My thoughts on who will be heading to Detroit and who is heading to the Toilet. NFC West:

It is an odd year so I must be going with St. Louis (9-7) who has been to two Super Bowls (winning one) and a 12-4 record the last three odd years. I don’t like the secondary issues, but the front part of the defense should be better and with Steven Jackson as the primary back they should run more allowing Bulger to have fewer turnovers. Seattle (9-7) is a team that confounds me. Their defense is terrible other than the secondary, and unless Warrick (WR) revives his career they are thin at receiver. Traveling out of that Pacific Northwest always seems to wear on them with an ugly road loss to a bad team.

Arizona (8-8) is a trendy division winning pick. They will be better, but Warner/McCown is not enough at quarterback and the defense isn’t quite there yet. San Francisco (2-14) is better off with Rattay, but has no receivers so it really doesn’t matter. Hard to know what they can do if they stay healthy though. Last year was a tough one with injuries and other than receiver they really loaded up their offense and made nice additions to the line.

NFC North:

Everyone likes Minnesota (11-5) and the Koren Robinson move probably seals it. Teams will have a tough time choosing who to double up and with so many good running backs it really doesn’t matter who gets the lead role. Fantasy nightmare, but they will roll up a ton of points this season. Detroit (9-7) is probably a little defensive help away from breaking through. Harrington is slowly developing and I think the light bulb goes on for him this season with everything around him.

Green Bay (9-7) is falling into mediocrity. They have a lame duck running back in Ahman Green, ready to retire quarterback, horrible defense and disgruntled top receiver. Giving Sherman an extension will prove to be a big mistake. This is actually a generous finish for them. Chicago (1-15) might be better off with Orton at quarterback in the long run, but for now I don’t see how they can compete offensively with the teams in their division. As losses pile up that #1 pick becomes a reality.

NFC South:

For Atlanta (12-4) last year was a dream season and I like what they have done at receiver promoting Jenkins and drafting Roddy White. Vick is starting to get what it takes to be a passing quarterback and defensively they stand up. Carolina (10-6) is getting Super Bowl love from everyone for their hot finish. I will give them the first wild card because they have three good receivers, a few good although unreliable running backs and a solid defense.

New Orleans (6-10) would have been a contending team before Katrina. I just can’t see how they hold up over the long haul with consistent efforts while playing away from home ever week. Consistency was their problem before this happens and now it is much worse. Tampa Bay (6-10) is shifting their emphasis to offense, which is a good thing because the defense is starting to fade. If they can be patient with Gruden another season it will pay off. Otherwise I would be glad to have him back in Oakland.

NFC East:

I am taking Philadelphia (14-2) to win this division easily. It says a lot that they are willing to cut Hugh Douglas (DE) and let Corey Simon (DT) walk. They are sold on their defense and with enough whiners on offense don’t want to rock the boat. Dallas (10-6) will get the second wild card. I love the Peerless Price (WR) signing because it reunites him with the man who got him his big contract, Drew Bledsoe. They needed another threat to go with possession receiver Keyshawn and over the middle tight end Witten. The defense is revamped and ready with acquisitions and draft picks for a 2003 renaissance.

Washington (6-10) plays great defense, but still can’t settle on a quarterback and went with small receivers after trading their two best ones (Coles and Gardner) while acquiring Santana Moss and Patten. The line is healthier and more talented this season to block for Portis, but will he ever see a normal front? New York (3-13) is in the mode of building slowly. Eli Manning is not his brother, and even with Burress replacing Hilliard the receivers are not great. Barber makes the offense, but the defense is falling apart so badly that it won’t matter.

AFC West:

Only one team was in the top 10 in yardage on both sides of the ball and it was Denver (10-6). I know prognosticators are taking all four teams to win this division, and for my money rushing and defense wins it. They improved their defense and still have plenty of running backs. Oakland (9-7) is not going to win 38-35 like everyone thinks. Their defense is going to be the comeback story of this season as they move back to the 4-3 a year too late. It will be more like 27-24 wins for a team that will battle for a wild card and lose out.

San Diego (7-9) got a lot of breaks last year. With the target on them and pressure on Brees to repeat it will blow up in their face. They got their first bad bounce with Gates having to miss the opener. Kansas City (7-9) still has no defense and the additions were a waste of money. The offense is worse off without Morton and the mystery surrounding Trent Green worries me.

AFC North

It won’t be another dream campaign but Pittsburgh (11-5) still has enough to win this division. Willie Parker might give them a better chance than Staley or Bettis anyway. Big Ben will struggle with interceptions if they force him to throw more, but that just brings them to a division champ level from their #1 seed perch. Baltimore (10-6) is going to get the second wild card even with Boller at quarterback. Lewis is ready to rumble and with Mason and rookie Mark Clayton added at receiver they might move the ball once in a while. Their secondary is possibly the best ever assembled.

Cincinnati (8-8) is a team waiting to break through and unfortunately they are stuck with two good teams right now. If it was the old 3x5 format and they had another poor team they might have a better shot at a wild card. As it is the offense can’t score enough to overcome the poor defense. Cleveland (2-14) is a disaster. They need help at just about every position and Crennel better pack his Pepto Bismol.

AFC South:

The clear pick is Indianapolis (14-2) and the Corey Simon addition makes them a safe bet as the top seed. Their defense will be a lot better and the offense is intact. Jacksonville (9-7) will rely on defense, hoping that Taylor stays healthy and young receivers to get by. It is a dicey recipe for them which is why I don’t agree with people giving them a wild card.

Houston (8-8) needs some defensive help and a better offensive line. Jerome Mathis (WR) will surprise some people as a rookie and Carr is steadily improving, but they are a very unspectacular team. Tennessee (3-13) just can’t compete with all the players they have lost. Young guys might come in and play well, but they are not a deep enough team to win more than a few games.

AFC East:

It is time for a change and New York (11-5) turns it in. I love the new kicking tandem of rookie Mike Nugent (Ohio State) and punter Ben Graham (Australia rules football). Those were savvy moves for a team that already has a great defense bolstered by Ty Law and a good running game. Coles reunites with Pennington and even if he goes down Fiedler has shown he can be a caretaker at quarterback. New England (11-5) has lost their touch. Lots of questionable moves, both coordinators exit, three good linebackers are out and I could go on. They still have a championship core which is why they take the first wild card and defend in the playoffs.

Buffalo (7-9) is ready to take a step back with Losman at quarterback. McGahee could be a little overrated at this point, and while the defense is good there are questions. Overall I get a bad vibe about this team in 2005. Miami (3-13) has made some smart moves, but it is a rebuilding process. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown could be a nice backfield and Booker, Boston and Chambers with McMichael at tight end looks great on paper. Games are on the field though and Frerotte is still the quarterback. With the right rookie (read: Leinart) they might surge next season.

PLAYOFFS:

In the NFC opening round #3 Minnesota hosts #6 Dallas and puts them away. #5 Carolina will “upset” #4 St. Louis. Top seed Philadelphia has enough to put down Carolina in what should be a good game and #2 Atlanta will use experience to end Minnesota’s season. In the title game replay Philadelphia beats Atlanta.

In the AFC opening round #3 Pittsburgh will beat division rival #6 Baltimore. #4 Denver will need more than home field and lose to #5 New England. Top seed Indianapolis will gain revenge on New England in a wipeout. #2 New York will also gain revenge on Pittsburgh as both divisional games repeat in different venues. Indianapolis will take out New York in the title game.

SUPER BOWL PICK:

I am hedging my bets here. Initially I felt like Philadelphia would have enough defense to beat Indianapolis, but after the Simon signing and given how motivated he will be to beat the team that cut him lose I believe the Colts edge the Eagles 27-24.