Well that was fun. I didn't set a new record straight up after going 10-6 last week (169-81 overall) but I beat a lot of the other pickers including all of the ESPN guys (easily). I squeezed out a 9-6-1 showing against the spread (124-127-5 overall) and I can live with almost being even. Now for the good news. I thought mentioning I could set a new record versus the over/under would jinx me so I didn't. I went 8-8 (147-104-4 overall) besting my 2004 mark (141-107-6). For the regular season I was +40 against Vegas, but gambling is for suckers. Only the casinos and bookies win. Let's talk playoffs.
Cincinnati (9-7) @ Houston (10-6): The Texans finally broke through and made the playoffs. Yeah, it took Peyton Manning being out for the season but let's not talk about that. They were only 6-4 outside of the woefully weak AFC South. I can forgive choking on TNF in Indy and last week against Tennessee, their divisional losses, because they were dealing with a quarterback carousel and their defensive coordinator Wade Phillips taking a leave.
In big time games this team lost road games to New Orleans (40-33) and Baltimore (29-14). Neither of those mean much because they are at home now and at that point had regular starting quarterback Matt Schaub. At home they beat Pittsburgh (17-10) and Atlanta (17-10) including the latter with rookie T.J. Yates starting. The big deal here is their defense and running game. Yates is not going to be throwing much. On defense, from weeks 7-12 they gave up no more than 14 points. On the season they were touched up at home three times. The first was against Oakland a day after Al Davis died in a tough spot. The last two were late in the year against upstart Carolina and desperate Tennessee.
On the other sideline the Bengals are one of the most surprising playoff teams in recent memory. Rookie Andy Dalton has been terrific taking over from the jump. His team has lost exactly one game by more than 8 points all season, a 35-7 thumping in Pittsburgh. Maybe close doesn't get it done, but the point is that he has had them competitive throughout. They lost tight early games to playoff teams in Denver (24-22) and against San Francisco (13-8). They were swept by divisional rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh, and lost a home game to these Texans 20-19. Overall their road mark against playoff teams was 0-3 and this is a bottom line business now.
The talk is about Dalton being better and more prepared than Yates. He is, but unfortunately for him his defense is not ready to take on this Houston rushing offense. Arian Foster and Ben Tate have combined to carry the ball 453 for 2,166 yards and 14 touchdowns. Foster did most of the damage in the receiving game, but as a duo they caught 66 balls for 715 yards and 2 more scores. In an average game they put up 180 total yards and a touchdown.
Houston's running game is easily superior to what Cincinnati brings with Cedric Benson who had to struggle past a thousand yards at 1,067 with 6 touchdowns. He has gone over the century mark just three times and two of those were against Cleveland. On defense the Texans allow just 96 rushing yards a game, slightly superior to the Bengals. The home field advantage and availability of two dynamic backs will really push the rushing numbers in favor of Houston.
One Cincinnati has to start passing they are up against it. Rookie A.J. Green is special, but he is just one player in his first huge game. Houston's defense has rung up 44 sacks and allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete just 51.9% of their passes. If Dalton is missing on half his throws and running for his life it's not going to be pretty. The Bengals have a good pass defense too and an equally imposing pass rush (45 sacks) if they can ever get to it. I look for the fired up home team to get up early and really slug this one out. If the home field was flipped here I likely would flip the result: Houston 23, Cincinnati 17 (HOU -4/over 38)
Detroit (10-6) @ New Orleans (13-3): It's rematch Saturday in the NFL and that works out well for the schedule. The teams playing on Sunday need the regular number of days to prepare whereas at least this quartet can look back on the first meeting. A month ago Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees threw the ball around the dome in New Orleans for a combined 750 yards while both completing over 70%, but the Saints were in charge throughout and won 31-17. The Lions committed 11 penalties for 107 yards and had the game's only turnover. They can't have any of that if they want to beat a team that is 8-0 in their building.
Brees and his record-setting 5,476 passing yards will be looking to ride the momentum this year. Last time around they tanked in week 17, losing to Tampa Bay 23-13 at home and were sunk in Seattle against a 7-9 division champion. This time they ran up 42-20, 45-16 and 45-17 wins over the final three weeks and look unstoppable. If there is an area of concern it might be 3 interceptions Brees has thrown the past two weeks. Like it matters when he threw 9 touchdown passes in those games, but still.
At one point the Lions were totally inept on the road. This is a new team and they have not been intimated away from their dome. They were winners outdoors on grass in Tampa Bay, Denver and Oakland while getting blown out in Chicago. They came back to win in Dallas and as previously mentioned lost in New Orleans. What troubles me about the Lions and any hope of an upset is that they got San Francisco, Atlanta and Green Bay at home without a victory which left them 1-5 against playoff teams. Last week at the Packers while trying to avoid making this trip was a defensive embarrassment. In retrospect it kept them indoors, but I'd have given them a shot in New York nevertheless because of the experience gained in adverse conditions.
When two of the top four scoring teams in the league hook up it's all about the offense. This is the first time two 5,000 yard passers will hook up in a playoff game and few people truly appreciate what Stafford has done. He was 27 yards per game short of Brees, and completed a lower percentage (63.2% to 71.3%) of course since the veteran set an NFL record in that department as well. However, his touchdown-to-pick ratio (41-16) is only slightly inferior (46-14). The biggest area of concern is sacks. New Orleans has the lead in sacks allowed (24-36) and while Detroit leads defensively (41-33) some of that edge goes away with the dome crowd noise.
Turnovers weren't a factor in the first meeting so I feel like they might be in the rematch. The Lions have a huge interception edge on defense (21-9) and need that to show up in the box score for them to compete here. Even though the Saints give up 20 more yards per game, teams are throwing from behind on them and their completion percentage allowed is lower. Crunching the numbers Brees should complete two-thirds of his throws while Stafford is around 60%. Mix in the pressure of Detroit's running game resting on the legs of Kevin Smith and it could be a problem.
New Orleans gave up a future top draft pick to go get Mark Ingram so they wouldn't be stuck starting a guy like Julius Jones in the playoffs like last year in Seattle. He is on IR, but Pierre Thomas is still healthy and free agent pickup Darren Sproles is a matchup problem. The shifty back has 87 carries for 603 yards and 86 receptions for another 710 yards. He has scored 9 touchdowns and really sparked this offense. He actually leads the team in rushing and only tight end Jimmy Graham had more catches or touchdowns on this high scoring offense.
As a team the Saints are surprisingly sixth in rushing offense. The Lions are 29th. They have been so hopeless running the ball that in just 6 games before going on IR Jahvid Best ran for 390 yards and is the team's leading rusher. Smith has battled injuries since returning to the league in November, but let's not sugar coat what he has done. He ran over a horrible Carolina run defense (140 yards). Throw out that game and he has not run for even 50 yards in a game with a 3.85 yard average. He did touch the ball 12 times for 80 yards and a score in the first meeting so there is that. Both teams give up an even 5 yards per carry, but which team is equipped to capitalize? It's the Saints. Their offense will only stop on turnovers and field goal attempts: New Orleans 41, Detroit 27 (NO -10.5/over 59.5)
Atlanta (10-6) @ NY Giants (9-7): I know the Falcons wanted to win so they could avoid another trip to New Orleans, but this is a tough spot for them outdoors in cold weather. Their offense is known for running the ball and controlling the clock. However, Michael Turner has not been a dominant force this season even though his numbers look good overall. Nine times, or more than half the games if you suck at math, his average was 3.7 yards per carry or below. Six of those came on the road. His two effective road games were the opener in Chicago and week 7 in Detroit. Well, against the Bears he busted a 53-yard run and had 47 yards on his other 9 carries in a game the team lost 30-12. The Lions game was in a dome. Neither was in poor weather.
When the Falcons drafted Julio Jones they wanted to make their offense more explosive. Down the stretch he has definitely done that and needs to show up here for the Falcons to get it done. Over the past five weeks Jones has caught just 20 balls, but has taken those passes for 393 yards for a 19.7-yard average and 6 touchdowns. Those are exciting numbers unless you consider they were playing three awful teams (Carolina, Jacksonville, Tampa Bay) and lost the fourth (New Orleans) in blowout fashion.
Atlanta's offense also has Roddy White who caught 100 passes and veteran tight end Tony Gonzalez who is desperate to end his career with at least a playoff victory if not a Super Bowl appearance. People counted out Gonzo because he is almost 36 years old. All he did was catch 80 passes for the seventh time in his career. He went over 800 yards (875) for the eleventh time and had at least five touchdowns (7) for the twelfth time. His heart and soul will be in this game.
I do think home field plays a big part here, but the Giants are only 5-4 here including a "road" win over the Jets. The Falcons are a decent 4-4 outside their dome, but only 2-3 when throwing out the domes they visited. In tough games Atlanta was swept by New Orleans, lost to Green Bay at home and won in Detroit. New York lost in San Francisco and New Orleans, and also to Green Bay at home in a thriller while also winning in New England. Their season has been marred by puzzling home losses to Seattle early and Washington (who swept them) late. I'm not too concerned by their four-game swoon as the second half of the season started because all of those were competitive teams. They got straight when they needed to.
This should be an old school physical game. The Giants are the worst rushing team in the league, but that is deceiving. They are sixth in rushing touchdowns (17) and scoring wins games. They have also lost just one fumble and turnover ratio wins games too. The Falcons are only average on the ground although they also can run it in (14 scores). Defensively Atlanta has been tough to run on giving up just 97 yards a game while the Giants have been much more generous. Playoff football tends to throw those numbers out the window though in a setting like this.
Speaking of throwing, Eli Manning barely missed joining the 5K club and had a reasonable interception total (16) as the Giants allowed 28 sacks. Matt Ryan had nearly identical marks in touchdowns (also 29) and picks (13) while the Falcons took 26 sacks. Yardage was the only edge as Ryan threw for about 35 fewer yards per game. Pass rush and venue really make it hard for Ryan to win this matchup. New York did allow 4,082 passing yards, but they also had 20 interceptions and 48 sacks. Atlanta was right there in yards (3,786) and picks (19) but can't keep up in the sacks department (33). Those are drive killers and in effect a poor man's turnover. I like Eli throwing to the white-hot Victor Cruz here and the embattled backfield of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs going off: NY Giants 24, Atlanta 20 (NYG -3/under 47.5)
Pittsburgh (12-4) @ Denver (8-8): No one is really giving the Broncos a chance here. Tebow Time might be a thing of the past. Last week he lost a close game for the first time, having been routed 45-10, 41-23 and 40-14 in his previous failed starts. Two of those came at home where the Broncos are just 3-5 this year. Denver has only played four playoff teams this year. They beat Cincinnati 24-22 in week 2 and lost in Green Bay two weeks after that when Kyle Orton was starting. Under Tebow they lost big on this field to Detroit (45-10) and New England (41-23). They were able to hold down a lot of inept offenses in the second half of the season. The Steelers might be fairly one-dimensional without Rashard Mendenhall, but they are not inept.
Pittsburgh's offense has, however, struggled to score down the stretch. In four of their final six games they failed to top 14 points. However, in those games only San Francisco hit double digits against their defense. Only Baltimore (twice) has scored more than 20 points against them this year. That's pretty good. The offense has hit 20 only nine times though. In five of their games neither team hit 20 and the Steelers were 4-1 in those games including a 17-10 loss in Houston. If you're thinking close games favor Tebow Time, the Steelers are 6-2 in games decided by a single score. The Broncos were 1-3 in close games before Tebow took over in Miami and are 6-1 since.
We know the Broncos love to run the ball. Thanks to the option and Willis McGahee they lead the NFL in yards per game, but most of the league has more rushing touchdowns than their 11, including the Steelers. On defense Pittsburgh is obviously stout, holding teams just below the century mark per game. Denver is softer, but they face a Steelers offense that just lost Rashard Mendenhall and has Big Ben hobbling on a bum ankle.
Turnovers are the equalizer here and while Roethlisberger does have 19 almost half of those (9) came in the opener at Baltimore and on MNF when he was obviously hurt in San Francisco. Those are elite defenses and division champion team. Sacks are another factor. Pittsburgh has given up 42 and the Broncos have 41. If Denver can get three sacks to put their offense back on the field and help their field position cause this could get interesting.
Ultimately, we know Tebow is not going to challenge this defense down the field even though safety Ryan Clark (medical concerns) being out hurts Pittsburgh's secondary. He has been praised for protecting the football, but has lost a fumble in five straight games. He has also thrown 5 interceptions in the past four games when forced to throw the ball more than 20 times per game. If he turns it over twice they are sunk and I believe he will.
The Denver defense is going to be fired up and could force Roethlisberger into turnovers or even put him out of the game. However, this is a playoff tested roster. Even if the offense line is horrific somehow they get it done. All it takes is a few deep plays to their speedy receiving options and the defense takes over. I look for a pretty boring game that the Steelers are lucky to get over with. It's not going to be a Super run for them though. Turnover are going to create some scoring: Pittsburgh 20, Denver 16 (DEN +9/over 33.5)
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