rookie talent. The Vikings are also different with #4 playing quarterback and with six games of 270+ passing yards it is safe to say he has been the missing piece required for them to reach their full potential. There are still questions about him fading down the stretch because after all the guy is 40. He threw 2 interceptions in last week’s loss at Arizona on SNF after tossing just 3 over the first 11 games. Still, if the final quartet of games goes fairly well for him (and he doesn’t sit out with playoff seeding locked) this might be his finest statistical season ever.

 

The high profile quarterbacks are not the real story here. Not even guys known as “All Day” and Ochocinco get top billing. This is about stout defenses. Cincinnati is fourth in total defense and Minnesota is eighth. The Bengals are first against the run with the Vikings second. It’s too bad this game will not be played outdoors because I love a good defensive battle in December weather. Instead it is going to be about speed and the ability of players to be in position to make tackles. Adrian Peterson has been a victim of the “Favre effect” losing roughly 2 ½ carries per game because now the team can throw the ball on any down, but has he lost his ability to take over a game? The last three times he ran the ball a lot (25, 24, 25) failed to run for 100 yards and averaged a downright human 3.57 per carry. Hey, I’m just citing statistics here. I wouldn’t be stunned to see him turn in another 80-90 yards here as opposed to one of those weeks that if you’re playing against his team in FFL you can forget it.

 

In a way I think losing helped Minnesota. They had been on such a roll against bad teams and were due for a loss when finally faced with a quality opponent. Here comes another one, and while this one is at home is that such a huge advantage? I’m not sure. They sputtered past San Francisco, Green Bay and Baltimore by an average of 4 points in the dome and two of those games easily could have gone against them. The Bengals lost their trip to Oakland, but won their previous 5 road games and going to California is almost a mulligan. Nearly every game they have been involved in has come down to the wire which helps them if they can keep it tight. Working against them is having played three of the NFL’s worst teams leading up to this one. They scored just 56 points in those games and it will take more than 18.7 points to beat the Vikings who of course have a tougher defense than the Lions, Browns or Raiders. I know I have been wrong picking against them plenty of times this season, but this time I’m pretty confident: Minnesota 24, Cincinnati 16 (MIN -6/under 44)

 

NY Jets (6-6) @ Tampa Bay (1-11): It would have been nice for draft nuts like me to see a pair of rookies square off, but quarterback Mark Sanchez is out with an injury. Josh Freeman could probably use a break too after a mind blowing effort against Carolina. He ended several long second half drives with interceptions and literally threw the game away. Head coach Raheem Morris would love to lean on his running game in situations like that, and presumably is going to call for either Williams or Ward to carry the football in the red zone. Unfortunately this week they run up against the NFL’s #2 defense in total yards. Rex Ryan’s defense is not dominant against the run with Kris Jenkins out of the mix, but with a shut down corner capable of taking away one receiver his options open up. He will dial up something to create sacks on their rookie quarterback and put them in obvious passing situations.

 

I give the Bucs credit for not throwing in the proverbial towel on what is obviously a lost season. Their defense kept them alive the past two weeks on the road. The same is true for the Jets in recent weeks while their offense sputtered. It’s pretty clear what their strategy will be in this situation. Kellen Clemens is not going to throw the ball much and shouldn’t need to. Tampa Bay gives up 160.1 rushing yards per game and New York leads the NFL with 168.6. In a game between low scoring offenses I will take the one likely to run for 160-170 yards every time. Just for good measure, the Jets are the NFL’s top pass defense thanks in large part to Revis. Once they get ahead it should stay that way in what I see as a very ugly game: NY Jets 20, Tampa Bay 15 (NYJ -3/under 36.5)

 

Miami (6-6) @ Jacksonville (7-5): You might think this is a pretty big rivalry in the state of Florida, but hasn’t materialized of late. The teams have met just twice since 2003, with the visiting team winning each meeting by an identical score of 24-10. Nevertheless, even if the Jags can’t fill the seats this game will have a playoff feel. Jacksonville might be able to recover from a loss because it is possible for them to catch Indianapolis taking their foot off the gas next week and they close at Cleveland, but it would surprise me to see them win at New England and 9-7 will not cut it. Miami’s remaining schedule features fringe wild card contenders, but if you read the previous sentence you will know that winning out after losing this one is irrelevant in all likelihood.

 

Now that the stakes are set, who has the edge? Miami turned their season upside down by upsetting New England 22-21 last week with a furious comeback. It is clear they can play with anyone. Other than their 31-14 loss to Buffalo when they gave up a bunch of points late Miami has not lost by more than 12 points. Jacksonville likewise overturned a disastrous loss to get past Houston after nearly blowing a big lead. Their weakness is the road considering their three losses by 17+ points. At home lately they are the cardiac bunch winning by no more than 5 points in their last four. Too bad no one could watch it unfold on television.

 

All signs point to a tight finish. When the playoffs are on the line everyone ratchets up the intensity. An interesting stat jumping out at me (which I might have just invented) is yards per point. The Dolphins get a point for every 14.06 yards of offense while the Jaguars need 18.71. This is usually a product of mistakes such as turnovers, sacks and missed field goals. Miami for my money is sound. Come to think of it, you can forget about penalties deciding this game. The Dolphins are tied for the NFL low with 59 and the Jaguars have 60.

 

Defensively it is impossible to separate the teams in pass or rushing defense other than to note Miami allows just 57.8% of passes to be completed against them while Jacksonville is at 65.5%. The Dolphins also give up fewer touchdown passes (15-20) and have a lot more sacks (35-12). This only comes into play if Garrard is forced into passing situations. He makes me nervous with just 10 touchdown passes. Even Alex Smith has 13 and he didn’t get onto the field until his team’s sixth game. Two rookies are ahead of him as well. Henne is coming off such a strong effort (335 yards) and while I’m not crazy about their offensive line woes it doesn’t seem to be slowing them down. I have to discount home field advantage because I figure a lot of fans will make the trip. Can you tell it has been tough for me to decide on this one? I’m making this call based more on the coaching staff because I think both teams will be able to run quite effectively. The difference is a few key play calls and coaching decisions: Miami 23, Jacksonville 20 (MIA +3/under 44)

 

Green Bay (8-4) @ Chicago (5-7): Since the Packers were first to rain on the “we’ve got Cutler!” parade with a week 1 victory I guess it is only fitting for them to officially throw dirt on their “we’re not making the playoffs!” grave right? It was a typical black and blue NFC North affair the first time and although Green Bay won 21-15 on the scoreboard they finished with just 226 total yards and 12 first downs. It was the first time their new 3-4 defense under Dom Capers was unveiled and the 4 interceptions were clearly the difference. Two of them came in the first half after Chicago had driven the ball 51 and 68 yards.

 

Quite frankly it befuddles me why the Packers are not battling for conference supremacy, and not just because I picked them to win the division. Their scoring offense is seventh in the NFL (26.9) and their total defense is first (273.5 yards). All that leaves is special teams, which is the weak link. Kapinos is a mediocre punter in terms of average (44.0) and has placed just 13 punts inside the 20. Only one guy is worse in that department and he kicks for the Saints so he has just 40 attempts. Their returns and coverage are both subpar and they have the eighth worst field goal conversion percentage (75.9). So, mystery solved. It’s a good thing special teams is just one small part of the equation.

 

The problem for the Bears is that they are totally one-dimensional. Their running game has stalled all season and ranks ahead of only the Colts who don’t care much about it. All of the pressure falls on Cutler who will likely be missing leading receiver Devin Hester. Charles Woodson is then free to lock down whatever threat they feel is most pressing. Even against the Rams, hardly a shut down defense, they only put up 17 on this field last week. It sure feels to me like they have closed up shop for the season. I know how rivalry games are and they will be motivated to ruin the Packers who are worn out a bit after dealing with Baltimore. They’re also on a short work week. That makes it a little closer: Green Bay 23, Chicago 10 (GB -3.5/under 41.5)

 

St. Louis (1-11) @ Tennessee (5-7): This is the second Super Bowl rematch of the week. Nearly a decade has passed, but head coach Jeff Fisher continues coaching the Titans. In this league that means a lot. His hot seat has cooled considerably thanks to Vince Young going 5-1 as a starter. There are questions about his availability this week, but I’m honestly not sure it matters. This is about running the ball straight at a helpless opponent. Chris Johnson wants to set the single season rushing record, which by the way is held by former Ram Eric Dickerson. He has some catching up to do if he wants to get there and no time to lose. When a team averages 165.8 yards rushing per game takes on one giving up 146.2 the game plan is rather simple. Give it to CJ 25 times, take the 150 yards and walk off a winner.

 

For the Rams to have a shot Kyle Boller might need to be a little more aggressive. Steven Jackson will be out to show something in a battle of top running backs, but he is taking on a stout run defense on the road. Just once over the past ten games has he failed to reach 22 carries though so Jackson will have his chances to do some damage. As a result this should be quick game. Neither team is going to do much passing. On paper Boller might seem to have a chance against a statistically poor secondary, but the unit has gotten healthy in recent weeks and is a lot better. Collins or Young won’t be passing by design. Why bother? They want CJ to get the record and this is a perfect opportunity to put him on track: Tennessee 27, St. Louis 10 (TEN -13/under 41.5)

 

Washington (3-9) @ Oakland (4-8): The final Super Bowl rematch is one few players on the field remember. That’s because not many of them were alive when the Raiders won Super Bowl XVIII over the Redskins while calling Los Angeles home. Both teams would love to get those glory days of three championships going again. In fact, both might have been considered a dynasty if the wins had come in the same decade or other teams been a little less dominant. Oakland won 3 out of 7 Super Bowls culminating with their aforementioned win. They were without question the team of the late 70’s-early 80’s but that is not very catchy now is it? Washington went to 4 over a 10 year span and if not for Marcus Allen might have gotten a lot more recognition because they won the other three. However, the 49ers reeled off 4 titles in the 80’s and overshadowed them.

 

Past glory aside, comparisons can also be made today. Each team has a controversial owner. The defenses carry most of the load without much help from the offense. Fan bases on both sides are as passionate as they come. Lately they are also playing at a very high level despite the losing records. The Redskins have lost the past three games by a total of 7 points to teams who might all wind up in the NFC playoffs. Last week’s loss to New Orleans was mind blowing because of the short field goal miss and Suisham has justifiably been cut as a result. He also missed two attempts during their 7-6 loss at Dallas. They are now 2-7 in one score games. Things are tight in the NFL and that just doesn’t cut it.

 

Oakland’s surge is a direct result of Bruce Gradkowski entering at quarterback. Last week’s triple comeback at Pittsburgh was one for the ages in a storied rivalry. They have already knocked off playoff contenders Philadelphia and Cincinnati in the Black Hole, largely due to their defensive effort. The only thing stopping them is consistency. Big plays have plagued them all season. Fortunately for them, Washington’s offense is lacking playmakers. The backfield is thin due to injury and while the young receivers have shown promise one of them is going to be paired up with Asomugha. I like the surging offense for the Redskins who have posted 54 points the past two weeks, but they are 0-6 on the road and going to California is typically very tough on teams from the east. Don’t freak out Raider Nation, but I think your franchise could win three of four. Hey, with a win at Cleveland in a few weeks this might be a 6-10 season which is the best since losing Super Bowl XXXVII: Oakland 17, Washington 14 (OAK +1/under 37.5)

 

San Diego (9-3) @ Dallas (8-4): I can already tell this is going to be a tough call. The Cowboys are 5-1 in their new stadium and would be perfect if they hadn’t choked the opener against the Giants. The Chargers are 5-1 on the road and hot as a pistol. Virtually all of the talk surrounding this game is about San Diego dominating this time of year and Dallas falling flat. Norv Turner was up for the job when Wade Phillips was hired and it’s too bad he couldn’t have both – one to run the defense and other to run the offense. Maybe they could have alternated weeks being in charge of the whole team. You’re right, it’s insane, but can you imagine?

 

Instead Turner always has his Chargers ready for a playoff push. Meanwhile Phillips can’t seem to get his team loose and has yet to win a playoff game despite a roster full of talent. Everyone wants to say “here we go again” for Dallas after they lost at the Giants last week, but it was a bizarre game. Romo threw 55 times, more than doubling Manning’s 25. Their trio of backs all saw action, but combined for just 45 yards on only 23 carries. To beat San Diego they will have to stick with the run a lot more. The Chargers have a very average run defense and a potent Dallas attack should present problems all over the field.

 

Defensively the Cowboys are fifth where it counts – scoring (17.8). They also should be able to focus on containing Rivers and his big, athletic receivers although Tomlinson is making a rare appearance in Texas and will be motivated to provide a memorable swan song. Both teams have a big game next week. The Cowboys try to gain a competitive edge over currently undefeated New Orleans on the road in advance of a potential playoff meeting, and the Chargers host Cincinnati trying to gain home field advantage over them in the AFC. I really want to take the visitors, but I was burned doing that twice last week so I’m gulping down hard and going the other way: Dallas 26, San Diego 22 (DAL -3/under 48.5)

 

Philadelphia (8-4) @ NY Giants (7-5): By kickoff this game might be a battle for first place in the NFC East. If the Cowboys lose, the Giants could set up a three-way tie with three games to play which would make for some great television down the stretch. For that to happen New York needs to reverse a lot of negative history against the Eagles. I should know, I had them winning at Philly earlier this season only to watch wide eyed at an offensive and defensive assault in the first half. When it was over the visitors trailed 30-7 and the final score was 40-17. Stacking up the odds even more, McNabb won both times in this stadium last season and of course one of those ended their bid at repeating as champs.

 

It is often tough to pinpoint why one team can have such an edge over another, but one thing I see is taking advantage of a weakened group of linebackers. The Giants can definitely rush the passer. McNabb is mobile enough to avoid it and can get the ball to his speedy playmakers over the middle when pressed and deep down the field when the line holds up. DeSean Jackson returns to the lineup after being held out with a concussion last week and loves the spotlight of national television. With Aaron Ross being forced to move over to safety I think you know where I’m going with this. The Giants have allowed 21 touchdown passes, sixth most in the NFL, despite giving up just 199.0 yards passing per game (seventh lowest).

 

On the other side, the Eagles have 20 interceptions and 33 sacks on the season. I thought Eli Manning was hurting before last week and he still might be. After this week I will know for sure because he is likely to get pushed around. His young receivers have picked up the slack left by Plaxico Burress nicely this season, but Philadelphia has the secondary to cover them up and the pass rush to wreak havoc. In the past New York would just run the ball a ton in a game like this, at home in December, but not against this defense giving up just 3.8 yards per carry. I can see them putting up a passionate fight, just like last week’s huge win over Dallas. Teams generally don’t get lucky twice in a row and the clock finally strikes midnight on them: Philadelphia 23, NY Giants 20 (PHI +1/under 44)

 

Arizona (8-4) @ San Francisco (5-7): If things had broken differently for both teams last week ESPN would have had themselves a huge game for MNF. Instead, the 49ers lost a heartbreaker in Seattle and the Cardinals toasted Minnesota on SNF. As a result, Arizona can clinch the NFC West with a win and render the “Super Bowl loser’s curse” irrelevant to teams in their division because the last team to make the playoffs after losing the big one was Seattle. I have to say, San Francisco’s demise from their 3-1 start has been hard to watch. They have plenty of talent, but are now 2-6 in one score games. Alex Smith put up another pretty stat line last week with 310 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, but a failed fourth down from the 1 was just the highlight of many lost opportunities in their 20-17 loss to the Seahawks.

 

There is certainly a letdown factor for the Cardinals, but playing in primetime again should take care of that. Kurt Warner might be a concussion away from his career ending. Until then he is riding the wave. Even missing a game he is still on pace for over 4,000 yards passing. The three previous times he reached that mark his team ended the season in the Super Bowl. It’s hard not to like their chances again because although the Cards are likely the #3 seed at best, both of the top seeds are dome teams. Warner knows a little about playing in a dome.

 

I’m throwing the first meeting out because September 13 was a long, long time ago. The one thing I take from it is that neither team was able to run the ball. The same will probably be true in the rematch. These are two of the six most generous pass defenses with a key difference. Arizona gives up a much lower completion percentage (57.7) than San Francisco (63.0). They also have a huge edge at quarterback. If both teams are able to throw, who do you think wins the shootout? At 5-1 the road hasn’t been an issue this season for the Cardinals. Three of those wins were by at least two touchdowns. I’m usually prone to picking the 49ers at home if it’s close, but considering the quarterbacks in play I can’t do it: Arizona 30, San Francisco 20 (AZ -3.5/over 44.5)