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Sunday, April 22 2018

NFL Predictions 2013: Week 1 (plus season picks)

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Before we get to the picks for the first week of games, I’m going to do something a little different and reveal my picks for all the games. Every year I like to circle winners for every game based on my first impression, without too much grinding. I find the results interesting, and you might too. It helps me to navigate the early season.

The NFC West is going to be a two-team race, or is it? San Francisco (13-3) is a better regular season team than Seattle (11-5) because Percy Harvin will be out early in the year. Don’t rule out St. Louis (7-9) and Arizona (4-12) from spoiling someone’s day, inside or outside of this division, at some point. 

I’ll take chalk in the NFC South with Atlanta (11-5) making history as the first ever to repeat, slipping past a competitive field of contenders. New Orleans (9-7) might still need more defense, Tampa Bay (8-8) is too inconsistent and Carolina (7-9) lacks the offensive options. 

There is a pattern in the NFC and it repeats in the North where I see Green Bay (9-7) by the slimmest of margins. I came up with 8-8 for all the other teams. Minnesota’s quarterback limits their ceiling, Chicago’s new offense might not take off right away and Detroit feels like a team that can beat anyone or lose to anyone. 

The NFC East is a fight from top to bottom I believe. New York (10-6) seems to spike up when everyone thinks they are down, and with David Wilson taking over the rushing duties their offense could be special assuming the receivers stay on the field. Dallas (10-6) might finally put some of the pieces together this year although this pick makes me nervous. If I re-did the picks they are one team I might take wins from. Washington (9-7) didn’t do enough to improve and in this league that means going backwards. Philadelphia (8-8) will ruin more Sundays than most people think.

In the NFC playoffs I have the 49ers and Falcons on a bye week with the Giants beating the Cowboys and the Seahawks upsetting the Packers in the first round. In the divisional round I’m taking those pesky Seahawks again over the hated 49ers for the upset while the Falcons dispose of the Giants. In a playoff rematch of a classic at the Georgia Dome, this time the Seahawks don’t fall asleep in the early going and they win the NFC title.

Obviously I am going with Denver (12-4) in the AFC West. Kansas City (7-9) could prove me wrong by winning more, but I think it’s too soon. Oakland (6-10) has more talent than people realize and will profit from an easy slate. San Diego (2-14) has a really tough schedule and while that win total seems ridiculously low, I went on my instinct and that’s what I came up with.

In the AFC South I like Houston (13-3) on both sides of the ball quite a bit. Indianapolis (8-8) virtually loses their head coach and no one seems to care, in addition to losing the element of surprise. Jacksonville (4-12) and Tennessee (4-12) are still both lacking sorely in talent, notably at quarterback in a league driven by them.

I am happy with Cincinnati (11-5) in the AFC North, they are ready to seize the moment. Baltimore (11-5) is going to take a few weeks to get rolling before they essentially become the same dangerous team that won it all. Pittsburgh (8-8) is missing something and I can’t quite put my finger on it. Cleveland (6-10) will register some unexpected wins, but they are too young to make a run.

As for the AFC East, New England (11-5) is not ready to go away just yet and I don’t care who is on the other end of Tom Brady’s passes. Miami (8-8) is almost ready for a serious run, and might prove me wrong. Buffalo (3-13) quite possible picks up a few more wins than this, but unlike the 2012 rookie class I don’t like their chances with a first-year signal caller. New York (2-14) is a disaster.

In the AFC playoffs I’m giving the Texans and Broncos the bye weeks. The Patriots take out the Colts while the Ravens upset the Bengals in the opening round games. The Texans get past the Ravens in a result I just changed (shame on me!) because I realized how much I like them, while the Broncos dust off the Patriots. In what could be his last ride I am taking Peyton Manning’s Broncos in the upset over the Texans to win the AFC. My Super Bowl pick is the same as it was a week after the 49ers lost to the Ravens – Seattle over Denver.

Baltimore @ Denver: I try not to overthink early season games. The Ravens have a potentially nasty pass rush with ex-Bronco Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs teaming up. They also have to deal with a lot of turnover in their starting lineup. Early on those changes are going to be difficult. The Broncos gave Peyton Manning toys on offense in the form of a rookie running back (Montee Ball) and a reception machine at wide receiver (Wes Welker). That’s like giving prime location real estate to Donald Trump.

There is definitely a revenge factor here after Rahim Moore choked away Denver’s season. Baltimore is a rebuilt force and I’m not dismissing their chances here by any stretch of the imagination. They are playing as underdogs coming off a title and that’s rare. The lack of offensive options is going to hurt them here, especially aerial threats to attack the weak secondary of their opposition. It’s a close one, but ultimately I like the home team: Denver 24, Baltimore 20 (BAL +8/under 49.5)

Oakland @ Indianapolis: The Raiders are in rebuilding mode, as in from the ground up. Unfortunately for them, they have not made all the right moves in the draft and free agency to overhaul their roster enough to field a competitive team this season. The Colts were in a similar mode last year, but they had the benefit of better decisions and of course rookie quarterback Andrew Luck.

Here it’s just a matter of how much Indy wins by. They aren’t as good as last year’s playoff appearance might indicate so I’m not sure this is a runaway blowout as some suspect. Oakland has some hungry players ready to prove everyone wrong, and early in the season anything goes. Terrelle Pryor will be running for his life, but he also might be running down the field for huge chunks of yardage as well. Darren McFadden is healthy at the moment and awfully dangerous out of the backfield in a dome: Indianapolis 28, Oakland 17 (IND-10/under 47)

Tennessee @ Pittsburgh: No one is talking about the Steelers as contenders and they probably like it that way. They might even be able to sneak up on a team or two. The Titans are in need of a quarterback and in this league that’s a tough spot to be in, especially on the road at Heinz Field. I know Pittsburgh has lost a step, but Tennessee never had a step to lose.

The Steelers will need some time to get their offense rolling, so the opener probably is going to be on the low scoring end of the spectrum. The Titans have to rely on big plays and limiting mistakes. Unfortunately for them, the home team is focused on getting back to creating turnovers and that will be their undoing here: Pittsburgh 24, Tennessee 16 (PIT -7/under 42.5)

New England @ Buffalo: Apparently rookie E.J. Manuel is going to start after all. I actually like the surprise first-round pick and eventually they will be glad to have him. Right out of the gate against a championship-caliber team it probably will not look that way. However, this is a rivalry game and one that has produced bizarre results in recent seasons. 

Tom Brady has an entirely new cast of receiving options, but throughout his career he has thrived even with mediocre players at his disposal. I’m not worried about the offense. C.J. Spiller is a threat to take over this game. I just can’t see him matching scoring drives with Brady when it comes down to the end: New England 31, Buffalo 23 (BUF +11/over 51)

Atlanta @ New Orleans: I’m actually surprised how many people think the Saints are going to march out of this opener with a win. Their defense is horrific, and last I checked the Falcons were a whisper away from the Super Bowl with a dynamic offense that added Steven Jackson to the backfield. I can’t picture them being slowed down in this game barring turnovers.

Drew Brees has his head coach Sean Payton back, but he can’t play both sides of the ball. It’s awesome to have home field and I’m not overlooking that advantage. I am going with the team that can play defense to come up with the extra stop or two, even just holding the Saints to field goals, that makes the difference: Atlanta 35, New Orleans 31 (ATL +3/over 54)

Tampa Bay @ NY Jets: No one gives the Jets a chance in this game, and I think they are right. This is a sinking ship and the Bucs come in ready to bomb them. Greg Schiano returns to Jersey with a team that always does its best work early on. Their quarterback is established and their running back is coming off a monster rookie campaign.

Defensively I do think New York can keep this close, but Tampa Bay has taken Revis Island from them and in the process really improved their secondary. No chance the Jets can consistently threaten them down the field, and that means they can devote resources up front to stopping the run. I will roll with the visitors: Tampa Bay 20, NY Jets 13 (TB -3/under 40)

Kansas City @ Jacksonville: The Chiefs had 6 Pro Bowl players last year and stunk. Now they have a viable quarterback in Alex Smith and a head coach in Andy Reid who knows how to win. They are candidates to turn things around in a hurry, similar to what the Colts did last year. The Jaguars are a mess, and it will take time for them to become a factor. Like their division mates in Tennessee, they need a quarterback.

On defense I like both sides, and both will be tasked with stopping a stud running back. Maurice Jones-Drew has something to prove this season while Jamaal Charles is looking to establish himself among the elite at the position. The offenses will lean on the running games and hope not to make too many mistakes. As usual, I am taking the better quarterback even in a tough Florida road game in September because their roster is more talented: Kansas City 19, Jacksonville 14 (KC -4/under 42.5)

Seattle @ Carolina: If the Seahawks try to roll their helmets out and think they are going to walk all over the Panthers this could get ugly. Carolina has a nasty defense and Cam Newton at the controls of an offense that is capable of making a play or two. In what figures to be a serious defensive struggle, a long touchdown might be the difference.

Traveling across the country is always difficult although Seattle has proven they can handle it. Not all of their parts are functioning yet, so this is the time to catch them. However, their backfield is more complete and they have the winning roster. The Panthers are just hoping to compete this season. The Seahawks know they can get to the Super Bowl: Seattle 20, Carolina 16 (SEA -3.5/under 45)

Miami @ Cleveland: This is a tough call. The Browns are a feisty bunch with a young offense that could really cause problems if they stay healthy and develop as expected. The Dolphins are potentially really good defensively, but their offense now has to hope Lamar Miller can carry the running game while Ryan Tannehill continues to make do without a ton of help at wide receiver in terms of depth.

I do like the visitors here because I think they feel as if a surprise division title is attainable with the Patriots having issues. The Browns must know, even in week 1 that they are a long shot. Maybe in their youth they will play above their heads and make an early push, but I’m not a fan of Brandon Weeden and I’m taking the better defense here: Miami 21, Cleveland 17 (MIA +1/under 41)

Minnesota @ Detroit: The Lions are in great shape to bounce back after a season they would like to forget. Now that Reggie Bush has effectively replaced Jahvid Best, their offense can fire on all cylinders again. Their defensive front is potentially lights out. The Vikings of course have Adrian Peterson who carried them to the playoffs, but Christian Ponder is somewhat limited and without dynamic targets the passing game is flat.

All of AD’s talk about 2,500 yards should die down quickly if this game goes as I expect it to. Detroit’s offense does not have to be all about Calvin Johnson now, and if teams double him up as expected it will open up space for Matthew Stafford to distribute the ball at will. I like them to take this one comfortably: Detroit 28, Minnesota 20 (DET -5/over 46.5)

Cincinnati @ Chicago: No one will talk about this game, but it should be a good one between two contenders. The Bears have a new offensive feel with head coach Marc Trestman opening things up and second-year wide receiver Alshon Jeffery ready to thrive. Yes, their offensive line is still leaky, but scheme and multiple threats at the skill positions can mask those deficiencies.

I love the Bengals this season. Left tackle Andrew Whitworth might not play here though, and with Julius Peppers around that’s a problem. Chicago has the home field and the defense to disrupt Cincinnati’s young, upstart offense. I can make a case for either team actually. Jay Cutler is always a risk to throw 4 interceptions and blow the game. I’m counting on him not doing that, and instead engineering one last drive to win the game: Chicago 24, Cincinnati 23 (CIN +3/over 41.5)

Arizona @ St. Louis: No one should sleep on either of these NFC West “also-rans”. The Rams have a great defensive line and showed what they can do last year in two games against the 49ers. The Cardinals are viable on defense and now have a gunslinger at quarterback in Carson Palmer. His task is to limit turnovers.

Sam Bradford has a new toy in Tavon Austin, but also has to see what the new backfield can produce now that Steven Jackson is gone. Both offenses are in transition and the dome field advantage is definitely a factor in my decision because I think these teams are fairly close: St. Louis 23, Arizona 20 (AZ +4.5/over 41.5)

Green Bay @ San Francisco: Jim Harbaugh is worried that teams will “target” Colin Kaepernick, but that’s not what will happen. If by “target” he means “hit” then yes that is exactly what is going to occur. When a quarterback is in that gimmick read-option offense they can be knocked on their ass as long as they are acting like a rusher. It’s part of the rules and something teams are going to take advantage of defensively to possibly knock the opposing quarterback out of the game. This is still football.

Aaron Rodgers doesn’t have to rely on gimmicks and while he did lose a couple receivers when Greg Jennings (Vikings) and Donald Driver (retired) left he has a healthy Jordy Nelson to go along with James Jones and Randall Cobb. Those are three stud receivers plus Jermichael Finley at tight end. He also finally has a viable lead rusher in rookie Eddie Lacy. The 49ers are mostly a running team at this point because their only receiving options are Vernon Davis and newly acquired Anquan Boldin. If those guys are locked up, the Packers win. I think they could, but I like the home team’s defense too much: San Francisco 24, Green Bay 21 (GB +4.5/under 49)

NY Giants @ Dallas: This is a great rivalry, but I’m a little sick of it. The Cowboys haven’t won enough lately for it to mean as much as it should. Maybe this is the year they change all that. The Giants are ready to bounce back, and it starts with David Wilson not fumbling the ball as he did in the season opener last year. Now head coach Tom Coughlin has to stick with him though.

Tony Romo has weapons down the field and as long as DeMarco Murray is healthy his offense is going to be just fine. Eli Manning has great receiving options if they can stay out of the training room. This actually could be a shootout. I can flip a coin really because there is no home field advantage in this rivalry. I favor New York’s defense to squeeze it out: NY Giants 28, Dallas 27 (NYG +3.5/over 49)

Philadelphia @ Washington: Most people think this is going to be a rout, especially with Robert Griffin III able to start. I see the Eagles as a team with nothing to lose, ready to play loose and make some opponents miserable. The Redskins really aren’t improved over last season, and in this league that means they are worse.

However, the Eagles are miserable on defense while the Redskins are not. There are going to be some anxious moments if Philly’s crazy new offense creates big plays as it probably will, but Washington has a steady, balanced attack that will wear them out in the end: Washington 31, Philadelphia 17 (WAS -3/under 52)

Houston @ San Diego: The Chargers get their chance to host the nightcap of the MNF doubleheader, but they draw a killer opponent in the Texans. Houston is the forgotten contender and with all the talk about Arian Fosters’s health no one seems to remember they have a nasty defense and plenty of offense even without Foster on the field.

I see this as a potentially disastrous season for San Diego. They might even go in the tank so much that they draw the first pick and trade Philip Rivers knowing they can draft Teddy Bridgewater. I look at their offense and I feel as if way too much pressure is on Rivers without enough help. Matt Schaub isn’t a “killer” at quarterback and probably isn’t going to bring them a Super Bowl, but he’s fine in the regular season as he will show here: Houston 34, San Diego 14 (HOU -3.5/over 44)

NFL Predictions 2013: Week 1 (plus season picks) | 55 comments | Create New Account
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NFL Predictions 2013: Week 1 (plus season picks)
Authored by: dbsmall onThursday, September 05 2013

I'm not as detailed as Norcalfella, but here are my straight-up picks for the week:

 

DEN
 
NE
PIT
TB
NO
KC
SEA
CHI
CLE
MIN
IND
ARI
SF
NYG
 
WAS
HOU

 

Some of you are probably saying...wait, what?  Arizona over St. Louis?  Minnesota over Detroit?  Yes.  And Yes.

For ARI vs. STL, I always take experience and guile over youth and exuberance.  I'm no Carson Palmer fan (though Alexander is exciting), but he's been around the block.  By contrast, I expect a lot of flash from some of STL's offense, but I don't expect consistent play through more than 3 quarters.

For MIN vs. DET, you have to realize that both teams are struggling with QB inconsistency.  That means the ground is where it's at.  All. Day.  (And Calvin Johnson will be a non-issue.)

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