The late season blues continue to bite me. I was just 10-6 straight up (159-81 overall). I lost against the spread at 6-9-1 (115-121-4 overall) and the over/under at 7-8-1 (139-96-4 overall). The tough week assured I will not set a new mark picking winners since I had 175 in 2009 and even my first-ever perfect 16-0 would only tie. I need to navigate motivation to work the spread as I try to get back to .500 where I usually find myself each year give or take. 

 Detroit (10-5) @ Green Bay (14-1): This is a perfect example of why games are so hard to predict in the final week or two of the NFL season. The Packers have no undefeated season to worry about and don't even have playoff seeding at stake here. There is no reasonable expectation for them to risk likely MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers against a defense that has garnered a bit of a dirty reputation highlighted by Ndamukong Suh's antics. Matt Flynn is a competent backup, but others are likely to also sit out on offense. Typically the defense plays through in games like this. However, the Packers haven't played much defense this year. 

 

Green Bay has allowed 23-plus points seven times this season and of course won all those games because their typical offense is almost unstoppable. This time they won't have that unit to help them against Detroit though. The interesting angle here is looking at the first meeting. The Packers won 27-15 on a memorable Thanksgiving Day affair marred by Suh's stomp. Both quarterbacks were accurate throwing the football except for a few throws where the game was won. Rodgers threw a couple touchdowns and did not turn it over. Matthew Stafford's only score came in the waning seconds when the game was over and he tossed three picks. Can the same defensive effort here help push their division rival to a six-seed?

 

Clearly Detroit wants to win this game and avoid a potential return trip to New Orleans where they just got stomped 45-16. It might be just as bad going to New York because they struggle outdoors and it will be cold, but there is a chance Dallas could be the destination in that five-seed scenario and they already have a win there. The road hasn't been as dangerous this year for the Lions as it has in recent years. They are a crisp 5-2. The challenge here of course is the weather and raucous crowd that will be into it trying to help their team finish 8-0 at Lambeau. 

 

These are two of the worst rushing teams in the league (bottom six yards per game) which normally would be trouble. However, even if neither team has the running backs they thought would be carrying for them at this point the defensive resistance is soft. Green Bay allows 4.7 yards per carry and Detroit is even worse (5.1). Conversely, we have two of the top five passing offenses in the league with a combined 81 touchdown passes. Of course, they have also given up a combined 72 sacks. Negative plays are always a vital part of the calculation. 

 

The Packers have compensated for giving up 4,294 passing yards and 24 scoring throws by recording 29 interceptions. The Lions have 20 picks and give up over 60 fewer yards per game. They also have more sacks (38-27) and will be going up against a line weakened by backup tackles. I'll ride with the team that needs it, but by less than expected: Detroit 27, Green Bay 24 (GB +4.5/over 41)

 

Indianapolis (2-13) @ Jacksonville (4-11): Unfortunately for people with class the ridiculous "Suck for Luck" sweepstakes continues here. The Colts can secure the right to the top pick simply by losing this game, which is something they have not done the past two weeks. Those games were at home, but also came against division rivals. I found it hilarious to hear their clown of a head coach Jim Caldwell proclaim something like "nobody sweeps us!" after upsetting the playoff-bound Texans. Really? I guess you have to hang your hat on something considering they have never been swept as a member of the AFC South, but if they avert it again they better hope Peyton Manning's neck will put him in position to play like a future Hall of Famer as opposed to a has-been. Missing out on Stanford's Andrew Luck could impact them for the next decade. 

 

In the first meeting six weeks ago the Jaguars slugged out a 17-3 win, mostly by retaining possession of the ball (35:21) and winning the turnover battle (3-1). Maurice Jones-Drew ran for 114 yards and picked up another 23 in the passing game which represented 55% of his team's offense. The Colts had 212 yards and their longest drive (68 yards) came late in the fourth quarter when they were down 14 and produced no points. 

 

Both teams are in the bottom five for scoring offense so points should be at a premium. The Jaguars flat out can't score. Other than bullying around a Tampa Bay team that had quit they have not exceeded 20 points all season. Their defense has played very well in spots, keeping them within a single score in five of their losses. The Colts have lost seven times by double digits including the first meeting but just once over the past five weeks (24-10 at Baltimore). Their defense is not good on road though having not held a team below 24 points while going 0-7 and the average allowed is 32.7 including a 62-7 drubbing in New Orleans. 

 

Something has to give when it comes to Jacksonville scoring. I think their offense struggles yet again and this becomes a "you take it" type of game between two bad teams. Lately the Colts are running the ball better, but MJD's presence gives the edge to the Jags who should take advantage of a defense that has allowed 19 rushing scores and over 140 yards a game. Jacksonville's run defense is, all things considered, pretty solid. 

 

These are two of the three worst passing teams in the league with a combined 24 touchdown passes against 27 interceptions. No quarterback suited up will be accurate. The Jaguars have forced more interceptions (15-8) and the Colts give up a ridiculous completion percentage (71.7%) so maybe rookie Blaine Gabbert can end his first campaign on a high note. Let's face it the Colts have done enough winning to ward off shouts of them tanking for the top pick. They are not the better team in this matchup. It's really that simple, and some garbage points flow because lazy tackling is a staple of meaningless week 17 games: Jacksonville 24, Indianapolis 17 (JAX -3.5/over 37)

 

NY Jets (8-7) @ Miami (5-10): This is a delicious matchup. The Jets are a horrific road team trying to get over on a Dolphins team that has the ability to wreck their wild card dreams. Just look at last week when Miami nearly put a crimp in New England's plans to secure the top seed. Adding to the drama, Jason Taylor is retiring after the game. He has played on both sides of this rivalry, but clearly his heart is with Miami and he would love to put the Jets out of it. 

 

There are some people who believe New York will overcome the wild scenarios and somehow make the playoffs. In the last two postseasons they have won a pair of road games to reach the AFC Championship Game. This year they are just 2-5 on the road winning only in nearby Washington and Buffalo. Their play has been erratic to say the least. This vaunted defense has allowed 34, 34, 30, 37, 45 and 29 points in various games this season. Only seven times have they held opponents under 22 points and they are 6-1 in those games. Anyone who wants to blame this season on quarterback Mark Sanchez should think about those numbers. 

 

Miami's defense has not given up more than 26 points to any team other than New England (twice) so they typically hold their own. Eight times they have held a team to no more than 20 points, splitting those games. The offense, however, has failed to hit 20 eight times and they lost all of those games. For them to score the Dolphins need to run the ball and even though Reggie Bush isn't a typical feature back his absence kills them as does left tackle Jake Long joining him in street clothes. 

 

I hate to pin a game on injuries, but in this case Miami will be in a serious hole against New York's motivated defense. Throwing on the Jets is no easy task as Matt Moore found out in the first meeting. He completed just 47% of his throws with a couple interceptions, one of which was housed by Darrelle Revis. Brandon Marshall had a big game and Miami's defense held down any threat of a "ground and pound" running attack. 

 

The Dolphins can't protect the quarterback (51 sacks) so expect Rex Ryan to dial up some blitzes knowing the opposing offense has limited offensive weapons to hurt him. I look for a really low scoring game here. It might even play out like a playoff game because of how much the Dolphins want to prevent their bitter rivals from even whiffing a wild card bid. In the end they don't have enough offense to do anything about it: NY Jets 20, Miami 16 (NYJ +3/under 39)

 

Carolina (6-9) @ New Orleans (12-3): The prolific rookie campaign of quarterback Cam Newton comes to a close here, and on the same field the new single-season passing champ Drew Brees attempts to hold onto his record. You see, while the Saints want to win this game in order to keep their bye week hopes alive it might be a moot point by the fourth quarter if the 49ers are handily beating the Rams. Would they pull Brees in that scenario? If he takes a seat early and doesn't put up big numbers New England's Tom Brady might make up the 190-yard deficit to "steal" the record. 

 

The Panthers don't care about any of this. The new face of their franchise is ninth in passing yards and poised to be the first rookie ever to eclipse 4,000 in a season. Only five quarterbacks have more total yards than Newton when rushing yards (674 are factored in) and just four have more combined passing and rushing touchdowns than the top pick's 34. He wants to go out in style and in a game featuring two of the top five scoring offenses anything is possible. The first meeting proved that as Brees led a dramatic comeback in the final minute with a touchdown pass for a 30-27 win. 

 

 

New Orleans has the offense in high gear that much is clear. A short week probably won't impact them although the urge to rest players will be intense late in the game if it is apparent San Francisco will not lose. They have put up 40-plus points five times this season including the past two weeks. More importantly their defense has not let an opponent score over 20 in four straight and five times during their current seven game winning streak. The Giants put up 24 here in another MNF whitewash, but other than that the Saints haven't let an opponent go off since way back in September during a 40-33 win over Houston. 

 

I like how loose Carolina will be in this game. They feel great having won four of five, but this is a different deal compared to most of those games. The lone loss was against the most competent quarterback, a 31-23 setback against Atlanta's Matt Ryan. They whipped the crashing Bucs twice, Indianapolis and Houston who is starting a fifth-round rookie. Still, in this league wins are wins and three of those came on the road. Speaking of which, fatigue has to be a factor. The schedule maker did them no favors as this is their fifth road game in seven weeks. 

 

Teams don't get to run on the Saints (fewest rushes against in the league) because they fall behind, but they do give up 4.8 yards per carry. The Panthers can be run on as well and records be damned I think they will explore that area. Obviously no one passes the ball better on paper than New Orleans, but it is worth noting their defense has also given up 4,020 yards. This should be a high scoring game with the home team trying to put away the visitors painlessly, Good luck with that because Newton won't quit. In fact I wouldn't be shocked to see him steal a victory here with some late dramatics. I'll predict him to fall just short: New Orleans 31, Carolina 28 (CAR +8/over 54.5)

 

Chicago (7-8) @ Minnesota (3-12): The Vikings might have really screwed up their quarterback position. At the moment it looks like Joe Webb is better than he is being given credit for. Meanwhile rookie Christian Ponder's confidence is shaken along with his brain thanks to a concussion. All of this uncertainty could have been shelved in favor of drafting Stanford's Andrew Luck, but they won their way out of position to do so. Making matters worse, their star running back Adrian Peterson is on the shelf with a nasty knee injury likely to force him out for at least the first month of the 2012 season. 

 

Maybe the Bears can relate a little to the problems of their division rivals. Coming off winning the NFC North and appearing in the conference championship game the Bears were swimming along at 7-3. Then their backfield of quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte went down. Five losses later they are staring at a losing season. So much has changed since the first meeting won by the Bears 39-10. In that one Donovan McNabb started for the Vikings. He has since been cut. Cutler was terrific completing 68% of his passes for 267 yards and a couple touchdowns. Forte and Marion Barber combined for 109 yards rushing on 28 carries against a stingy run defense. Deven Hester was a huge factor with two long scores, but on his gimpy ankle it's tough to expect an encore. 

 

Chicago went to two domes early in the season, losing by double digits in New Orleans and Detroit. Their two road wins came sandwiched around the bye week at Tampa Bay and Philadelphia, but they have dropped three straight away from the Windy City without their stars. The past two weeks they have allowed 73 points. Minnesota on the other hand has a bit of momentum coming off a win at Washington. They have been engaged in four straight high scoring affairs with totals of 67, 62, 62 and 59 points. If this turns into a shootout they have to be the favorite. 

 

It looks like the Bears are going with Josh McCown and Kahlil Bell in their backfield. This is technically a battle of two teams in the top 8 for rushing yards per game, but without Peterson and Forte the defenses have the upper hand. Both defenses are competent against the run and should force the action on the quarterbacks who are not exactly Pro Bowl material. McCown is going to be on the run with Jared Allen (18 1/2 sacks) chasing him down. Even though both defenses are in the bottom 5 for pass defense the pass rush edge gives Minnesota the nod. Plus they are riding the crowd noise. As long as their quarterbacks don't throw this one away they should slug out a pointless win here: Minnesota 21, Chicago 17 (MIN -1/under 41) 

 

Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (12-3): Remember when the Bill roared back from a 21-0 deficit to stun the Patriots 34-31? Those were good times. Their 5-2 start was wasted thanks to a seven game slide they finally ended last week with a beat down of Denver. The Patriots won three straight after the upset loss and currently share the league's longest win streak at seven. They need to make it eight in order to assure the top seed and home field throughout the playoffs. Sometimes a loose opponent can cause problems in a spot like this, but having already lost to the Bills makes it hard for me to expect that here. 

 

The Patriots are nothing if not vengeful, and on offense it is nearly impossible to hold them down. Last week Miami had them on the ropes down 17-0 before the touchdown drives starting coming. Still, the 27 points marked the lowest output since the winning streak began. Defensively they clearly have their flaws and consistently give up in the 20-27 range. The offense almost always has enough to bail them out though. 

 

On the road the Bills have really struggled since opening the season with a 41-7 trashing of the Chiefs in Kansas City. They lost a few close games (Cincinnati, Giants, Jets) and a few blowouts (Dallas, Miami, San Diego). The offense has not shown a consistent ability to score enough points to replicate their early season upset. No Fred Jackson handicaps them as does the loss of Kyle Williams up front. The Patriots use the run effectively as evidenced by their 16 rushing scores and 98 first downs on the ground. They have also fumbled just twice and lost none. I like what C.J. Spiller has done lately, but I don't know if it's enough to match scores here. 

 

Some people are looking for Tom Brady to chase the passing record here, besting Drew Brees by the required 190 yards on week 17, but I don't see it that way. I think they run over a team that is ready to quit. Wearing them down is the better way to go in this spot. Players on losing teams don't enjoy tackling in cold weather with nothing on the line playing on the road. I know the Patriots are awful on defense, especially against the pass, but they do have 19 interceptions and 38 sacks on their ledger. All they need to do is put Ryan Fitzpatrick behind and force mistakes. I see a comfortable win here: New England 31, Buffalo 20 (NE -10/over 49.5)

 

Tennessee (8-7) @ Houston (10-5): When the Titans lost to the Texans 41-7 at home in the first meeting I vowed never to back them again in a big game. I never expected them to be in a fight for a playoff spot in week 17 and now I have to make a decision. This is a very complicated matchup. It looks like wide receiver Andre Johnson will play even though the Texans are locked into the third seed for the playoffs regardless of any outcomes this week. The move makes sense if they want to see how effective he might be in a game that counts. On the other side the Titans need this win as they hope to steal a wild card berth and as it turns out a return trip here next week. 

 

Personally I don't think Houston wants to screw around with a team featuring Chris Johnson in the playoffs. They would just as soon put them out of it right now and take their chances against perhaps Oakland or the Jets. Most importantly their defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is back and they are well rested having played on Thursday Night in week 16. The defense has been spotty in his absence. Other than the loss to Newton's Panthers when Phillips was out and the post-Al Davis game against the Raiders this defense has been lights out at home giving up 7, 10, 14, 12 and 10 points. I expect a similar effort here with the season on the line. 

 

The Titans are dealing with a bit of distraction as their head coach Mike Munchak deals with rumors about his potential interest in taking over at Penn State. They have hung around the playoff picture all season having never lost three in a row. If not for road losses to division foes Jacksonville and Indianapolis they would already have the wild card wrapped up. Ironic that their hopes now rest on another road game within the AFC South. Their defense has stood up for the most part since getting dismantled in the first meeting. The most they gave up was actually 27 to the Colts over the past nine weeks. 

 

Defense should determine this outcome. Both teams are in the top 7 for scoring defense limiting opponents below 20 per game. Tennessee gets the veteran quarterback edge and wouldn't it be interesting if Matt Hasselbeck was sidelined to force rookie Jake Locker to defeat fellow rookie T.J. Yates who was taken four rounds later? Yates has a consistent running game to lean on while the Titans hope CJ2K lives up to his old nickname with long runs. The disparity in rushing yards per game (+63) gives a huge edge to the home team here. 

 

The Texans are strong against the run and the Titans have given up their share so that advantage should hold up as the game plays out. Tennessee protects their quarterback and the football which keeps them in games. Houston doesn't turn it over much either and will not be throwing if they can help it. If it's on Hasselbeck or Locker to win this game, well good luck against a defense that has 41 sacks and give up just 184 yards passing per game. I know they don't need to win, but are they going to mail it in? I don't think so. I see their defense taking over the action and giving them some much needed momentum for the playoffs: Houston 23, Tennessee 17 (HOU +1.5/over 39)

 

Washington (5-10) @ Philadelphia (7-8): This is one of just four totally meaningless games on the schedule, but don't tell these division rivals. The Redskins have already scored a sweep over the hated Giants and can finish 3-3 in NFC East play with a win here. The Eagles won the first meeting 20-13 and in a lost season can take solace in finishing 5-1 against the division by winning here. Three straight victories have given fans a glimpse of what the "Dream Team" was supposed to be all along. A win here will leave them in second place regardless of the outcome between the Giants and Cowboys because they hold the tiebreaker over both teams. 

 

The first meeting was a mess. Rex Grossman threw 4 interceptions and Philly finished with a big edge in total yards (422-287). LeSean McCoy ran wild (126 yards) and the Redskins couldn't run at all (42 yards). It will take quite a turnaround for them to hang tough in the rematch. Their road performance has been pretty solid this year though at 3-4 including wins in Seattle and New York (Giants) plus a close loss at Dallas. The Eagles are happy to be home after spending three of the past four weeks on the road, but they lost here to New York (Giants), San Francisco, Chicago, Arizona and New England. The wins were blowouts over Dallas and two weeks ago over the Jets. 

 

It's anyone's guess what to expect here. The Redskins can rush the passer and that's a huge factor when trying to stop Vick from making big plays. If they can knock him around it will be close. On the flip side they can't protect their quarterback (40 sacks) which has led to 23 interceptions. The Eagles have thrown 24 picks and are a mess on the offensive line so anything is possible here. I think it could be a low scoring struggle similar to the first meeting or an all-out assault if the defenses have their minds on the golf course. Philly's pass rush (49 sacks) will win out I think and be the deciding factor in a game that I see as closer than expected: Philadelphia 23, Washington 20 (WAS +8.5/under 45.5)

 

San Francisco (12-3) @ St. Louis (2-13): This is the last of the early starts and probably the easiest to figure out. The 49ers need to blow out the Rams and get about the business of resting up for their divisional playoff round. Just a month ago they shut them out 26-0 and in the process allowed just 157 total yards in the process. On the road it will be tough for them to repeat that outcome. Of note, traveling has not been too much of a problem for the 49ers who are 5-2 on the road. The defense gave up some big plays to cost them the game in Arizona, and a short week wrecked them in Baltimore. 

 

Overall this defense has been lights out. They are first in scoring defense and going up the worst scoring offense in the league. The Rams have scored more than 16 points just twice all season, a head-scratching 31-21 win over New Orleans and 23-20 loss to Arizona. The defense consistently gives up at least 20 points which is how this team keeps losing games. It's pretty simple. 

 

I like the 49ers to run early and often and to prevent the Rams form countering with Steven Jackson. The best run defense visits the worst run defense, another recipe for disaster. Putting this game on the arm of Kellen Clemens is not going to work for the Rams. If anything it is interesting for the first half because are dealing with old rivals here. St. Louis would revel in spoiling the bye week plans of the 49ers, but they don't have the offense to do it: San Francisco 24, St. Louis 10 (SF -10.5/under 35.5)

 

Tampa Bay (4-11) @ Atlanta (9-6): This is the kind of situation I hate. The Falcons might have nothing to play for here and as a result pull their key players. If Detroit beats Green Bay they are locked into the six seed and can focus on a trip to, in all likelihood, New Orleans instead of worrying about this outcome. Will it really matter though? The Bucs have totally collapsed. Their 10-6 finish last year is a distant memory and a lot of it is a result of a 1-6 road record. Since winning at Minnesota in their first road game they have given up 37.0 points per road loss and only come within a single score once. Overall, that close loss in Tennessee (23-17) is the only time since the bye week (8 games) they have lost by fewer than 9 points. 

 

Again I ask, does it matter if the Falcons play some backups? Amazingly, the Buccaneers are going for a season sweep. They built a 16-3 lead heading into the final quarter and held on for a 16-13 win last time around. Matt Ryan threw for 330 yards, but turned it over 3 times and Michael Turner was bottled up (11 rushes for 20 yards).  The Falcons also have to deal with a bit of a hangover on a short week having been hammered at New Orleans on MNF. I'm not sure exactly how engaged they will be here if in fact the Lions render this game meaningless. 

 

As illustrated the Bucs have been awful on the road, but dome games haven't been their biggest issue. The lone win was at the Vikings and the Saints didn't blow them out (27-16). Running the ball is going to be a big factor. Atlanta loves to control the ball and might be turning to rookie Jacquizz Rodgers in their version of the "Civil War". You see, he went to Oregon State and his opposite number LeGarrette Blount went to Oregon. Blount has really regressed and Tampa Bay's running game has stalled. I just don't see Tampa Bay's run defense showing up here. 

 

The controversial addition of wide receiver Julio Jones has paid off on paper with the Falcons passing for 4,188 yards and 27 touchdowns to date which normally would give them a big edge over a team that has thrown 21 picks. In this one, however, personnel is going to impact that advantage. I normally wouldn't hesitate to predict a blowout here. I'm hesitant because of the circumstances although I think the running of "Quizz" against a team that checked out weeks ago should be enough for the Falcons to coast: Atlanta 27, Tampa Bay 14 (ATL -10/under 45.5)

 

Seattle (7-8) @ Arizona (7-8): Technically this is a meaningless game, but I see two teams capable of making a run at the playoffs in 2012 if they can figure out the quarterback position. For now it is John Skelton against Tarvaris Jackson. Way back in September the Seahawks won the first meeting 13-10. If they can pull off the sweep they can actually improve their record from last year's division winning 7-9 mark. In that first meeting Chris Wells wasn't around to run the rock and Marshawn Lynch paced a 122-yard team rushing effort in the ugly win. 

 

Seattle's famous road woes took them out of the division chase early as they lost four of their first five road games. They won their last two (St. Louis, Chicago) as part of a late season charge. Until running into the San Francisco defense last week they had put up 30-plus points in three straight. The defense has limited opponents to under 20 points in six of their past seven games which has triggered the 5-2 record over that stretch. 

 

Arizona is 5-2 on the road and has won four straight in the desert. They are frighteningly consistent on offense having scored 20, 19, 19, 21 and 20 points in their past five home games and equally so on defense having allowed 13, 13, 19 and 17 in the past four. If they can keep the scoring down I like their chances. They started out 1-4 in one score games, but have since gone 6-1 with the loss being last week in Cincinnati. 

 

The Seahawks have the better run defense, but on the road without anything on the line I'm not sure how into it they are going to be. Lynch could hit "Beast Mode" and help his team's cause, but I always worry about a bad quarterback in a hostile environment. Seattle has given up 46 sacks and gotten by without scoring much because they have just 13 interceptions. Arizona allows even more sacks (52) and has to throw more to compensate for more picks (22). The Seahawks have 21 interceptions and need to get a couple to compete here. The Cards have just 9 and need to rely on their pass rush. I could talk myself into either team so I'm going home team in a close one: Arizona 20, Seattle 19 (SEA +3/under 41)

 

San Diego (7-8) @ Oakland (8-7): There are various scenarios for the Raiders here, but they will be motivated to win by kickoff regardless of how the early games go. If either the Jets win or Tennessee loses early, however, it gets a lot more interesting. They will then be scoreboard watching for either Cincinnati to lose, giving them a wild card berth, or for Denver to lose giving them the AFC West title. Of course, they also have to beat the Chargers or none of that matters. Philip Rivers is going to have something to say about that, as will their former head coach Norv Turner. 

 

In the first meeting Carson Palmer returned to SoCal and came up huge in Oakland's 27-20 win throwing for 299 yards on just 14 completions. Rivers threw the ball 47 times and had fewer yards (274). Michael Bush ran 30 times for 157 yards and rookie backup Taiwan Jones had another 39 on 7 carries. The defense, however, has struggled to hold teams down in the Black Hole where the team is just 3-4. They have only limited one team, inept Cleveland, below 20 points. If Rivers and this offense are allowed to go off it's going to be interesting to see how this game plays out. It should be tight to the end. 

 

Both offenses and defenses score and allow plenty of points on average. It would not be surprising to see this game hit the twenties on both sides. Even without Darren McFadden, as was the case the first time around, the Raiders should have the rushing edge because both Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert are dealing with hamstring issues. In a game of no consequence to them how hard will they run against a defense that has already contained them? There is something to be said for a motivated defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. On the flip side how much do the Chargers want to tackle Bush? 

 

Rivers will come to play, but he is taking on a defense that forces a lot of errant passes and delivers plenty of sacks (39). If they fall behind and put too much on his shoulders he might start throwing at the wrong team. This should be a great game and somewhat of a playoff atmosphere if the Chargers follow the lead of Rivers, but I'm not certain they will. It's more likely that the defense folds up early and the Raiders do their part to make the playoffs: Oakland 24, San Diego 20 (OAK -2.5/under 48.5)

 

Kansas City (6-9) @ Denver (8-7): The scenario is simple for the Broncos, win and secure the AFC West title. Losing would put them in the position of hoping the Chargers beat the Raiders to help them back in. The quarterback situation adds a level of intrigue here. Cutting Kyle Orton could wind up being a killer mistake if he leads the Chiefs to a win. In the first meeting he watched from the sidelines backing up Tim Tebow as he went 2/8 for 69 yards in Denver's 17-10 win. Lance Ball carried the rock 30 times for 96 yards as the Broncos ran it 55 times. 

 

I'm not sure the rematch is going to be such a defensive struggle, even with interim coach Romeo Crennel likely designing a solid scheme to contain Tebow. Clearly Denver is going to do their damage on the ground, and motivated only by pride it will be tough for Kansas City to do more than prevent a total demolition. The Broncos give up their share of rushing yardage, but the Chiefs have limited weapons in their backfield to hurt them. 

 

Both teams can rush the passer. Denver has more sacks (40-27) but Tamba Hali and Justin Houston are different players with Crennel calling the shots. Orton is the superior passer if he can avoid the rush and the Broncos have just 9 interceptions so turnovers shouldn't be a factor. Actually, turnovers are what undoes Tebow. When he gives it away their defense folds and in all of their losses with him starting they have allowed 40-plus points. I don't see it happening here by any stretch of the imagination. I look for a return to "Tebow Time" in the fourth quarter after a back-and-forth first three quarters: Denver 20, Kansas City 19 (KC +3/over 37.5)

 

Pittsburgh (11-4) @ Cleveland (4-11): The Steelers are pretty much applying pressure to the Ravens here by forcing them to win their late start as well to secure the bye week and division title. Pittsburgh is just 4-3 away from Heinz Field so they would love to somehow grab home field for the divisional round and avoid a first round game. They started their road slate with a 35-7 loss at Baltimore and have just one convincing road win, 32-20 at Arizona. Having just played the Browns three weeks ago it is pretty easy to measure how this one will turn out. 

 

In that meeting Ben Roethlisberger did the impossible in the second half playing on a bum ankle directing a 14-3 win. Defense was the order of the evening with a 79-yard touchdown strike late boosting Pittsburgh's total yards (416) in what was otherwise a struggle to move the ball by both teams. Scoring and moving the chains has been a huge issue for Cleveland all season. They have scored more than 17 points just twice, a 23-20 loss to Cincinnati and 27-19 win over Indianapolis. The defense has limited nine opponents to no more than 20 points, but they are still just 4-5 in those games. 

 

I feel like another defensive struggle is coming. The rivals thing comes into play yet again here. The Browns can be feisty as they showed in Baltimore last week making it close. Three straight road games probably have worn them down though. Two of those were against the teams vying for the AFC North title and four of their last five will have been against the Steelers and Ravens in fact. That's a tough stretch and trying to keep fighting in week 17 with nothing at stake is a challenge. 

 

Cleveland can't run the ball and Pittsburgh will not let them so they are immediately at a big disadvantage against a defense capable of wrecking opposing quarterbacks. Pittsburgh should be able to run the ball a bit here, especially if they are in control. Passing the ball is going to be tough for either team because this is a showdown of the two best pass defenses statistically having allowed a grand total of 5,343 yards and 31 touchdowns. 

 

I'll take the veteran Big Ben, hobbled as he might be, in this spot although he has to protect the ball. The Browns have just 9 interceptions on the year so he should be able to. I look for a gritty win for the visitors, but wouldn't be stunned to see a straight up upset here. Don't ask me how, but if they can hang tough on the road against a 7-1 home team maybe they hang tight here as well: Pittsburgh 20, Cleveland 14 (CLE +7/over 33.5)

 

Baltimore (11-4) @ Cincinnati (9-6): A lot is on the line here. The Ravens secure home field in the playoffs with a victory and since they are 8-0 at home and 3-4 on the road that is huge. The Bengals can get a wild card spot no one expected them to have a chance at if they are able to win. It won't be easy, but if the first meeting is any indication it won't be impossible. Baltimore won that game 31-24. They also recorded just 13 first downs and gave up 483 total yards including 373 yards passing by rookie Andy Dalton. They nearly squandered a 31-14 lead and were bolstered by a 3-1 edge in turnovers. 

 

Ray Rice had 104 yards rushing in that one, but 59 came on one run. The other 19 carries he averaged just 2.37 yards. Cedric Benson needs to be the better back in this one for the Bengals to win and he has some history on his side, albeit from 2009 when he twice surpassed the century mark against the Ravens carrying the ball 51 times for 237 yards that season. I look for both run defenses to have their way here, putting it on the quarterbacks to decide the outcome. Two top five run defenses against average rushing offenses likely means neither team puts up triple digits on the ground. 

 

The passing offenses are actually pretty comparable on paper. Baltimore only passes for 15 more yards per game and the touchdown/interception totals are about the same even though Cincinnati has gone with a rookie from the jump. The Bengals give up fewer sacks (24-32) which is a factor because both teams are averaging roughly three per game on defense. Cincinnati allows almost twice as many passing touchdowns (20-11) and has fewer interceptions (10-15) though. The desire not to travel and experience at quarterback carry the Ravens here in a tight game: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 17 (BAL -1.5/over 38)

 

Dallas (8-7) @ NY Giants (8-7): Like last year SNF's finale will be essentially a playoff game and decide a division title. The loser actually will finish third in the NFC East if the Eagles win. Just a month ago these teams hooked up in an epic game, also on SNF, won by the Giants 37-34. The Cowboys were up by 12 with 5:41 to play and seemingly in charge only to blow another lead at home. Giving up 510 total yards is never good and neither is allowing your opponent 34:19 in time of possession. Eli Manning threw for 400 yards and was not sacked on any of his 47 pass attempts. 

 

Tony Romo's nearly perfect stat line completing 68% of his throws for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns without a turnover was wasted. This offense has to flip the switch after falling flat last week against Philadelphia in a 20-7 loss with Romo sidelined most of the way. After he played hurt in a comeback win at San Francisco I'm not counting him out for a dramatic performance here. Their play on the road has been erratic at 3-4, but the Giants are just 4-4 at MetLife Stadium if you throw in their win over the Jets last week. They do have the advantage of playing at home (technically) for three straight weeks since the comeback win at Dallas. 

 

The Giants have really been unpredictable on defense and that is a concern. Seven times they have given up 27 or more points and they are just 2-5 in those games, of course including the victory in the first meeting. The offense has made it to at least 24 points ten times and they are 7-3 in those games. The Cowboys have only let six teams score more than 20 points against them, but in those contests they are just 2-4. They are 5-2 when the offense scores at least 27 points, again including the loss against the Giants. A lot of scoring probably favors New York. 

 

A big issue for Dallas is their inability to run for touchdowns (5). New York has the worst rushing offense (yards per game) in the NFL yet has punched it in 16 times. The Cowboys might win on the ground here, but it still comes down to the quarterbacks. Both teams are top 8 in passing offense. Dallas does a better job protecting the ball (11-16 edge interceptions) and New York is better at limiting sacks (26-33). The pass rush for the Giants (42) and Cowboys (40) is going to be a huge factor. Home field could be the difference there, and in the game: NY Giants 26, Dallas 24 (DAL +3/over 47.5)