I surprised myself quite a bit by tearing up the final week of the regular season. It is usually a time for me to grimace as teams rest starters and games end with unusual results. With all of the strange factors at work it was not a stretch for me to have had a perfect mark straight up. No one expected Kansas City to beat Denver, overturning a rout loss on their home field against a team fighting for (at the time) a wild card. In Yahoo pick’em leagues 93% took the Broncos and the other 7% live in Missouri apparently. My lone regret was Jacksonville making good on the road at Cleveland. I expected more pride there, but they waited until it was too late.

In the meantime I almost nailed the Washington over San Diego stunner. Although the Chargers were sure to rest starters, no one in the free world had them losing the game to the cross country travelling ‘Skins. There they were though trailing 20-16 in the waning minutes. I had picked the Chargers to fall by nearly the exact score (21-17) and was crestfallen when Volek directed a game winning drive. Even more so when Campbell made no effort to march for a tying field goal. The final result was 13-3 straight up which resulted in a 175-81 season finish. It was a new personal record and other than Vinnie Iyer (Sporting News) I know of no other individual writers with a better record. I also woke up against Vegas, finishing 10-5-1 against the spread (130-133-3 overall) and 11-5 on the over/under (125-126-5). Stunningly I actually have a reasonable chance to break even if the playoffs go well.

NY Jets (9-7) @ Cincinnati (10-6): Rematch weekend starts with a game no one wants to see an instant replay of. Fortunately it will not resemble the debacle NBC foolishly flexed into their SNF finale. While the Bengals played their starters (other than running back Cedric Benson) none of those guys went to the wall trying to earn a #3 seed. The truth of the matter is that the Jets and Ravens are very similar teams, but playoff experience made the latter more dangerous. Unfortunately for long suffering fans of the team formerly known as the “Bungles” this is not a great scenario for their return to the playoffs.

In the exhibition at the Meadowlands it was obvious the Jets dominated on the offensive line. Three of their starters, including replacement left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson, are in the Pro Bowl. Running left behind those guys is a good way to win a playoff game on the road in chilly conditions. It is unknown how Domata Peko will perform at defensive tackle after missing over a month with a knee injury. Backup Pat Sims though is out after getting hurt in the finale. Clearly the middle of their defensive line is not at full strength, and standout rookie linebacker Rey Maualuga is also done for the season. This is going to be a physical battle, possibly leading to more guys getting banged up. Coming in short handed is a bad sign. As the season wore on their dominant defense lost a step, giving up 30 at Minnesota, 27 at San Diego and of course 37 last week at New York during the final four games.

If the Bengals can’t contain the running game of Jones and Greene it will be up to their offense to make some plays. Just twice all season have they scored more than 24 points and both of those were prior to the Halloween bye week. Ten times they failed to top 18. This is a serious defense they are going up against. New York leads in scoring (14.8) and in total yards (252.3) by nearly one-third of a football field (32.1 yards) over the #2 team. Revis is likely to shut down Ochocinco, allowing the rest of their defense to hone in on the hard running Benson. Palmer has been a shadow of his 2005-2007 form passing the football, and 5 of his 21 touchdown passes came in one game (Chicago). How far can the emotion of playing for a fallen teammate, Chris Henry, take their passing game? It will be on Palmer to find the open man, Coles or Caldwell are the most likely candidates, if the Bengals are going to have a chance.

There is another factor in play here and it is rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez opposing his fellow Trojan. He has definitely melted down at various times this season and finished with 23 turnovers. However, as the season progressed head coach Rex Ryan put a leash on him. He attempted just 16, 17, 15, 19 and 16 passes in various games this season. All of them were victories with four of the five coming by double digits. Their strategy is going to be relying on the running game until it works, and passing only if there is no other option. I’m always leery of banking on a rookie delivering in a situation like this, but Sanchez can handle the moment. He has also learned his limitations. The defense has given up just 47 points in the past six games and while none of those offenses (other than half the Colts game) are dangerous the Bengals are also limited. It’s a tough call because two months ago they win this game and turn a city upside down. Common sense is what I base my picks on and with the offensive line, running game and Revis factor on defense I like the visitors in an ugly struggle: NY Jets 15, Cincinnati 13 (NYJ +3/under 34)

Philadelphia (11-5) @ Dallas (11-5): Although I picked the Cowboys I was quite shocked (trust me this does not happen often) at how thoroughly they dominated the visiting Eagles. The one factor I expected was trouble on offense with a new center. Not like this though. They finished with just 228 total yards and made no effort to run the ball. Westbrook returned to the lineup and had 5 carries for 17 yards while catching 4 passes for 20 yards. Rookie LeSean McCoy and fullback Leonard Weaver had one rushing attempt each, giving the team 7 from their backfield total. The team has been criticized quite a bit for not committing more of an effort towards the running game, but considering their overall success offensively and as a team this decade it was hard to argue too much. However, in a spot like this what happens when they abandon the run?

DeSean Jackson has been a dynamo down the field making big plays, but when a home run hitter strikes out someone else has to step up. Rookie Jeremy Maclin is not ready for the big time at this point and that leaves a lot on the shoulders of tight end Brent Celek. This is one of those deals where one team has the distinct personnel capable of shutting down an otherwise potent offense. Here’s an interesting stat. When Jackson has a big reception (48+ yards) the team is 6-2. The losses (New Orleans, Oakland) were both early in the season and of the three times he was held without a long gain twice came against Dallas. The other was San Diego. Then there is the matter of McNabb, who is already fighting rumors (again) of his impending exit. He missed 2 ½ games this season, a consistent problem over his career, and otherwise would have likely gone over 4,000 yards for the first time. Another overlooked factor was his typically low turnover total of 13.

If the visiting Eagles want to show up this time it starts with more of an interest running the ball and continues with McNabb knowing what to do if he is unable to find Jackson deep. These guys scored 30+ points 7 times this season and managed 22+ on 13 occasions. Again, it was Dallas limiting them to 16 in two games combined. They seem to have their number and with the defense coming off two shutouts and the dethroning of undefeated New Orleans (17 points) prior to that momentum is very much on their side. Offensively the Cowboys have more options. While McDermott managed to keep the late Jim Johnson’s defense humming early in the season despite going without middle linebacker Stewart Bradley among others the group has started to fade a bit.

Is there a hotter receiver than Miles Austin? Starting on Thanksgiving against Oakland he has 6+ receptions in his final six games and an average of 106.8 yards. Their biggest problem at receiver is getting Roy Williams to shut his mouth because Patrick Crayton is the deep threat and tight end Jason Witten is Mr. Reliable when all else fails. Mixing in a backfield with three dangerous rushers and it is easy to see why their offense is more dangerous when things are going right. A long playoff drought is well documented, including late season chokes from quarterback Tony Romo. Two games with over 310 yards passing over playoff teams (New Orleans, Philadelphia) seem to have quieted those doubts. This is definitely a step up on the intensity meter, but the Eagles were trying to win last week as if it was a playoff game. Their drop from the #2 seed to #6 illustrates that, and ultimately losing last week I believe cost them a run to the Super Bowl: Dallas 27, Philadelphia 19 (DAL -3.5/over 45)

Baltimore (9-7) @ New England (10-6): This rematch is lost in the shuffle because unlike the other three games round 1 did not take place last week. Way back on October 4, with Tom Brady still very much on the mend the Patriots were the first team to knock off the Ravens this season, holding on for a tough 27-21 win. It was a tough game from start to finish and featured limited possessions on both sides. Baltimore had the ball only 8 times, including just once in the first quarter when their long touchdown march was answered by a similarly lengthy drive to tie the game 7-7. A lot of personnel has changed in the past three months though and play tightens up in the playoffs considerably.

The big issue for New England is the loss of Wes Welker. He does have a decent understudy in rookie Julian Edelman. His bookend performances filling in for the stud slot receiver were pretty impressive. In week 2 at the Jets and last week in Houston he combined for 18 receptions and 201 yards. Here is the rub. Out of 37 receptions he scored just once. Welker himself had a mere 4 touchdowns while catching 123 passes and all of them came in October. Three of those were during routs of then struggling (badly) Tennessee and hapless Tampa Bay across the pond. This is in part why the Patriot offense has been relatively down.

Brady did his comeback player of the year thing with 4,398 passing yards and 28 touchdowns, but did so without consistent output from Randy Moss. Of his 13 touchdown receptions, nearly half (6) were in the aforementioned rout of the Titans and a late season blowout over the Jags. Seven times he failed to log a reception over 21 yards. He figures to be double teamed because Baltimore is scary thin at cornerback, but one pop from stud safety Ed Reed could shut down the temperamental Moss and leave the Patriot offense scrambling. New England can run the ball when pressed and the playoffs are generally the time to turn it on. Their heavy reliance on veterans seems to have caught up to them, but does Fred Taylor have one more big game in him? How about Laurence Maroney if he can hold onto the football?

It is hard to overlook New England’s 8-0 home record, but they were just 2-3 overall against playoff teams with one win of course being over Baltimore. The Ravens were a dismal 1-6 against playoff teams. The lone win was way back in week 2 at San Diego before the Chargers started tearing up the NFL. There were definitely heartbreaks along the way, notably three in October starting with the Patriot loss. All told this team only lost to opponents with a winning record and went 3-7 against teams 8-8 or better. They are definitely battle tested and only two of their losses (17-7 at Cincinnati, 27-17 at Green Bay) were by more than 6 points. That’s just it though. They are unable to finish. The Brady I know finishes up. He finds a way. His defense is shaky, but the Ravens are erratic passing the ball and while no one was paying attention New England gave up just 6 rushing touchdowns. Field goals don’t cut it in the playoffs and with zero confidence I’ll take the guy with three rings on his home field: New England 21, Baltimore 16 (NE -3/under 43)

Green Bay (11-5) @ Arizona (10-6): The Cardinals tried to do the right thing not going for the win last week against the Packers, but were burned anyway when three key players suffered injuries. End Calais Campbell, cornerback “DRC” and receiver Anquan Boldin have various ailments. Boldin’s bum ankle is the most serious and will impact the game plan dramatically. The Packers have had a shut down pass defense this season in terms of yardage (201.1) but relied mostly on interceptions (NFL high 30) to overshadow giving up 29 touchdown passes. They are also three cornerbacks down, most notably going without Al Harris opposite of Charles Woodson.

It is important to note this defense allowed Roethlisberger to drop 503 yards just a few weeks ago. Woodson has had a phenomenal season, but he can only cover one side and is nursing a bum shoulder. When the passing game led by Kurt Warner is unleashed this is going to be a much different game, even if Boldin is unavailable. Of course, there is also the matter of Aaron Rodgers having terrorized this defense in the preseason and regular season already this season, and on this field. He won’t get any MVP love, but how does 4.434 passing yards with 30 touchdowns against 11 turnovers (7 picks) strike you? He was fourth in QB rating, yards and touchdowns in the NFL. Thirteen times he passed for at least 235 yards and the team won the three games he didn’t. In 29 of 32 starts since taking over for that Favre guy he has a touchdown pass. Five of his seven interceptions this season came in two games, a stunning 38-28 loss at Tampa Bay and a 27-14 win over Baltimore.

Most importantly the team is winning. In fact, their only loss in the second half of the season was on a nearly immaculate final play reception at Pittsburgh, 37-36. They have only gone 3-3 against playoff teams, even if including last week’s win, but Arizona is just 1-2. How weak was their schedule? And they finished 10-6? Of course, I had these thoughts last year when they were 3-7 outside of the NFC West including several blowout losses. They proceeded to destroy the conference and nearly win the Super Bowl. All I really see in this game is offense, but I know both defenses can turn it on. Green Bay is #2 in total yards allowed and the only concern is having Kurt Warner dice up their secondary, avoiding Woodson in the process. Arizona has a playoff tested unit. I haven’t mentioned the running games yet because like most teams in these playoffs passing is the first priority. Both teams have the personnel to get it done, but if you’re looking for one to do it with the chips on the line I’ll take Green Bay because Grant has experience and the young rushers for Arizona will be going up against a stout run defense. I’ll cite this as the difference: Green Bay 34, Arizona 30 (GB +1/over 47)