Last week I was pretty average, but because I built up a cushion in the wild card round my playoff totals should be pretty good. I was 2-2 straight up (5-3 in playoffs) and 3-1 against the spread (7-1) with a 2-2 mark against the over/under (6-2). Overall I'm not 174-83 straight up, 131-128-5 against the spread and 153-106-4 against the over/under. 

 Baltimore (13-4) @ New England (14-3): This has not been a great season in the AFC, but at least the two best teams are going to play for the conference's bid in the Super Bowl. I'm not exactly sure when the shift took place. I do know that the AFC produced two playoff teams quarterbacked by rookie starters, another by a polarizing figure many think can't throw a football and still another by a battered up three-time conference champ. Anyone fear that quartet of passers and is there any surprise to see those players watching this game from home? 

Joe Flacco is dying for respect he hasn't earned. Tom Brady is mad at the world and has been since every team passed over him multiple times in the draft. One guy has four conference titles and the other is trying out skateboarding a week before the biggest football game of his life. The quarterback position is a mismatch. If it was only that simple I would be done thinking about how to call this game. New England's offense is potent at home, averaging 32.3 points per game. The defense has been painfully soft overall and the venue doesn't change things. They have given up 19.3 a game on this field although last week's 45-10 trashing of Denver created an illusion they are somehow "back". 

Baltimore loves the road in the playoffs. They stomped these Pats here 33-14 two years ago. Still, they only averaged 19.8 points scored on the road his season. They lost puzzlers in Tennessee, Jacksonville, Seattle and San Diego. Two of those can be blamed on cross country travel, which will not be the case here, but the offense has laid some real eggs on the road. The defense gets by on reputation. Reality shows them allowing 18.4 points a game away from Maryland, solid yet not totally suffocating like their Super Bowl winning team. 

If the numbers hold the Ravens will score about 19 and give up about 25. This sounds pretty close to reality. I don't trust the Patriots on defense so I could see Flacco delivering on a few big passes to bolster that total. Brady might respect this defense too much, if that is possible, and he definitely is going to be reluctant to throw at Ed Reed. A turnover or two might limit his team's offensive production. Honestly I have struggled to decide a winner here. The opening line surprised me quite a bit. It seems like John Harbaugh will use the "Who's got it better than us? Nobody!" mantra here. 

The Ravens go from playing an elite defense to one that was a half-yard away from being the worst in the NFL. If defense wins championships they should win. Only two teams allowed fewer yards than the Ravens, but turnovers often decide games like this. As good as their defense is, they trailed the Patriot defense in interceptions 23-15 during the regular season and the defensive scores was only a 4-3 edge for Baltimore. Sacks went to Baltimore (48-40) as well and passes defended is where we see a huge difference. The Ravens have almost twice as many (112-58) and will make life a lot more difficult for Brady than the Patriot defense will for Flacco. 

If we talk about running the ball, Baltimore has the players to put this on Brady's arm although I'm not sure the Patriots are too worried about that scenario. He has a pair of unreal tight ends and a slot receiver for the ages. Conversely, New England's defense has given up plenty of rushing yards and a healthy average rush (4.6). Only the Packers gave up more passing yards than they did (4,703) in the regular season. Baltimore allowed 3,140 and a mere 11 touchdown passes. Brady threw almost that many in the first half last week. I kid, sort of. Something has to give here and I think defense rules for both teams. This is going to be a lower scoring game than most think. The Pats get held to some field goals and the Ravens score on big plays. I'm not going against Brady in this spot, as much as I think I could regret it: New England 26, Baltimore 21 (BAL +9/under 50)

NY Giants (11-7) @ San Francisco (14-3): Is this where the dream season ends? The 49ers have overachieved all season. No one believes otherwise. One of their defining moments in the regular season came against this Giants. They came in 7-1 and the visitors were 6-2. In the end San Francisco came out on top 27-20, but like a lot of their games the opponent exited wondering what happened. The 49ers had just 305 total yards and 16 first downs with 25:23 time of possession, trailing the Giants comfortably in all of those categories. They converted just 27% of their third downs. New York hit on half of theirs, and out of 7 times they failed two of those were converted on fourth down. 

Simply put, New York looked like the better team and still lost. Last week the Saints piled up 472 total yards and won the first down battle 26-17. Of course, losing the turnover battle 5-1 cost them dearly, but even at that they lost by just 4 points and had they gotten the ball back with more than 10 seconds left might have won. It's just that way when you play the 49ers. Having watched them play week after week I still can't figure it out. Their slogan could easily be "Just Win Baby" if it wasn't snatched up by that other team across the bay. 

For the Giants, it's almost as if people have forgotten that this team was outscored 400-394 in the regular season. Yes, that number is correct. When you win 61-22 in two playoff games including a rout of the defending champions people tend to ignore your 9-7 regular season. Honestly, it doesn't matter much that they were swept by Washington because the Redskins aren't the opponent here. Including the trip to Green Bay and a "visit" to the Jets they have averaged a solid 27.2 points per game on the road, but they allowed 26.1. Points aren't going to flow like that in this game, especially in wet conditions. 

At home the 49ers have lost just once, in overtime to Dallas way back on September 18. To put their dominance at home in perspective, in five of their wins they allowed a total of 23 points. Overall, including last week they have given up 13.7 points per game at home. That average went up almost three points because the Saints put up 32. A lot of those quarterbacks were awful, but the conditions will limit Eli Manning's ability to duplicate what Drew Brees did here. Perhaps surprisingly, an offense without household names other than Frank Gore averaged a nice 28.6 points at home. Ironically, crunching those averages New York would score about 20 points just as they did in the first meeting, and the 49ers would score about 27. I don't see that much scoring, or anywhere close.

This is going to be a physical game won in the trenches by grunts. San Francisco has the best run defense in the NFL by a wide margin. They gave up just 77.3 rushing yards per game in the regular season and all 3 rushing scores came late in the year. Teams converted a first down rushing against them just 53 times. By comparison the next closest team to that total allowed 73. New York has to do it on the ground a lot to win this game, and that's going to be difficult. 

On the flip side, New York's defense is on fire. They have a vicious pass rush and go up against an offense that gets by on smoke and mirrors a lot of the time. Out of nowhere they complete a deep pass and score a touchdown after lulling their opponent to sleep with runs and short passes. In this game I don't see an opportunity for them to do that. The kickers are going to be huge here. David Akers set records for field goals made and attempted. He is a veteran of the NFC East so poor weather is nothing new to him and he has plenty of playoff experience. Lawrence Tynes has fewer than half the attempts and makes. In fact he tied for the fewest made field goals among regular kickers. He did send his team to the Super Bowl once though. 

I wish I had a magic potion right about now. I think the Giants are the better team overall. I thought that the first time too though, and I thought it when the 49ers played a few of the better teams this season. I picked New York 21-20 in that first meeting and wouldn't be surprised if neither team hit 20 in the rematch due in part to the weather. Championship defenses are going to show up here. Both quarterbacks are going to turn the ball over, possibly multiple times each. I like the experienced roster just a little more, but regret not going with my gut instinct to take the underdog straight up last week. Even though the 49ers are favored here I still consider them to be a dog. They somehow win a game for the ages on an Akers field goal at the gun and set up a dream Super Bowl: San Francisco 19, NY Giants 17 (NYG +3/under 42)