Having playoffs in the NFL is such a drag. The regular season means nothing. I wish it was like college football and journalists could just vote Indianapolis and New Orleans into the Super Bowl. I’m sure the sponsor would go along with that insanity. My point is that, even with a few things decided there is still plenty left to fight for during the final few weeks of the regular season. Figuring out which eliminated teams still want to play spoiler becomes my problem. Clearly Cleveland did to open the week, but in a rivalry game everyone should have expected that if not predicted it. San Francisco was out in most people’s book yet ended the week with another upset. Those were two of my misses if you have not figured it out. I knew about San Diego and Dallas heading in different directions when the calendar turns to December, and ignored it. Can I blame Oakland’s loss on Gradkowkski? How about 3,000 yards in penalties? A third AFC West miss on my books was Kansas City literally throwing away their game against Buffalo. Some day I’ll learn how to predict turnovers.

 

The final tally was 11-5 straight up and a lost opportunity to put myself in great position for the stretch run. My overall mark is now 144-64. I did finally turn in a respectable mark against Vegas, going 9-7 versus the spread (95-112-1) and 8-7-1 on the over/under (100-103-5). With two undefeated teams appearing on NFL Network what are we waiting for? Let’s pick some games.

 

 

Indianapolis (13-0) @ Jacksonville (7-6): A casual onlooker would probably pick the Jags to win this game. College football fans familiar with ranked teams losing to unranked opponents on the road while playing on Thursday night definitely would. The signs are there to look upset. After all, the Colts just secured the #1 seed. Not a spot in the playoffs. Not a division title. Not a bye week. They have the whole AFC looking up at them no matter what happens in the final three weeks of the season. This isn’t the WAC they have wrapped up and if their rookie coach Jim Caldwell does not win coach of the year something is very, very wrong. I’m starting to wonder if Tony Dungy might be feeling a little insecure. He left the Bucs. The next season they won the Super Bowl. He left the Colts. The next season they might go 19-0. Back to my point, the Colts could be in “let up” mode. The Jags are pushing for a wild card.

 

Can Indy, possibly playing on cruise control, hit the road and beat a team that gave them all sorts of trouble opening day? Manning had his usual stellar outing, 28/28 for 301 yards, that day and the Colts sweated out a 14-12 win. Right now he is their entire offense. He made Pierre Garcon a household name this season. I’m not sure any other quarterback in the NFL could have done that, and I mean no disrespect to Garcon. Their backfield was supposed to be bolstered by first round rookie Donald Brown, but he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. A side effect of drafting him, however, has been improved play from Joseph Addai who had regressed in 2008. They still lack a top tier back, but when your offense is #4 in total yards and #5 in scoring does it really matter?

 

The Jags counter with a little MJD. Jones-Drew is a firecracker, but running behind a pair of rookie tackles he did not reach elite running back status this season. In other words he is not capable of carrying his team on a regular basis. David Garrard is a serviceable quarterback, and at times outstanding. He lacks the targets at Manning’s disposal for one thing, and the talent to make receivers better as well. Of his 10 touchdown passes throw this season 7 of them came in three games, which of course leaves just 3 spread out over his remaining 10 starts. The key factor here is hidden. It’s the Colts on defense. If the offense rests a bit, the defense typically does not. Keep this in mind as they look to extend an NFL record winning streak and pursue 19-0. They are #2 in scoring defense at just 16.7 points per game. The Jags can play a little defense too, but have just 14 sacks on the season. Sacks change games. In primetime key players want to excel and I see the Colts making those plays. Jacksonville’s home crowd is a bit less pathetic in this environment, but not nearly enough to sway my pick: Indianapolis 22, Jacksonville 17 (IND -3/under 43)

 

Dallas (8-5) @ New Orleans (13-0): Wouldn’t it be just like the Cowboys to put all of their problems behind them under the spotlight of a Saturday night special and ruin the perfect season for the Saints? Yeah, it probably would. Then again I was suckered into thinking their ability to run on the Chargers might help them turn around an annual December dump. We have all seen the numbers on ESPN by now. This team gets sad around the holidays. Last week I weighed history in seasons past against them reeling off five wins in a row at home. Their home winning streak went up in smoke and I missed the pick. You can tell I’m not mad about it though.

 

I’m looking at this as a bit of a repeat from last week. Another former offensive coordinator comes back to haunt them. Sean Payton has his offense finely tuned. The Saints lead the NFL in scoring by almost a touchdown per game, and gain 100 more total yards than nearly half the rest of the NFL (14 of 31 teams). Their dominance has certainly been tested since crushing the Eagles (48-22) and Giants (48-27) in the first half of the season, among others. However, when a play needs to be made someone makes it. Last week at Atlanta, an unexpected struggle to say the least, Reggie Bush had 12 touches for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

 

On paper this looks like an offensive shootout. Dallas is third in total yards (391.1) right? They haven’t done much with those yards, ranking #13 in scoring. If you look at how many yards they score per point it takes them roughly 69 yards gained to muster up 4 points. They basically have what I would call a “field goal offense”. For every 71 yards the Saints move, they get 6 points. Call that a “touchdown offense”. Stats can be deceiving of course, and defensively I would take the talent on Dallas no questions asked. However, they just lost their difference maker DeMarcus Ware which can be an emotional downer heading into a game like this coming off two losses. The team must feel like the wheels are coming off. After all, every writer has been asking them about it day after day. The Saints still have their #1 seed to play for and, unlike the Colts, very much want to go undefeated. To me this looks like a replay of their beat down of the Patriots on MNF not too long ago: New Orleans 37, Dallas 27 (NO -7/over 53)

Cleveland (2-11) @ Kansas City (3-10): Oh brother. I just love picking games between two teams who packed it in weeks ago. Last week I thought the Chiefs were good to go at home against another losing team (Buffalo) only to see their “franchise” quarterback throw interceptions the final three times they had the ball with a chance to take the lead. Meanwhile, I expected the Browns to put up a fight against Pittsburgh. Bury them deep in the wild card chase and eliminate them from AFC North contention? I didn’t see that effort coming. Let’s not overreact though. Quinn threw for 90 yards while completing 6/19 passes. They basically won the game on the back of Cribbs who had big plays on a punt return (55 yards) kickoff return (32) and rushing (37) during a 13-6 slugfest. Unfortunately, as we have seen so often in the NFL taking an act like this on the road can be tough.

 

The paying fans at Arrowhead Stadium might be in for a show. If not for the Lions this would be a “showdown” of the league’s two worst defenses in total yards per game allowed. Amazingly, they both give up exactly the same rushing yards (148.1) and almost exactly the same passing yards as well. Kansas City has a slight edge there 238.0 to 237.2. Then again, these scoring offenses are both in the bottom 5, and if not for the Raiders we would be looking at the two worst teams in terms of total yards. The Chiefs have a measurable edge in passing yards, 170.2 to 138.9 though. How in the world does anyone figure out what happens when the movable objects face the resistible forces? Some teams have a bad record and it is tough to figure out why. We know why these teams are losing. No offense. No defense.

 

There is a side story here with still very much in charge head coach Scott Pioli and soon to be out the door head coach Eric Mangini having worked together on the staff of the Jets in the late 1990’s. This should make for some fun pregame conversation. “Hey, you’re about to be out of work. That sucks.” I can’t type Mangini’s response. Honestly, I would rather watch the full length Milkquarius opera from those commercials than sit through this entire game. Give me the cutaways from NFL Red Zone TV and I’ll be just fine thanks. Other than that, I like Cassel to have a nice rebound game. Charles has been running hard since LJ was cut loose and I prefer him over Jennings with the home crowd egging him on. Sometimes games like this, reference the Browns losing a 38-37 thriller to the Lions, are very exciting. I’m not looking for that here. I see two teams not wanting to tackle and a whole lot of running. Looks like mildly entertaining action at best in a game that is appropriately blacked out locally for the first time in forever. It has become my “gulp” pick of the week. It seems like everyone else is going Browns and lately I miss all of my “gulp” picks, but I’m counting on a rebound from Cassel and pride from the Chief defense: Kansas City 24, Cleveland 17 (KC -1.5/over 36.5)

 

Atlanta (6-7) @ NY Jets (7-6): This could have been a great showcase of first round quarterbacks from the past two drafts. Then again, the Meadowlands this time of year is not very kind to those trying to pass a football. There is a chance Mark Sanchez returns for the Jets. He has been splitting reps with Kellen Clemens in practice and if I have to guess (and I do) signs point to the “Sanchise” starting. Given the slim playoff hopes for the Falcons and December weather in Jersey I see no reason for Matt Ryan to be on the field. Even without him, or top running back Michael Turner, and with the offensive line falling apart they still found a way to nearly beat 12-0 New Orleans. In fact, if you look at the game stats it is hard to tell which team is which if you didn’t know. Each team had just one punt and the Falcons had the game’s only turnover. They lost the time of possession big (36:44-23:16) which in a way makes it even more impressive. Now can they repeat this on the road against a hungry, hot opponent?

 

When I look at New York I see a team with a lot of the components Rex Ryan’s old team, the Baltimore Ravens, had in 2008. Everyone expected him to follow the formula that worked all the way up to the AFC title game, especially after drafting a quarterback, but did anyone anticipate it working this well? Other than not scoring as much and not be universally feared on defense I would say this group has a decent chance to squeeze into the playoffs and shock someone. They have the #1 defense in scoring and total yards. Their rushing offense also leads the NFL. The numbers, relative to the 2008 Ravens, are frighteningly similar. While Baltimore had a better run defense by about 20 yards per game, New York has a better rush offense by the same margin this year which makes it a wash.

 

It was awesome to see the Falcons play so inspired at home last week, but this is a different story. Cold weather can ruin dome teams. I have seen it happy too many times to count. In the previous paragraph I pretty much convinced myself the Jets are legit. When you can run the ball and play defense most teams will be in your rear view mirror. Thomas Jones has been very consistent down the stretch. Rookie Shonn Greene needs to quit fumbling, but signing Chauncey Washington should light a fire under him. If Leon Washington was still healthy this team probably wins the AFC East. As it is, Sanchez no doubt used the time off to study his tail off because that’s how he is. He melted down three times this season, throwing 12 of his 17 interceptions in those games. We won’t see that side of him here and due to the weather neither team will throw much anyway: NY Jets 22, Atlanta 14 (NYJ -6/under 40)

 

Miami (7-6) @ Tennessee (6-7): If you want to see a football game, and I mean a real football game this is the one to watch. This is going to be a battle in the trenches and the tougher team will win. Both have weaseled back into the wild card chase after slow starts. The Dolphins were once 0-3 and everyone knows by now the Titans began 0-6. By definition then, it’s a pairing of two rather hot teams. The battle at the line of scrimmage will decide which team is able to run effectively. Thanks to Chris Johnson chasing the single season record Tennessee is #2 in rushing with 165.3 yards per game, one slot ahead of Miami (150.1) who shares the NFL lead in touchdown runs (19). Stopping the run is about desire in many respects. Neither defense stands out in that regard, but each faces a totally different threat. Johnson zips down the field effortlessly. Ricky Williams just gets it done. Which defense is equipped to force the game into the hands of the opposing quarterback?

 

Come to think of it, maybe both teams will look to throw a little bit as well. The Titans have been tortured through the air. Putting it in perspective, extrapolating the stats over a full season it would amount to 4,131 yards and 33 touchdowns. The Dolphins are firmly in the bottom half, but only allow roughly 1 touchdown pass per game and a much lower completion percentage (56.8 to 67.7). Their rookie corners have really held up. Obviously Kerry Collins, who probably starts for an injured Vince Young, has a lot more experience than Chad Henne. However, in the past two weeks Henne has delivered in two close wins completing 50/81 passes for 555 yards. Collins is saddled with the 0-6 starting record this season, but shook off some rust in last week’s rout after Young went out.

 

What I’m really looking at is how the Titans perform on this field. During their resurgence the team is 4-0 at home including wins by 17, 24 and most recently 40 points. All of those were VY starts. I don’t believe the team will lose too much steam if Collins is in action. This isn’t JaMarcus Russell stepping onto the field. Johnson’s pursuit of the history books has given the offensive line an extra bit of motivation. In a game likely to be decided in the trenches that’s big. I could flip a coin and live with the result because both 2008 playoff teams are playing like they want another crack at it. I’m going with home field even though the Dolphins have certainly not been bad on the road of late at 3-2: Tennessee 27, Miami 20 (TEN -3.5/over 43)

 

San Francisco (6-7) @ Philadelphia (9-4): I use the phrase “on paper” and “on the stat sheet” quite a bit even though of course I know there is very little to gain by looking at personnel or previous statistics. Future performance simply can’t be measured by the past, or by the talent on the field. This game is a prime example. The 49ers just turned in a hot performance, preventing Arizona from clinching the NFC West and keeping their faint wild card hopes alive. They would love for it to be “hot” inside their uniforms this week. Warm weather teams (I use that term a bit loosely for a team playing in an often chilly stadium) typically struggle in trips like this late in the season, especially when the start is moved back due to snowy conditions. San Francisco is 1-5 on the road this season, but the losses are by a total of 19 points.

 

The Eagles are home after knocking off two wild card contenders on the road (Falcons, Giants) while putting up 79 points. Their home losses came against the Saints in week 2 and Cowboys on SNF by a 20-16 tally. What I like the most about them is their scoring offense. In 11 of 14 games they have posted 22+ points. You give your defense a chance when you score that much and not surprisingly they are 9-2 in those games. The 49ers have scored 20+ nine times this season and gone 5-4 in those games because most of the time they don’t score much more. Only twice have they scored more than 24 all year (27, 35). I hate to dwell this much on scoring, but it’s kind of a requirement for winning. My point here is that while so much has been made about Philly’s defense going soft on national TV, their offense made it a non-factor.

 

On defense the Eagles still have the overall edge in total yards although the 49ers are better in scoring by roughly two points per game. When you’re breaking down a game involving an Andy Reid offense it isn’t your typical look at rushing and passing. Yes, San Francisco can stop the run. They are going to see very little of it this week. In fact, we are looking at two of the five offenses least committed to the run in the NFL. The 49ers have a true lead rusher in Frank Gore, but their line hasn’t been healthy enough to get him going with regularity. If this game falls on the shoulders of both quarterbacks, child please, who do you think I’m taking? One thing I know the Eagles will do at home is get after the passer. They have 36 sacks on the season, and believe me I see the 49ers have 34 because I’m looking at the stat sheet. Home field and cold weather slide the advantage clearly in one direction. Philly has a better, healthier secondary as well. I honestly don’t think this will be close: Philadelphia 28, San Francisco 17 (PHI -7.5/over 42.5)

 

New England (8-5) @ Buffalo (5-8): If the Patriots had their way, they would have preferred this to be the game the Bills played in Toronto. You see, their only road win in six tries came in another country (London) against hapless Tampa Bay. To go along with a familiar cliché, this is the Super Bowl for Buffalo. They want to ruin a division rival. The truth is, had they finished the job back in week 1 this game would have huge implications. Can you imagine the Pats being 7-6 right now, tied with the Dolphins and Jets, while the Bills were 6-7? It doesn’t take a genius to figure out the standings if Buffalo also won this game. I’m illustrating how thin the margin of error is in the NFL. One team is perceived as a juggernaut and the other a cellar dweller, but one fumble really changed everything.

 

The important thing to remember here is not all of the unrest surrounding the Patriots. Randy Moss is going to play at a high level as long as he is making an impact. Otherwise, Tom Brady will find someone else to make some plays. Perhaps in poor weather their running game finally kicks into gear. I don’t know and no one else does either, but I trust the game planning. Their coaching staff is smart. Buffalo is leaning on emotion and their home crowd. They have talented offensive players, but signing a guy like Incognito to shore up the offensive line shows just how desperate they are. Forget team chemistry, can he line up and go this week? Yes, okay get him in here!

 

I like what Fewell has done as interim coach of the Bills. They are competing. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a scrapper. He has two hard working running backs making the most of the small holes in front of them. Their talent at receiver has yet to be fully utilized, and that’s why (other than their fourth quarter outburst against Miami) this team keeps failing to go over 21 points. This is classic, low scoring AFC East football I think. Down to the wire I’m not going with Fitzpatrick over Brady. I’d only go upset if I believed the Bills could open up a double digit lead. In 9 of their past 11 games they haven’t scored over 17 points. For them to get that kind of lead would mean holding down this Patriot offense to let’s say 7, maybe 13 points? I don’t think so. They usually hit 20 and that’s what separates losers from winners: New England 20, Buffalo 16 (BUF +7.5/under 41)

 

Arizona (8-5) @ Detroit (2-11): On any given week it is hard not to feel sorry for the Lions. On this particular week though, I really pity them. The Cards just stumbled badly in San Francisco while trying to clinch the NFC West. Their offense was turning it over like all of them had the 49er defense on his fantasy football team needing a win to make the playoffs. If they went to a doctor, the prescription would read “go play Detroit”. If a quarterback had 3,537 yards with 29 touchdowns against 8 interceptions at this point in the season, we would be talking Pro Bowl. Only the two guys leading undefeated teams can boast TD numbers like that and just 8 signal callers in the NFL are over 3,500 yards passing. So who am I talking about? Anyone who played against the Lions this season, that’s who. In other words, their average performance in pass defense is the equivalent to the opposing guy playing at a Pro Bowl level. Does Kurt Warner really need that kind of a boost?

 

We know the Cardinals are solid on the road (5-2) and Warner has a long history in domes. He did struggle during his homecoming to St. Louis (15/19, 203 yards, 2 TD) and the team did too (21-13 win). Does that performance make hesitate making what seems like an obvious pick? No, I’m not flinching because the Rams have Steven Jackson, and the Lions just lost their best rusher Kevin Smith. Maurice Morris is a savvy veteran, but he is not a game changer. Guys like Jackson can turn a loss into a win on sheer will. Rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford would be a threat against a bottom 5 pass defense giving up 248.6 yards a game, but he is out. Daunte Culpepper talks a good game. He has yet to match it with his play. Impact wide receiver Calvin Johnson is playing hurt and I owned the Lions believe me he would be wearing a suit until 2010.

 

This is a classic “how much?” game. Everyone expects the Cards to win. Is it a rout though? I’m not seeing enough offensive pop for the Lions to keep it interesting. Arizona has to be motivated to end this game early, and when they do could pile on. Larry Fitzgerald’s availability is an issue although against this defense not as big as it would be against a good team. There are other players capable of picking up the slack. Look for Early Doucet finding his way onto the field if Fitz is out. They are plenty deep: Arizona 31, Detroit 14 (AZ -12/under 47)

 

Chicago (5-8) @ Baltimore (7-6): Late breaking weather has made this a late start due to snow. Get your winter coats on and bring your running game. Oh, the Bears don’t have one? Well, this is going to be a problem. The frigid conditions do favor quarterback Jay Cutler in a way. There will be fewer opportunities for him to add to his bloating interception total which stands at 22. What did you think I was going to say, he was familiar with throwing in the snow from his days in Denver? His abrasive attitude coupled with arriving in the Windy City amidst fanfare befitting a king meant it was going to be feast or famine. Let’s just say the fans are still hungry after hoping for a Super Bowl. Let’s be realistic though, this team has no wide receivers. Their best option is Devin Hester and he is hurt.

 

The flip side of this coin is the Ravens. They are on a roll and could not be more ready to rumble in the snow if it comes to that. Lots of teams could dump Detroit, but their 48-3 domination was the way playoff teams are supposed to take care of bottom feeders. Last week I talked about their three-headed backfield being less productive this season. Those guys played like they read my column and were not happy about it. Rice, McGahee and McClain combined to carry the ball 31 times for an insane 274 yards. Get out your calculator (who am I kidding? I should say iPhone) and that’s an 8.84 yard average.

 

The Bears have a great tradition, especially on defense. They will wish guys like Singletary and Butkus were around to tackle the Ravens this week. In the best conditions they have allowed a healthy 4.4 yards per carry and 128.8 yards a game. With their season over, on the road against a motivated opponent what can we expect? Carnage comes to mind. Baltimore has lost twice at home this season. Both were close and those teams (Indianapolis, Cincinnati) are probably the top two seeds in the AFC. Chicago has won just once on the road, way back in week 3 at Seattle, and averages 13.3 points scored when away from Soldier Field. It’s ugly from start to finish: Baltimore 28, Chicago 7 (BAL -10.5/under 40.5)

 

Houston (6-7) @ St. Louis (1-12): As if the Rams needed a hurdle to overcome, now the H1N1 virus has struck their locker room. Any hopes of securing their first home win of the season probably went out the window. It won’t be because players are out. They don’t have enough talent to miss, other than stud running back Steven Jackson. The killer is missed practice time. Strategy can go a long way towards securing an upset at this time of the season. They already have the element of surprise and home field advantage. Instead it will be a case of flying by the seat of their pants. Oh, and some guy named Null is their starting quarterback. The team is already focused on deciding between “Mr. Suh”, a dominant defensive tackle and a new quarterback of the future if given the #1 pick in the draft. Winning a game like this could take the choice out of their hands.

 

Against division rivals the Rams have been competitive at home. However, earlier in the season Green Bay, Minnesota and Indianapolis blew them out by 19+ points. On the other hand, the Texans know how to beat losing teams, having smacked around Oakland, Buffalo and Seattle by an average of 31-8. Their only loss against a team currently with a losing record is Tennessee and they split two meetings. If an upset is in the works it would require a dramatic offensive turnaround by a team averaging an NFL low 11.2 points per game, less than half what Houston puts up (23.9). I see no reason to expect a surge against a defense trying to keep alive slim playoff hopes. Schaub should have his typically solid passing effort even if his running back might be Arian Foster. It won’t matter too much against a team that has packed it in: Houston 27, St. Louis 16 (STL +14/under 43.5)

 

Oakland (4-9) @ Denver (8-5): Trying to figure out when the Raiders are going to shock the NFL has been a little difficult this season. If they do it this week I think JaMarcus Russell should start packing his bags. He is healthy enough to start, but third stringer Charlie Frye is getting the call instead. Just 2 ½ years separated from being the #1 overall draft pick Russell’s career has reached Vince Young 2008 limbo and no one knows which path he will take or if the Raiders are interested in going along. Frye vs. Orton is a battle of game managers. Orton has gotten healthy and is deadly at home over the course of his career in the win column. Frye is definitely fighting for his football future, but this is not a great place to put on a show.

 

The Broncos have straightened out whatever had their defense in a funk. Yes, they gave up 28 to the Colts last week, but gave up just 312 total yards in the process and picked off Peyton Manning three times. In two previous games they gave up a total of 19 points. Oakland’s offensive line is weakened by the lost of underappreciated left guard Robert Gallery, which stunts their running game. Elvis Dumervil might have his eyes on the single season sack record before this game is over. The Raiders are going to abandon the run because it won’t be successful. Any emotional burst provided by Gradkowski went away when he messed up the MCL on both knees. If I had a lock of the week this would be it. I do think Oakland’s defense will show up and keep things interesting for a while: Denver 26, Oakland 10 (DEN -14/under 37.5)

 

Cincinnati (9-4) @ San Diego (10-3): This is an impossible game to preview. The passing of wide receiver Chris Henry trumps everything about the game itself. We should be talking about Twitter foes Chad Ochocinco and Shawne Merriman getting to it on the field of play. Instead tragedy has struck the Bengals for the second time this season. Make no mistake though, this is totally different. The death of a coach’s wife was devastating given how close she was to the team. This is one of their own, a guy who has been with them during the grueling practices, workouts and in uniform on game day. How does a team respond? Their defense turned in a superlative, season changing effort days after Zim’s wife died suddenly. It stands to reason the offense might be in for a similar boost, but this is a different situation.

 

Unlike last time, they are going across the country against a team that with all due respect couldn’t care less about their plight. I’m just speaking the truth here. The Chargers are on their typical mid to late season run having reeled off 8 wins in a row. Half of those wins came against really struggling franchises (Chiefs twice, Raiders, Browns) but they also took down the Giants, Eagles and Broncos on consecutive weeks. Last week it was a road win over the Cowboys. The Bengals had their hats handed to them at Minnesota 30-10. For the first time all season they looked completely mortal. It marked their eighth offensive effort failing to top 18 points. Believe me, against San Diego on their turf that’s not going to do it.

 

The offenses are separated by only 31.8 yards per game, but the Chargers score 7.5 more points because of their big play ability down the field. It’s going to be Cincinnati going right at a fairly soft run defense giving up a less than stellar 4.3 yards per carry on one side. On the other San Diego seems destined to air it out. Their rushing offense has been pathetic. How does a team with Tomlinson and Sproles (who has the franchise tag remember) average 3.2 yards per carry? It’s easily the lowest average in the NFL. Against the #3 run defense my dog can predict how that will go. I’m most worried about the travel to California, where the team recently lost up north to the Raiders, and being unable to carry the emotion. The Chargers can recover from an early deficit. I don’t think the Bengals can: San Diego 24, Cincinnati 16 (SD -7/under 44)

 

Green Bay (9-4) @ Pittsburgh (6-7): I would say the Steelers never recovered from their bye week, but their unofficial second half of the season began with a 28-10 thumping at Denver. Then the trouble started. Their AFC North title defense has been put on ice by four consecutive losses, the past two of which came against train wreck teams (Oakland, Cleveland). They are left them grasping for crazy wild card scenarios to defend their Lombardi in the playoffs. The only good news is being able to reel in two teams they are chasing (Baltimore, Miami) by beating them the next two weeks. It’s not over yet, but unless the “hell” head coach Mike Tomlin promised is unleashed in a hurry, like say the first quarter of this game, you can use the Terrible Towels to dry your tears Steeler fans.

 

I’m a stickler for statistics usually, but this game comes down to which team can get it done in the fourth quarter. For all of Pittsburgh’s problems most of them boil down to finishing. After beating Tennessee in OT to kick off the NFL season, it is hard to believe these guys are 0-7 in games decided by a natural touchdown (7 points). Their closest win was 28-20 over Detroit, but in that one the Lions scored the game’s final points to make a 28-13 game closer. They haven’t come back and beaten anyone, sans a first half deficit against Minnesota, since week 1! That is shocking. Here is my dilemma. Aaron Rodgers has been haunted by an inability to finish and win close games. Plus, the Packers have been in only five close games all season, going 3-2 in games decided by a touchdown or less. Momentum is an avalanche in favor of the visitors. Who would have figured this when Green Bay was 4-4 and Pittsburgh 6-2 five games ago?

 

I would love to stick my neck out and go with the Steelers rising up. They have had a couple extra days to lick their wounds and decide not to pack this season in. The truth is, I don’t think they have the personnel to win this fight. Aaron Smith has been a tremendous loss for their defense, and gotten a lot less pub than Troy Polamalu being out with the Madden Curse which by the way finally got to co-cover boy Larry Fitzgerald. Those two players have impacted both sides of the pass defense. Rodgers can pass the ball and has enough weapons to really make life difficult even with Dick LeBeau scheming to exploit his weak offensive line. Ryan Grant appears ready to finally do some running as well, just in time for the playoff push. I might kick myself, but the determining factor is really the Packer defense coached by a group of ex-Steelers starting with their old coordinator Dom Capers. This game means a lot to both sides. I don’t expect a lot of scoring. I do expect a lot of sacks on both sides and not much success running the football. Get your aspirin ready: Green Bay 17, Pittsburgh 15 (GB +2/under 41)

 

Tampa Bay (1-12) @ Seattle (5-8): The teams are under contract to play this game. Otherwise they might just call it off. I know Matt Hasselbeck still cares. I wouldn’t want to play against him in anything, not even chess. The guy wants to win. His team is struggling and his career is just about over. This will be one of his final shots to turn in a performance indicative of the great player he has been. He’s not going to the Hall of Fame, but when healthy is one of the game’s best competitors. On the other side rookie Josh Freeman is in for another poor outing. This crowd doesn’t care much what the team’s record is. They will be going crazy. He is going to get rattled and pour on more interceptions. He has 8 in the past two weeks, losses that have produced just 3 field goals total. I do think the kid has a shot to develop, just not this week.

 

The defense has really fallen flat in Tampa Bay as well. It took them a couple more months to fire their coordinator after cutting the OC loose prior to the season, and the change has helped a little. In the past three weeks they have given up a reasonable 20.7 points per game. I say reasonable because the offense hasn’t provided much help. Long road trips like this rarely end well even for good teams. This is about as far away from home as the Bucs get. Well, other than their visit to London resulting in a 35-7 loss to New England. Seattle’s defense has been a lot better at home this season and they will hold the running game in check. Meanwhile, Justin Forsett should continue his late surge and cement his spot as a legit fantasy sleeper in 2010, especially in leagues rewarding points for receptions. That’s about all I’ve got for this one: Seattle 31, Tampa Bay 9 (SEA -6/over 39)

 

Minnesota (11-2) @ Carolina (5-8): There has been some discussion about why this game was flexed to SNF by NBC instead of other games, like say Chargers-Bengals. Well, the networks (CBS, FOX) can protect one game during the flex period. Obviously they go with the ratings game and pick their best option. Fans should be griping about missing Dolphins-Titans. We don’t want to see Chris Johnson chase history? Well, like it or not this is what we are stuck with. It’s all Favre all the time baby! He is due for a dud. If you’re a Viking fan it is a bit like holding a wet paper bag walking down the street. You never really know when the bottom is going to fall out. Favre is one hit from the bench, and one 10-point deficit from regressing to his gunslinger (read: turnover prone) ways. The Panthers know all about that, but at least see the end of the Delhomme era. He is out this week and probably done with the team, if not the NFL. Moore gives them a better chance to retain the football, but given their weak set of receiving options doesn’t boost the offense much.

 

If you’re looking for an upset, it starts with the Panthers imposing their will by running the football. They are going right at the team strength of the Vikings who give up 86.9 yards rushing per game, and being stuck with a backup left tackle when a guy like Jared Allen is coming after your quarterback is not good news either. There is little reason to like Carolina’s chances on offense. They have not topped 17 points in their past four games, and have scored 21+ just three times all season. Minnesota has failed to score 27 just twice. They lost both games. Even if rookie Percy Harvin is struggling with migraine headaches, this offense has more talent. They can run straight over this defense with Adrian Peterson. It might not be the prettiest win of the season because home teams are rarely pushovers on national television, but I’m not picking a team that can’t score to beat one that scores in bunches. That’s crazy: Minnesota 28, Carolina 16 (MIN -8.5/over 43)

 

NY Giants (7-6) @ Washington (4-9): When these teams tussled on opening weekend it was looking like New York was on their way to living up to preseason hype. They were leading 17-0 as the ‘Skins lined up for a field goal late in the first half. Hunter Smith ran in for a touchdown and suddenly it was a game again. A converted field goal got them closer, only to have the Giants pots two fourth quarter boots of their own to widen the gap. By the time Campbell hit Cooley with 1:30 to play it only impacted the final margin of 23-17. Regardless of the disparity in talent these games are always close. It will be a rivalry in 2123 when games are played on the moon. Most of the drama has been off the field for Washington, hiring a new general manager amidst speculation the guy announcing the game (Jon Gruden) will be the one coaching them in 2010. After all, new GM Bruce Allen has worked with “Chucky” twice already, in Oakland and Tampa Bay.

 

For the Giants their goal is simple. Win games and let the chips fall. Their defense couldn’t stop the Eagles, but offensively it is tough not to like outputs of 31 and 38 points the past two weeks. Eli Manning is trying to will this team into the playoffs, but their defense has to show up sooner or later. In all four games since their bye in week 10 they have given up 24+ points and eight times overall. That’s way too much for a group with this much talent, injuries or not. They could be in for a repeat of last week when McNabb shredded them apart, but Campbell will be going it on his own. His backfield is down to Gainther, Mason and Cartwright. Those guys can look viable against a defense like Oakland with nothing at stake in an afternoon game. This is primetime and New York is still in it. I see them being too one-dimensional to really score with the Giants. I love the Redskin defense though. They have been a stout unit all season. When teams put up a lot of points on them it is usually because the offense is flat. If I thought I had an angle on this game I would take it and run. My instinct says the G-Men are not ready to give up on this season just yet, but I don’t have the stomach to go out on that limb with them. They seem worn down and tired: Washington 20, NY Giants 19 (WAS +3/under 44)