Another regular season is coming to an end and like a few teams in the NFL I faded down the stretch. It seemed like I could never catch a break on any of my 50/50 picks over the final month. Last week I went 10-6 straight up, leaving my season mark at a still very respectable 162-78. I did finally show up against the spread at 9-6-1 giving me a faint chance to break even for the season (120-128-2). However, I put myself in a bad spot against the over/under by going 7-9 meaning it will be just as tough for me to get even there (114-121-5). Maybe the most unpredictable week in the season, other than week 1, will work in my favor.

Indianapolis (14-1) @ Buffalo (5-10): I was convinced the Colts were covertly interested in going undefeated even as they insisted it was not an issue. Apparently the only guy who cared was Peyton Manning. He looked like someone had just stolen his ice cream and melted his collection of action figures after being pulled for rookie Curtis Painter. It is hard to blame a guy being thrust into his first NFL action, but I'm also not totally blaming rookie head coach Jim Caldwell either. It was the special teams letting them down really. If not for missing an extra point and allowing a kickoff return for a touchdown Indy is probably ahead 17-3 when the switch is made instead of 15-10. A little more common sense play calling (run dummies, your defense is playing great) later and they might still be undefeated. Instead, now they get what they want which is the opportunity to rest everyone without fear of backlash in inclement weather.

Peyton Manning is probably going to play the first drive just to extend his consecutive start streak. Beyond that forget it and the same goes for anyone who has even a scratch. Meanwhile the Bills have been revitalized under Perry Fewell and despite last week's blowout loss at Atlanta will be eager to close out the season on a high note. Brian Brohm's first NFL start at quarterback was not a memorable one and while there remains a chance Ryan Fitzpatrick returns to the lineup this week it doesn't matter much. This game is going to be about getting it over with on both sides.

Buffalo's focus is going to be on running the football against a defense not very interested in putting their rear ends on the line to stop them. If the Colts pull this out it will be because they go completely against character by running themselves against a horrible run defense. Of course, considering the set up it seems likely to be their strategy. Executing is another story because Painter is no threat whatsoever based on his nightmare debut last week at home. He might be prepared for the hostile crowd though after getting booed by his own fans. I'm taking the Bills and counting on Terrell Owens to end his unsuccessful first (and probably last) season with a bang: Buffalo 20, Indianapolis 14 (IND +10/over 32.5)

New Orleans (13-2) @ Carolina (7-8): Lost in the shuffle of the Saints collapsing is the fact that they are still perfect on the road. It seems likely that streak will end now as well. If momentum is truly important suffice it to say they are in serious trouble when the playoffs start. Losing at home against a Tampa Bay team competing for a high draft pick and playing under a head coach who might be fired is pretty alarming. They pretty much mailed it in and appear ready to do the same here. Drew Brees will not play and I can't say I blame Sean Payton for not exposing him to a surging Panthers team and Julius Peppers playing for a payday. Carolina pummeled Minnesota 26-7 two weeks ago and just put the Giants out of the playoffs with a 41-9 shellacking. Right now they are wishing this was the NHL and a win here earned them a playoff spot.

As well as Carolina has played this is no lock. They just lost star receiver Steve Smith and other than veteran Muhsin Muhammad (46 receptions, 496 yards) there is really no production to speak of so the pressure is on new starter Matt Moore (who is nursing sore ribs) to stay hot against a souring pass defense playing without resting Darren Sharper. There is also the matter of Jonathan Stewart carrying the load again in the backfield with DeAngelo Williams out. He has been a star the past two weeks with 53 carries for 315 yards and two touchdowns. Their offense is definitely going to be different without their deep threat and with Stewart facing more defensive attention. However, old man Mark Brunell is starting for the Saints. Does anyone think he has a chance to do anything off basically three years of rest? I'm not seeing them too interested in winning this game and similar to the Colts that's the determining factor: Carolina 23, New Orleans 13 (CAR -7/under 41.5)

Jacksonville (7-8) @ Cleveland (4-11): Believe it or not the Jaguars are still technically alive for a wild card despite throwing away control of their own destiny with three consecutive losses. The Browns have gone from possibly picking first in the NFL draft to possibly not even sniffing the top five if they win their fourth straight here. For a franchise trying to rebuild under the guidance of new president Mike Holmgren this saves them from overpaying high first round bust, but could impact their situation at quarterback where Brady Quinn is hurt (again) and Derek Anderson is attempting to save his NFL career. The biggest boost during this winning streak, however, has come from running back Jerome Harrison. It has been fun watching him run for 434 yards and wreak havoc on FFL playoff games, but let me be the first voice of reason regarding his future. Let's keep in mind that he was tearing up two bad run defenses (Kansas City, Oakland) and two losing teams at the tail end of the season. Meanwhile he was obviously fresh having barely played this year. I'm all for a success story. I just don't want anyone losing their mind thinking he will rush for 1,500 yards in 2010.

The glimmer of hope might be small, but it should keep the visiting Jaguars focused. They lost last season's meeting with the Browns on their home field in a game Derek Anderson also started. However, he was basically out as the starter the following week and has not produced much passing the football since. If Cleveland wants to close with another win it is going to be on the legs of Harrison. Jacksonville has a pretty good run defense and Cleveland does not. I'm looking for Jones-Drew to have himself a solid finale. In fact he might even be inspired to impress because Harrison is also a "small" back. Different guys get motivated by different things, especially after a long season. He will go past 300 carries the fifth time he is given the football and has done everything asked of him after taking over the feature role himself when Fred Taylor left.

Meanwhile David Garrard has been a pretty big disappointment again. His touchdown total is 28. Not for this season alone, since the start of 2008 and he has not missed a game. He has taken 81 sacks over those 31 games as well. At least he is a better than 50/50 bet to pass for 200 yards which is a lot more than Derek Anderson can say. Both pass defenses are in the bottom 6, and with the Browns inability to stop the run I'm looking for the visitors to put up some points. It is a tough call. I would rather go with Garrard and MJD ultimately because even if this team has struggled on the road most of the season they can beat bad teams. The Browns still qualify: Jacksonville 25, Cleveland 22 (JAX +1.5/over 36)

Chicago (6-9) @ Detroit (2-13): Games like this are very similar to predicting results in college bowl games. The team more interested in winning usually does. The Lions have probably already cost themselves a chance to draft the an impact defensive tackle (Nebraska's Suh) although it is very early in the process to assume he is both worth the top pick and more valuable than any other player. The Bears have little interest in their draft position having traded picks for quarterback Jay Cutler. Their motivation here is for head coach Lovie Smith who is definitely on the chopping block after a third season in a row missing the playoffs since their Super Bowl loss. At least the team hasn't quit on him and it was evident in their resolve during last week's OT win against Minnesota. Blowing a 23-6 lead isn't what I'm focused on. The more important sign was them scoring again and ultimately pulling it out after Favre's dramatic touchdown forced an extra frame.

It looks like Daunte Culpepper will start at quarterback which means the turnovers should be flowing on both sides. These offenses are going to struggle. Chicago loses deep threat Johnny Knox and Devin Hester's return is iffy. Their special teams take a hit as well with Knox out because Manning is also sidelined. It's probably a good thing there won't be too many kickoff returns because the Lions don't figure to score much. They got a big game out of Maurice Morris two weeks ago while putting a scare in Arizona, but over half of his 126 yards came on one run and last week San Francisco bottled him up. At least Calvin Johnson is still showing up. Then again, he lost two fumbles last week. No result would really surprise me. Chicago was fired up playing under the MNF lights. Going on the road against a bad team takes away a little of their spunk. Detroit has already won twice at home and faces a team with just one road victory. The Bears are also 0-2 in domes this season. I'm taking them anyway because Cutler can destroy this secondary, especially if rookie safety Delmas is out. Since neither run defense is very good that's the difference: Chicago 31, Detroit 17 (CHI -3/over 44)

New England (10-5) @ Houston (8-7): There are numerous playoff ramifications invoving this game, but none of them are very exciting. The Patriots are playing for the #3 seed, which they clinch with a win. The Texans are hoping to stay alive in the wild card chase. In reality this is more about head games from the guy wearing a hoodie. If I know Belichick, and no one really can completely, I believe he is interested in keeping his players healthy for multiple reasons even if it costs them a victory. Getting a higher seed is not necessarily an advantage, for one thing. Would he rather face the Ravens, a team that took last year's playoffs by the throat, or the Jets and their inconsistent rookie quarterback? I'm assuming of course both teams win their way in, which brings us to the next issue. Might losing this game force the Bengals to at least ponder playing a few more of their starters in the SNF finale? It's food for thought and could pave the way for the rival Jets getting knocked out of the playoffs. More importantly it plays with their minds.

On the field in this one I can count on the Texans scoring some points. The Pats are awful on the road this season and their defense is a big reason why. While winning their past five home games they have given up a total of 48. High powered Indianapolis and New Orleans took them apart for 73 points. I'm not comparing Houston's attack to those teams completely, but with Andre Johnson catching passes from Matt Schaub while possibly facing some backups it might be a similar result. Most imporantly it appears likely Wilfork and Warren will be rested up front. If that happens it sets up Schaub to sit back in the pocket comfortably. It also opens up the running game. Meanwhile, is there any chance Brady risks his knee against a defense with Pollard in the lineup? I seriously doubt it. The fact is, playoff seeding simply is not very important and certainly not worth putting key players on the line. Is Randy Moss fired up to knock Houston out of a slim shot at a wild card? On the other hand the Texans are very excited about finishing with the first winning record in team history. I would pick a bigger rout, but I think some regulars play the first half for the Pats: Houston 28, New England 20 (HOU -7/over 46)

Pittsburgh (8-7) @ Miami (7-8): First of all it is quite petty for any player on the Steelers to call out teams for resting starters, thus paving the way for the defending champions to miss the playoffs. If they wanted to get in, how about beating Cleveland, Kansas City OR Oakland for crying out loud? Think before you speak guys, seriously. As a result of those shameful losses they are probably out of it even after inspired wins over playoff bound Green Bay and probable wild card (if they can handle the Raiders) Baltimore. The Dolphins are still alive as well although their path requires a win and four other teams losing. If they wanted to make noise last week against Houston was the time. They waited until after digging a 27-0 hole to start playing though and fell a touchdown short.

Injuries are always a factor this late in the season and this game is no exception. The critical one is Ricky Williams. He helped keep the Dolphins in the hunt after Wildcat operator Ronnie Brown was put on IR. Henne had an outstanding December passing the football with 322+ yards in three of four games, but he also had 6 interceptions. Now he's up against a solid run defense capable of really coming after him when the play calling gets too pass heavy. Troy Polamalu might even be back in the lineup to wreak havoc on the back end. Either way, the Steelers will play on defense early in this game the way the Texans played on offense last week. On the other side Roethlisberger has passed for 4,108 yards in 14 games for an average of 293. Hines Ward might even provide a boost by getting in the lineup. This one should be another thriller. I went against Pittsburgh two weeks ago because of their failures in close games. Two wins later I'm picking them for the opposite reason. I don't like the home team's chances if Ricky is not himself either: Pittsburgh 24, Miami 20 (PIT -3/under 45.5)

NY Giants (8-7) @ Minnesota (11-4): It is no surprise the way the Vikings are finishing up this season, especially anyone who watched the Jets play in 2008 with Favre at quarterback. Eventually the shine wears off and when losses pile up fingers start getting pointed. As a result of their OT loss at Chicago, despite Favre's heroics, they might be forced to play a first round game and hit the road in the divisional round. Because the result they need involves a late game (Dallas beating Philadelphia) there is no reason to believe the Vikings will not go full throttle to the end. The Giants haven't been at full throttle for a while. Once 5-0 and Super Bowl bound on paper their wild card chances were burned up in their Giants Stadium finale last week. Carolina simply ran them over 41-9. Minnesota hopes to do the same this week and would love to see slumping Adrian Peterson go off.

The flip side is Minnesota's suspect run defense which is missing Pat Williams. It has hurt their defense overall to be sure, but at least this week they will only be facing a banged up Bradshaw because Jacobs is out. Most of New York's hopes fall on Eli Manning who is closing out a career best season. He needs just 120 yards to reach 4,000 for the first time and is 3 touchdowns from 30. Those are milestones big brother Peyton has reached 10 (yards) and 5 (touchdowns) times so you know he would love to get there. Minnesota has allowed a ridiculous 26 touchdown passes against 10 interceptions this season and Madieu Williams is playing hurt on the corner. This one could get exciting because New York's ratio is 27-13 and their secondary is depleted with injuries. More importantly, when a guy like Osi Umenyiora openly questions his future with the team as he did after last week's loss it does not bode well for a strong defensive effort on the road. Beating Minnesota means hassling Favre and containing Peterson. I don't see them doing either and as a result the Vikings regain some confidence into the playoffs: Minnesota 34, NY Giants 24 (MIN -7.5/over 48)

San Francisco (7-8) @ St. Louis (1-14): I know I spend a lot of time late in the season talking about draft position, but in this case it really matters. The Rams can clinch the #1 pick overall by losing this game and at present it means having their choice of quarterback or just about everyone's top choice "Mr. Suh" the defensive tackle from Nebraska. In a way the 49ers would actually help their rival by showing up and playing well. They sure did in the first meeting, a 35-0 rout at Candlestick Park. They didn't even have Frank Gore in the lineup for that one. He has been running well late in the season and just went over 1,000 yards. Maybe it's not a huge number these days, but he is #12 in the NFL at the moment so it does mean something, especially having missed two games.

There is added motivation for the 49ers who are trying to end an ugly Bay Area drought. Since the Raiders lost Super Bowl XXXVII following the 2002 season neither NorCal team has had a non-losing season. Teams building for the future as they are typically want to win games like this. Alex Smith is trying to retain Mike Singletary's vote of confidence and should be good for another 250 yards passing. He has yet to win on the road this season (the team is 1-6 and Hill started the opener at Arizona) but guess where his last road win came? If you said here go get yourself a cookie, you deserve it. It was September 16, 2008 and the 49ers won 17-16. Several of this season's road losses were close though and with Gore running and the passing game in motion I'm liking their chances. Defensively their focus is firmly on stopping Steven Jackson who is worn out after a frustrating season as the team's biggest star during a woeful campaign. They have contained the run all season and whether it is Null or Boller at quarterback should create turnovers when the Rams start passing. St. Louis does usually keep it close at home, but coming off playing three of four on the road I wonder how much they have left: San Francisco 26, St. Louis 19 (STL +8.5/over 40)

Atlanta (8-7) @ Tampa Bay (3-12): The NFC South has been predictably unpredictable this season as usual. Even in meaningless games it is hard to figure these teams out. Carolina is playing like they won the division. New Orleans is playing like they are in last place. Tampa Bay has won two straight after stunning the Saints in their stadium last week. Atlanta has also won their past pair of games even if their hopes of a return to the playoffs were dashed. In other words, the only team going to the playoffs is the only team playing poorly this month. Go figure.

This one is hard to figure. Yes the Bucs are hot, but both of their wins came on the road and fatigue is a factor after playing four of their last five away from home. For the last six weeks the Falcons have played all of their games in the Georgia Dome or the Meadowlands, where they lost to the Giants and stunned the Jets with a late touchdown. Make no mistake this one means a lot to them because it will mark the first time in franchise history they finish with consecutive winning seasons. The Bucs are jockeying for draft position and perhaps playing for head coach Raheem Morris.

Quarterback play favors the Falcons, who might have earned a wild card if not for Matt Ryan missing two starts. Rookie Josh Freeman has been a respectable 3-5 as a starter, but also had 11 interceptions in December. The pass defense numbers are frighteningly similar with the only difference being yardage where the Falcons are roughly 40 yards per game inferior. Both teams are also struggling to run the ball consistently, but the Bucs have been more generous, in part because opponents often pile up on them late in games nursing leads. This should be close, as the first meeting was, but unlike that one Matt Ryan is going to finish which means the Falcons are winners again: Atlanta 21, Tampa Bay 17 (ATL -1.5/under 42)

Philadelphia (11-4) @ Dallas (10-5): I felt this was the clear choice for SNF because it has the significance of a division title at stake, but unlike the Jets-Bengals game is not likely to have either team resting starters. I do understand the reasons it was chosen including a rare primetime appearance by division champion Cincinnati and the closing of Giants Stadium. Mix in the ratings of the New York market and it's a done deal. It doesn't mean this game is any less important. In fact, if Minnesota loses to the Giants then Dallas could secure a bye week (#2 seed) with a win and shove Philly down to the second wild card position (#6 seed) depending on the Packers-Cardinals outcome. It's easier for the Eagles. They win and the second seed is theirs.

When these teams get together it is always interesting and the 100th meeting was no exception. It was also played on SNF, another reason not to flex this one into primetime, and Dallas slugged out a 20-16 victory. Miles Austin was in the midst of a very slow November, but his only catch was a touchdown covering 49 yards to win the game. McNabb was erratic passing (53%) and threw a pair of interceptions. Young stud receivers Jackson and Maclin combined for just 73 yards on 5 receptions. Conversely Romo passed for 307 yards which is what we have come to expect from him prior to December.

Their late season woes have been tempered by a stunning win at New Orleans and last week's shutout at Washington. Both were in primetime. However, you might notice both were on the road. Under Romo the Cowboys are a stunning 1-6 at home (including a playoff loss) from December 1 on. Two of those losses came to the Eagles, and of course last year with the playoffs on the line Philadelphia destroyed them 44-6 at "The Linc". Emotion has a lot to do with the outcome here. Is Dallas ready for a playoff atmosphere? Beating the Saints on a Saturday night is one thing, and winning a division title is another. Philly is very familiar with these situations having been to the NFC title game six times under McNabb.

I'm expecting a lot more offense this time around. Dallas comes in a bit healthier considering center Jamaal Jackson just went on IR for Philadelphia. He was effective during last week's 30-27 win over Denver, but thriving in hostile territory in a game for a division title is a different deal. I look for Wade to dial up some interesting pressure up the middle and considering the Eagles rarely run the ball for power up the middle anyway it makes their offense a little more predictable. In a close game I look for any edge and this could be it. Ware has revitalized this Cowboy defense and their running game should carry the day: Dallas 31, Philadelphia 24 (DAL -2.5/over 47)

Green Bay (10-5) @ Arizona (10-5): If Minnesota and Dallas win their games, it looks like this will be a rematch regardless of the outcome here. The only difference is that by winning Green Bay is the #5 seed knocking Arizona down to #4. Otherwise it will be a #3 vs. #6 game. Of course, the Cards are holding out hope for a bye week and the #2, hoping Philadelphia and Minnesota lose coupled with them winning here. It's complicated, but if the Vikings win earlier in the day rest assured Whisenhunt is going to prepare his team accordingly. If that means going with Leinart at quarterback and resting his star receivers he will do it in a heartbeat. Similar to New England's situation, playing for the #3 vs. #4 seed is not very significant, and neither is the #5 vs. the #6 for the Packers.

McCarthy says his game plan will not change out of concern for playing a rematch six days later on this very field. I totally believe him and expect the team to empty out their playbook to be sure Whisenhunt knows exactly what to expect in the playoffs. I'm kidding of course. He must be joking. Neither team wants to extend too much effort here, and not just in terms of game plan but also the risk of injury. This is a bit of a parlay pick for me because if the Giants win all bets are pretty much off. Arizona becomes a team trying to earn a week off, even if it only means playing on field where they are just 4-3 this season.

It's impossible to ignore the difference between Leinart and Warner at quarterback. If it's Leinart we will see a rematch of an epic Pac-10 battle from 2004. His USC Trojans outlasted Rodgers' Cal Bears 23-17, but Rodgers had an excellent game passing (29/34 for 267 yards) and was later drafted in the first round. Leinart of course earned a lot more fanfare with a BCS championship and Heisman. He was a first rounder a year later, but as pros their paths have been much different. Rodgers is looking like an annual Pro Bowl contender while Leinart needs to start putting in work just to keep his career afloat.

The reason quarterback play is so important is because the Packers have two Pro Bowl players in their secondary and a defense capable of stifling the run. The Cardinals allow a high average against the run (4.6) and over 28 more yards per game through the air. Green Bay has given up more touchdown passes (28-21) but also has more picks (27-21) and both teams allow a low completion percentage. Even if Warner was in there with his studs, as he will be in a playoff rematch, I'm not sure this pick would be any different. I guess we'll find out in a few days. For now I like the Packers to in a way make McCarthy a truth teller by playing hard: Green Bay 27, Arizona 20 (GB +3/over 44)

Kansas City (3-12) @ Denver (8-7): It seems as if Josh McDaniels is losing and regaining his grip on this team constantly. This week he has sent off leading receiver Brandon Marshall and top tight end Tony Scheffler. They take 132 receptions for 1,536 yards and 10 touchdowns with them. Most of that is from Marshall, who might not have been able to play due to injury anyway. With Eddie Royal already out I hope Brandon Stokley keeps his hands to himself or no one will be left to catch any passes. Even before this incident we had a Brandon Lloyd sighting last week. He had 4 receptions and I'm pretty sure the team was trying to set an NFL record for most receivers named Brandon catching a pass in the same game. Mission accomplished.

Anyway, despite the distraction Denver can still find a way into the playoffs if results go their way elsewhere. At 6-0 it seemed like a certainty, but now their easiest path is Cincinnati and Miami joining them in the win column. However, because of the starting times for games impacting their fate the Broncos will not be eliminated by kickoff. All of this considered their focus has to be on the Chiefs who responded to getting hammered by Denver 44-13 on their home field by losing three close games in a row. I guess this can be considered progress, especially throwing a scare into playoff bound Cincinnati last week.

I'm not expecting anything fancy here. Cleveland's defense made little known Jerome Harrison look like a combination of James Brown and Barry Sanders. Knowshon Moreno has hit the rookie wall recently, but should snap out of it against these guys. Orton is usually solid in home games even if his stable of receivers is thin. Cassel was so shaky in the first meeting he was pulled and his poor play has put the team in a difficult position considering his big contract. I'm looking for the Broncos to set the tempo on defense and then let their running game salt it away. It won't be a rout like the first meeting though: Denver 27, Kansas City 14 (DEN -10/over 38)

Baltimore (8-7) @ Oakland (5-10): The Raiders have been at their best when playing the stiffest competition. A schedule loaded with contenders has seen them go 4-7 against teams currently with a winning record and 3-1 since November 22. Two of those have been over AFC North foes. Additionally, last year in this situation they knocked Tampa Bay out of the playoffs in their stadium. Already they have helped put Denver and Pittsburgh in precarious situations needing to win and get help during this late season surge. There is also the matter of a team travelling cross country to play which is never an easy task.

None of this really comes into play if the Raiders are unable to play run defense. The Ravens have really gotten back to running the ball effectively of late. Ray Rice just broke Pittsburgh's streak of not allowing a rusher over 100 yards at 33 last week in their 23-20 loss. Le'Ron McClain was named to the Pro Bowl at fullback. Injuries have become a big concern, notably on their back seven defensively. Charlie Frye threw for 333 yards last week, but had 3 interceptions and failed to lead any touchdown drives in their 23-9 loss at Cleveland.

If Baltimore expects Oakland to roll over this could be another shocker. The Raiders are capable of moving the football if their running game busts a few decent plays, and their passing game is better than most people think with Murphy and Schilens at receiver. I still like the Ravens to win their way in by wearing them down with their own ground attack and not making the crucial mistakes and penalties which always haunt the Silver and Black: Baltimore 22, Oakland 14 (OAK +11/under 38)

Washington (4-11) @ San Diego (12-3): There are a lot of playoff scenarios in the AFC. None of them involve the Chargers who are locked into the #2 seed. For them this game is about resting critical players in the second half and keeping nicked up guys out of action. There are a lot worse backup quarterbacks than Billy Volek. He came off the bench cold and ran for the winning touchdown at Indianapolis in the 2007 playoffs. As tough as it is to hold a starting quarterback job in the NFL is it can be similarly tough to retain a spot at #2. He is experienced and capable. The offense will be limited though if Vincent Jackson is not around to terrorize the secondary.

Until two weeks ago I was afraid of what the Redskins can do defensively and gave them a chance against just about any team because of it. The Giants smashed them and a week later their offense was shut out by the Cowboys. However, that has been their problem all season. A first ever 0-6 record against a tough NFC East is why they are struggling. This team is 4-5 against everyone else and overall has suffered 7 losses by a single score (8 points) or less. In other words if they are interested in showing up against a team playing like Indy was last week this could get upside down in a hurry. Washington has the front line to really make life difficult on San Diego's offensive line. LT wants to go big, but how about the rest of the team?

On the other side Jason Campbell is playing for his future and there is always a chance Washington decides to put up a fight for head coach Jim Zorn is probably his final game as head coach. This is a hunch and considering I have blown my shot at beating all of the experts across multiple sites (Yahoo!, ESPN, TSN) I'm going out on a limb here. Ironically it was picking against the Chargers last week that was the final straw. I'm looking at Campbell limiting his mistakes and the visitors playing it close enough early to forge ahead late, similar to an exhibition game, when the starters exit: Washington 21, San Diego 17 (WAS +3.5/under 39)

Tennessee (7-8) @ Seattle (5-10): The Titans fell short in their quest to become the first team to go from 0-6 to the playoffs, but can still salvage a .500 record and get running back Chris Johnson into the record books. He is a virtual lock to establish a new single season mark for total yards, needing just 75 to eclipse Marshall Faulk's effort from 1999. He can join a short list of rushers over 2,000 yards with 128 and of course set the all-time record with 233. It definitely provides the offense motivation, but at the same time focuses the defense on stopping him knowing full well he is going to get a bunch of touches. Not that the Seahawks can do anything about it. They have lost their past three games by a combined 106-24 and looked bad doing it.

Matt Hasselbeck has been one of the reasons this team has fallen apart. He has become a turnover machine and the team is likely to pursue his replacement in the draft. The receivers have been erratic as well and perhaps the only bright spot on offense has been running back Justin Forsett. Their ineptitude has placed undue pressure on the defense and led to the onslaught of points. Since blowing out Jacksonville on October 11 the only thing this team has done is beat division foes St. Louis and San Francisco and hapless Detroit. Every other opponent (seven) has beaten them by double digits. The Titans want to win and in season finales that goes a long way: Tennessee 27, Seattle 17 (TEN -6/under 45)

Cincinnati (10-5) @ NY Jets (8-7): Almost all of the chatter is about New York getting a huge break by playing another team resting starters and backing into the playoffs. It's definitely true, but they still have to win the game. I remember Buffalo getting upset 29-24 by Pittsburgh at home in a similar situation back in 2004. The AP article referred to Willie Parker and James Harrison as "scrubs" because at the time they were backups. I am not making this up. It will be interesting to see if anyone on the Bengals can step out of the shadows to help stun the Jets.

There is no reason to believe Carson Palmer will be on the field for any length of time considering he was injured in a playoff loss against the Steelers which started this team's return to mediocrity. Their defense is also banged up and expected to rest players, having already lost linebacker Rey Maualuga and end Antwan Odom for the season. The Jets are remarkably healthy for this point in the season having been stung earlier in the year by the loss of dynamic running back Leon Washington and run stuffing tackle Kris Jenkins.

This one boils down to rookie Mark Sanchez protecting the football and New York's running game and defense controlling the action. If this sounds familiar it is the exact formula head coach Rex Ryan's last team (Baltimore) used to earn a wild card last year when he was defensive coordinator. I'm not suggesting this team makes a run to the AFC Championship Game with opponents like the Colts and Chargers looming in the field. There is also the motivation of playing the final regular season game at the Meadowlands, and final football game period unless the aforementioned Ravens repeat their #6 seed success and the Jets meet them for all the AFC marbles here in a month. A potential rematch in a week makes it unlikely the Bengals expose themselves to injury or unleash too much of their offensive game plan: NY Jets 24, Cincinnati 13 (NYJ -9.5/over 33.5)