Let’s go bowling! All the picks are now in. NEW ORLEANS BOWL: Southern Mississippi (6-5) vs. North Texas (7-4): pick SM -6/under 54

I think in a way it is fitting to pit the team that cost Cal the Rose Bowl by playing them close in a 26-16 loss (Southern Miss) against the one that lost to BCS bound Texas 65-0 to open the season. North Texas went on to get hammered by three more teams including the Big 12’s worst team Baylor (37-14) before sliding through the Sun Belt season a perfect 7-0. When I say sliding, I mean it because four of those wins over bad teams came by 10 points or less, and they didn’t even play possibly the best team in the conference in Troy State. When Texas laid that whooping on the Eagles to open the season, I don’t think anyone anticipated that the #6 and #7 yard producing rushers would come out of that game, but Benson finished just 55 yards ahead of Jamario Thomas who played in just 9 games and led the nation with 189.9 yards per game, falling one touchdown short of averaging 2 per game, also tops in the nation. When you have a player like that, you can compete. For Southern Miss, the big comparison has to be the fact that in their game against a Big 12 team they dumped Nebraska 21-17 on the road. However, after a 5-1 start they began to struggle both on offense and defense while losing four of their final five games. During that stretch they put up 21.8 points and allowed 34.2 per contest. UAB was the only good team from Conference USA that they beat, and eventual champ Louisville was not on the schedule, but clearly this is a better bunch of teams than what the Sun Belt has to offer. Something tells me that North Texas will stay close with Thomas rushing, but eventually the team that just tested #4 Cal has to prevail with relative ease. It also helps that this game is being played essentially in their backyard: Southern Mississippi 28, North Texas 13

CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL: Syracuse (6-5) vs. Georgia Tech (6-5): pick SYR +5/over 43.5

I guess there wasn’t a tangerine manufacturer willing to sponsor this bowl, and it would be odd having the Orangemen in the Tangerine Bowl anyway, right? This is basically a meeting of two teams that play obligatory bowls because they finished with a winning record. Syracuse played in a terrible Big East conference and their wins over #19 Pittsburgh (38-31) and #25 Boston College (43-17) don’t mean that much to me because I wouldn’t rank either team if I was voting. We are talking about a club that just lost to otherwise 1-9 Temple, and opened the season in Purdue with a 51-0 shellacking. Perhaps their only shining moment was testing #17 Florida State before falling 17-13. As for Georgia Tech, they lost to all four teams that finished ahead of them in the ACC and it wasn’t close with a 19.8 point margin. They didn’t even have to play Florida State, which leaves Connecticut as the common opponent. Syracuse battled past them 42-30 while Georgia Tech squashed them 30-10. I don’t think this is a statement of how good the ACC is because four teams in the top 18 is ridiculous, but more so how bad the Big East is. The Florida crowd is behind them and they squeeze out a win, no pun intended: Georgia Tech 24, Syracuse 20

GMAC BOWL: Bowling Green (8-3) vs. Memphis (8-3): pick MEM +4/under 72

I think Bowling Green got on the map by relatively staying with #2 Oklahoma for at least part of their game to open the season before falling 40-24, although they did trail 37-10 after three quarters it was a 24-10 contest at the half. Only once more during the season would they fail to post 38 points, averaging a hefty 43.6 overall. An early 34-17 loss at a tough Northern Illinois team and 49-41 loss to close the season against eventual MAC champ Toledo are their only other defeats. Their quarterback Omar Jacobs has 36 touchdowns and incredibly just 3 interceptions on the season while throwing for 330.6 yards per contest. Memphis counters with a pretty good offense of their own, and one that put up 28+ points in all but two games. They also tested #7 Louisville before losing 56-49 in a game where they gave up the lead 4 times. Their lead rusher DeAngelo Williams was #3 in rushing with 1,828 yards and led the nation with 21 touchdowns. I guess this boils down to Bowling Green throwing the ball down the field while Memphis tries to run them over. Personally, I think a good running game is a safer bet, and while I can appreciate that Jacobs doesn’t throw a lot of picks, he might have a couple in this one. Again I stick with the team playing closer to home: Memphis 31, Bowling Green 27

FORT WORTH BOWL: Marshall (6-5) vs. Cincinnati (6-5): pick MAR +1.5/under 56

I think Marshall has a pretty good reputation by now after Pennington, Moss and now Leftwich are stars in the NFL. They got off to a tough start with 3 losses, but all of those teams are in bowl games and #24 Ohio State (24-21 loss) and #8 Georgia (13-3 loss) game on the road against ranked clubs. However, with the season on the line they lost at Akron and at Bowling Green to fall out of contention for the MAC title. Cincinnati also lost at Ohio State, but they were wiped out 27-6. Both teams beat Miami, Ohio at home although Cincinnati’s margin (45-26) was much more impressive than Marshall’s (33-25). The big eye opener for the Bearcats was their finale, a 70-7 loss at #7 Louisville in a game where they allowed 366 yards rushing. That has to hurt them psychologically and we are also talking about a team that lost at an Army squad (48-29) that only won one other game. I think Marshall is a more consistent scoring team and can wear down Cincinnati with consistently long drives: Marshall 27, Cincinnati 23

LAS VEGAS BOWL: UCLA (6-5) vs. Wyoming (6-5): pick UCLA -12/under 58

The Pac-10 beat each other up quite a bit this season, leaving 5-6 clubs Oregon and Washington State out of the mix in favor of less talented bowl eligible squads. That means every game is crucial for their reputation as a conference starting here. The final mark shows the Bruins at 4-4 in conference, but they lost a barnburner at Arizona State (48-42) after blowing an 11 point lead, were stung by Washington State (31-29) when they failed on a two point play that would have forced overtime and played #1 USC (29-24) very tough. These guys weren’t far off from being 8-3 or even 9-2 with a few plays going their way. They are also a scoring team, averaging 30.9 for the season and never being held under 20. Wyoming stumbled through the weak Mountain West at 3-4, and their only measurable win for 37-32 over Mississippi, who went 3-5 in a rough SEC. Along the way they beat San Diego State 20-10, giving them a common opponent to UCLA, who whooped the Aztecs 33-10. Their leading rusher has 5 touchdowns and their quarterback has 10 TD passes. Four times they have failed to score over 13 points, but five times they have allowed 30. I don’t see how they have the defense to stop UCLA or the offense to score with them. This one is in Las Vegas, so clearly the Bruins have the home field as well: UCLA 38, Wyoming 15

HAWAII BOWL: Hawaii (7-5) vs. UAB (7-4): pick HAW -3.5/under 76

For a team that lost to I-AA Florida Atlantic (35-28) at home to open the season, then at otherwise 2-8 Rice (41-29) and later were bushwhacked at Boise State (69-3) and at Fresno State (70-14) this Hawaii team got into a bowl the right way. That’s because they beat a pair of Big-10 teams (Northwestern 49-41, Michigan State 41-38) who combined to go 9-7 in conference. This is the final game for career passing yardage leader Timmy Chang, and all 7 times they have scored 34 points this season it has been a win. Now they draw a UAB team that went 2-2 against bowl bound teams and has a 35-28 win over 8-3 Memphis. However, their offense has been very sluggish over the past four games, scoring either 20 or 21 in all of them and going 2-2 even while facing three teams in the bottom half of Conference USA. Chang is not going to blow this game in front of his home fans, and UAB is the perfect opponent for him to beat up on: Hawaii 42, UAB 24

MPC COMPUTERS: #18 Virginia (8-3) vs. Fresno State (8-3): pick VIR -6/under 52

Well there is nothing Humanitarian about this bowl anymore. Early in the year Fresno State gained a lot of respect with wins at Washington (35-16) and at Kansas State (35-21). Then the Huskies went 0-8 in the Pac-10 and the Wildcats went 2-6 in the weak Big 12 North, which explains their three game slide culminating in a loss to grossly overrated #10 Boise State (33-16) on the road. At that point, however, they buzzed through five straight WAC opponents by an average of 56-16 to gain some momentum and confidence. They come at you with two backs, Sumlin and Mathis, who have combined for a solid 1,879 yards and 25 touchdowns but this is no WAC defense they’ll be facing. The Cavs were #17 in rushing defense at just 108.6 yards per game and have held 7 of their 11 opponents to 16 points or less. All three of their losses have come to teams ranked in the top 17 and their only win by fewer than 20 points was a 16-0 blanking of Maryland, who finished a decent 5-6. This is a complete mismatch from the start. Even the Idaho location favoring the Bulldogs isn’t nearly enough to keep them in this game. The Cavaliers are going to have their way early and often: Virginia 31, Fresno State 12
MOTOR CITY BOWL: Connecticut (7-4) vs. Toledo (9-3): pick TOL -4/under 66.5

Are this really division I teams? Connecticut is here because they beat BCS bound #19 Pittsburgh (29-17) but other than that they beat 4 teams that finished 2-9 and cellar dwelling Rutgers plus Ohio Valley’s Murray State (52-14) who is a joke. Toledo won the better than most people think MAC conference, overcoming a terrible start to the season where they were blown away at Minnesota (63-21) and at Kansas (63-14) who is horrible. After that they kicked the offense into high gear with 31+ points in 8 of their final 10 games, including a 35-27 win over Miami, Ohio in the title game that avenged an earlier 23-16 loss. They give up a lot, but they also score a lot. I will take a top MAC team over a mediocre Big East team any day of the week. That’s what it boils down to: Toledo 30, Connecticut 22

INDEPENDENCE BOWL: Iowa State (6-5) vs. Miami, Ohio (8-4): pick MIA -3/under 51)

Finally a bowl game with at least a semblance of tradition, and without a stupid sponsor even though the teams are weak. Miami skated through a weak MAC East division, losing at Marshall (33-25) and losing to the one solid team they beat (Toledo) in the MAC title game. They also lost road games to bowl bound #13 Michigan (43-10) and Cincinnati (45-26) in convincing fashion. Iowa State beat one of the better MAC teams in Northern Illinois (48-41) but it was close. Their four conference wins were all over teams who finished with a losing record, and they blew a shot at the Big 12 title game by losing 17-14 to a then 4-6 Missouri team. Worse yet, this team has only scored 22 offensive touchdowns all season, half of them coming in 3 games meaning that in their other 8 games they put up only 11 touchdowns on offense. Can they contend with an offensive minded MAC team? They already have once, and late in the year they did manage two of their aforementioned outbursts by scoring 34 and 37 points, but when it mattered most they fell flat. I like a team that scores and Big Ben’s alma mater gets it done: Miami, OH 27, Iowa State 23

INSIGHT BOWL: Notre Dame (6-5) vs. Oregon State (6-5): pick ND +3.5/over 50

The Irish should just join the Pac-10 already. This will be their fourth game against the conference this season and they come in 2-1. The first win was over hapless Washington (38-3) who Oregon State beat on the road 29-14. The other was over Stanford (23-15) also at home and again the Beavers had to beat them on their home field 24-19. We all know they closed the season at #1 USC with a 41-10 loss and who could forget Oregon State losing a tough 28-20 decision to them in the fog. So head to head certainly favors OSU. So does the venue in Pac-10 friendly Phoenix, Arizona. When you add it all up, OSU went 0-5 against ranked opponents and should have opened the season with a win over #12 LSU (22-21 loss) if they didn’t have a crappy kicker. Notre Dame finished 2-3 against ranked teams, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Their 28-20 win over #13 Michigan came early, before the Wolverines caught their stride. They lost to a pair of overrated, very weak Big East teams on their home field, and beat #15 Tennessee (17-13) with the Vols’ third string quarterback at the helm. Without a coach, and far from home I don’t know if the Irish can pull it together against a team that has made a living beating the mediocre opponents on their schedule. It’s close, but I have to back the Pac-10 conference: Oregon State 27, Notre Dame 24

HOUSTON BOWL: UTEP (8-3) vs. Colorado (7-5): pick COL -3/under 59

There isn’t an easy way to compare these teams because they have no common opponents. UTEP went 6-2 in a bad WAC conference and got blitzed at #21 Arizona State (41-9) and against #10 Boise State (47-31). When pollsters ranked them late in the season to justify Boise State’s overblown ranking, they lost to then 3-8 Tulsa 37-35. Yes, they score a lot of points, but against what competition? Their only valued win was 24-21 at bowl bound Fresno State. Meanwhile, the Buffs stumbled through the horrid Big 12 North at 4-4, losing three times by 24+ points including a 42-3 shellacking in the Big 12 title game against #2 Oklahoma. To their credit they did play 6 bowl teams, but the only wins were over Iowa State (19-14) and a weak North Texas (52-21) team from the Sun Belt. They were also very bad on offense with just 25 touchdowns in 12 games, although they did score 30, 38 and 26 leading up to their loss to OU. Still, I think they can do some damage against a weak defense and I see Purify rushing for at least 150 yards in this game as they beat these guys in their own backyard: Colorado 31, UTEP 25

ALAMO BOWL: Oklahoma State (7-4) vs. #24 Ohio State (7-4): pick OKST +2/under 49.5

It’s a battle of the OSU’s. The Cowboys went 3-4 against bowl teams, but were 0-4 against ranked opponents and their last quality win put them at 5-0. Since then they are 2-4 and the only good thing they have done is go up 28 on #6 Texas before losing 56-35. They can really score and the question is whether or not they can get over on a Buckeyes defense that allowed only 24 touchdowns in 11 games. Ohio State went 3-3 against bowl teams, and closed the season with a win over #13 Michigan 37-21. Their only problem has been scoring with just 22 offensive touchdowns, but in their final 5 games they scored 27.4 points on average. It is difficult for me to imagine Oklahoma State’s athletic quarterback Woods and solid runner Morency not being able to do some damage against this defense, and Ohio State really doesn’t have matching talent on their offense. Combined with a little Texas home cooking from the refs, I smell a bit of an upset in this one and now that the Buckeyes lose their starting QB to suspension I will make it a wider than 24-23 margin: Oklahoma State 27, Ohio State 17

CONTINENTAL TIRE: #25 Boston College (8-3) vs. North Carolina (6-5): pick UNC -3/under 51.5

This is another joke of a bowl because BC shouldn’t in a million years be ranked. They beat a lot of really bad teams like Ball State, Massachusetts, Rutgers, Penn State and Temple. It was nice to win at Notre Dame (24-23) and at West Virginia (36-17) but when it mattered most they got clobbered at home by Syracuse (43-17). What was even more shocking about that loss was that up until that game they had given up only 15 touchdowns in 10 games and held 8 of 10 teams to 17 points or less. North Carolina had to play 7 bowl teams this year, and went 2-5 in those games. Of those opponents, six were ranked and they did manage a 31-28 win over #14 Miami, Florida. However, the eye popping games for me were the opener against William & Mary in which they trailed 31-21 in the third quarter before winning 49-38 and ugly 31-24 win at Wake Forest, who finished 1-7 in the ACC. This might be a game deciding which team is worse. North Carolina was also blown away by 34, 22 and 30 against good teams although at least they played a few because BC played none. This is a home game for the Tar Heels in Charlotte and I expect them to play over their heads and win: North Carolina 23, Boston College 19

EMERALD BOWL: New Mexico (7-4) vs. Navy (9-2): pick NM -2/over 40.5

Navy was the little team that could this season, winning four times by 4 points or less. They also picked on a lot of bad teams although they did knock Air Force out of a bowl game by beating them 24-21. That same team beat New Mexico 28-23 a week later. The Lobos are a team that lives by the rush and dies by the pass while living on defense and dying on offense. Scoring 23 touchdowns is a poor showing, but allowing 23 is great. Meanwhile they pass for a solid 175 yards per game, but only two teams have passed for fewer yards. One is Rice, who leads the nation in rushing average (306.5) while the other is none other than Navy who at 97.1 is even lower than the 111.1 for New Mexico. Of course, the Midshipmen back it up with a punishing ground attack that comes in at 291.4 yards per game. Eckel and Polanco combined for 1,906 yards rushing and 24 touchdowns although it did take them 431 carries (4.42 average) to get there and for college that isn’t a great average. This game obviously comes down to which team can flex their muscles on the ground, and it is hard to ignore the statistics. They show that New Mexico allows only 93.6 yards per game on the ground and since Navy can’t hurt them in the air, they will sink into the San Francisco Bay: New Mexico 28, Navy 19

HOLIDAY BOWL: #23 Texas Tech (7-4) vs. #4 California (10-1): pick CAL -11.5/under 65.5

This is a perfect example of why the BCS and more importantly bowl tie-ins don’t work. Cal walked all over nine times this season, stumbled a bit against a 5-6 Oregon team (28-27 win) in a game where Rodgers missed on two sure touchdown throws during drives that ended in a punt, and lost only to #1 USC (23-17) when they fell 9 yards short of a game winning touchdown. You could say they came a terrible call away from beating bowl bound Southern Miss 33-16 on the road, and those 7 points possibly cost them the Rose Bowl. It would be easy to show you why Cal is more deserving of that BCS spot, but a crappy Texas team got it so what is the point? As it is, Cal went 4-1 against bowl teams and beat two others (Air Force and New Mexico State) soundly who finished barely ineligible at 5-6. In other words, they weren’t beating up on the sisters of the poor with 8 wins by 17+ points this year. Texas Tech on the other hand finished just 1-4 against bowl competition and the lone win was in the finale over a flailing Oklahoma State team (31-15) that got beaten up badly in the second half of the season. Statistically this is a complete mismatch. Cal is the only team to rank in the top 6 in both scoring offense (37.3, #6) and scoring defense (13.4, #4). They finished #13 in yards allowed, and #5 in yards gained but more importantly they were first among teams in BCS conferences. Just behind them was Texas Tech (482.1) but the Red Raiders give up over 50 yards more than the Bears. Cal has held 8 teams to 16 points or less this season, and pitched two shutouts including one against #21 Arizona State. They won’t have a problem with Texas Tech’s one dimensional offense because they will simply blitz them every other down. On the other hand, Arrington will have a field day against a team that allows 171.5 yards per game on the ground, and Rodgers will pick them apart through the air. The fact that this game takes place is an embarrassment, and the result is a blowout: California 45, Texas Tech 13

SILICON VALLEY CLASSIC BOWL: Northern Illinois (8-3) vs. Troy (7-4): pick NI -1/under 47

Honestly I didn’t know Troy existed until they almost shocked #12 LSU before losing 24-20. They cost Missouri a bowl bid by beating them 24-14, lost a tough 17-7 decision at 6-5 South Carolina who ducked out of their bowl after a post-game fight, and possibly cost Middle Tennessee a shot at a bowl by whacking them 37-17 to close the season. They opened with a 17-15 win at Marshall, who wound up second in the decidedly weaker half of the MAC, that being the East. Northern Illinois didn’t play Marshall and finished tied for the West lead, losing out because their lone conference loss came to fellow 7-1 Toledo (31-17). The Huskies did meet some other bowl bound teams, losing at Maryland (23-20) and at Iowa State (48-41) with their lone big win coming against Bowling Green (34-17). This game is a contrast in styles to be sure. Troy scored only 27 touchdowns, Northern Illinois gave up 28. On the other hand, Troy allowed just 17 touchdowns while Northern Illinois scored 46. So you can expect this game to be decided when Northern Illinois has the ball. I like how competitive Troy has been all season and it is tough to bank against a team that hasn’t allowed over 24 points the entire season with an average of 15.1, but I like Wolfe to control this game on the ground and wear them down: Northern Illinois 23, Troy 17

MUSIC CITY BOWL: Alabama (6-5) vs. Minnesota (6-5)

The Crimson Tide don’t really deserve to be in this bowl game. Their lone conference wins came against 3 of the worst 4 teams in the SEC, and two of their non-conference wins were over teams that went 2-5 in the obscure Sun Belt and Southern conferences. Their only big win was a 27-3 stomping of a bowl bound Southern Miss team that was playing without their starting quarterback. About the only good thing about this team is that they really bring it on defense, which is why they were able to hang with #3 Auburn to close the season before falling 21-13. They are #10 in scoring defense (15.4) and #2 in yardage (235.9). Minnesota blasted bowl bound Toledo 63-21 to open the season en route to a 5-0 start, but that was their only quality win and they closed with losses in five of their final six games, including a 30-21 defeat at Illinois who was otherwise 0-7 in the Big-10. To their credit they played #11 Iowa tough in the finale before losing 29-27. The Gophers are a team that pretty much wants to outscore you. Five of their final six games they gave up 27+ points though and they finished the year allowing 408.7 yards per game. The offense bailed them out early on with 34+ in thief first four games, but only once after that did they best 27, that being a 45-0 spanking of hapless Illinois. I really don’t see Minnesota beating this defense, although their tough pair of runners (Maroney and Barber) did combine for a hefty 2,325 yards and 22 touchdowns. Then again, Alabama doesn’t have any weapons even to beat a weak defense. It’s a tossup, so I favor the team playing in their region and the one from a stronger conference: Alabama 20, Minnesota 16 (pick ALA -3.5/under 48.5)

SUN BOWL: #21 Arizona State (8-3) vs. Purdue (7-4): pick ASU +7.5/under 55.5

Other than top ranked USC, every Pac-10 bowl team is in a no-win situation by playing a lesser team. This is certainly no exception although with the Sun Devils missing their star quarterback Walters it could get interesting. First of all, there are two common opponents. Both clubs traveled to Northwestern with ASU winning 30-21, while Purdue lost 13-10 during what wound up as a four game losing streak and it was their only loss to a team not going to a bowl. The other was #11 Iowa who Purdue lost to 23-21 on the road and ASU clobbered 44-7 at home. Purdue does have 3 wins over bowl teams. First came a 51-0 thumping of a pretty weak Syracuse team to open the season, then a 41-16 win at Notre Dame and finally a 24-17 win over #24 Ohio State late in the year that left them 3-3 against bowl teams. Arizona State effectively played three bowl caliber teams in their non-conference schedule if you consider that their aforementioned win over Northwestern cost them a bowl bid, and the same can be said about their 28-13 win in Oregon and 45-28 win against Washington State because both finished 5-6 meaning 9 opponents were of the quality variety. They got sloppy late in the season, nosing out Stanford 34-31 and closing with a 34-27 loss at rival Arizona. The question now is if they can rise up at a neutral site and beat a weaker team. I’m not convinced. Purdue scores a ton. They rush well and defend it well, and the Sun Devils don’t have a stud rusher in site. Without Walters to air it out I don’t know how ASU can keep up with them. This is clearly a game that would have been a rout if the future NFL quarterback was on the field, but without him they lose: Purdue 28, Arizona State 24

LIBERTY BOWL: #10 Boise State (11-0) vs. #7 Louisville (10-1): pick LOU -13.5/under 83

It amazes me that people really think the Broncos can compete with national powers. They beat up a mentally Oregon State team 53-34, but the Beavers were coming off a rough loss at LSU and had to travel back to Oregon then to Idaho for the game on a short week so I don’t put much stock in that. All I know is that they stumbled horribly against San Jose State in a 56-49 double overtime win, beat mediocre BYU team by 1 point and nosed out 4-8 Tulsa 45-42 after twice trailing. They also regularly ran up the score on hopeless teams. Louisville on the other hand scored even more touchdowns (68 to 63) against much stiffer competition and had #14 Miami, FL on the ropes up 31-14 before letting them wriggle their way to a 41-38 win. They have scored at least 55 points in their last five games, something Boise State can also boast but again the competition level isn’t even close. Defensively Louisville has held six opponents to 9 points or less, but 5 times Boise State has allowed at least 27 against poor teams. I can’t see how this game is close, and clearly the Broncos should have been paired with a 7-4 club that they could hang with: Louisville 41, Boise State 22

PEACH BOWL: #20 Florida (7-4) vs. #14 Miami, FL (8-3): pick FLA +3/under 52.5

Let’s face it, the Gators are ranked on their reputation. They played some good teams close and won at bumbling #17 Florida State 20-13 late in the season, but also lost 38-31 to hopeless Mississippi State. The Hurricanes also beat the ‘Noles, 16-10 to open the season and have two other wins over ranked teams in the form of #7 Louisville (41-38) and #18 Virginia (31-21) plus a win over bowl bound Georgia Tech (27-3). They have had their stumbles though, falling to #9 Virginia Tech 16-10 to close the season and blow the ACC title, and hand bowl bids to Clemson (24-17) and North Carolina (31-28) by losing to them although Clemson gave theirs up. Still that’s 8 opponents who finished 5-6 or better so they fared pretty well by everyone else’s standards. The winner of this one walks away with a little bit of pride and it is hard to like either team because they both give up a ton on the ground. Miami actually gives up more, and Florida has a better running game so that has to be a big edge. The Hurricanes have a better secondary, but will it matter if they let the Gators run all over them? To his credit Berlin has protected the football although Leak has comparable numbers. Something tells me that Miami will come into this with a disappointed attitude because they missed out on the BCS while the Gators are taking the perspective that they want to impress their new coach: Florida 25, Miami 22

COTTON BOWL: #22 Texas A&M (7-4) vs. #15 Tennessee (9-3): pick A&M -3/under 56

This is a joke of a January 1 bowl, but you can bet the Utes will be pulling for the Aggies all the way. That’s because #5 Utah beat Texas A&M 41-21 to open the season, preceding a six game winning streak before A&M choked away three of their last four. When I say choked I mean it. They lost 35-34 to Baylor who won only once in the Big 12, blew a 28-14 lead against #2 Oklahoma and were shut out in the second half of a 26-13 loss at #6 Texas. They did wipe out bowl bound Wyoming (31-0) Clemson (27-6) and Iowa State (34-3) Oklahoma State (36-20) while also putting down Colorado (29-26) and #23 Texas Tech (32-25) so their mark against bowl teams is a solid 6-3. The Volunteers played a much softer schedule unless you believe the SEC hype. They beat #20 Florida (30-28) early and Alabama (17-13) plus would have been bowl bound South Carolina (43-29) late. Their problem was #3 Auburn, who wiped them out 34-10 on their home field and pushed them around 38-28 in the SEC championship game. They also lost 17-13 to Notre Dame at home. Overall I don’t know what to think of these guys because they won 6 of their 9 games by 6 points or less including a late season 37-31 shootout over 2-9 Kentucky. The only blowout wins were over UNLV and Louisiana Tech who are terrible. Making matters worse, they are down to their #3 quarterback whose older brother was considerably better. Their defense has sagged, giving up 33, 31 and 38 lately which is troubling against an A&M team that failed to score 27 points only twice this season, the opener and the finale which were against top 6 opposition. All signs to me point to the home cooking being served up to them on a platter in a game that shouldn’t be used to analyze the strength or weakness of either conference: Texas A&M 28, Tennessee 17

OUTBACK BOWL: #8 Georgia (9-2) vs. #16 Wisconsin (9-2): pick GA -7/under 41

It took a while, but the Badgers eventually proved they were frauds. They opened by beating the MAC’s Central Florida 34-6, a team that went on to lose 6 more times by at least 17 points while finishing 0-11. Next up was UNLV who finished 1-6 in the Mountain West and 2-9 overall. They stumbled past them 18-3, scoring only 7 points on offense against a team that later gave up 63, 53 and 45 on consecutive weeks. The end of their non-conference schedule was a third terrible team in Arizona, who finished 3-8 and lost 6 times by two touchdowns more. Wisconsin beat them 9-7, but were scoreless through three quarters and never did find the end zone. In the Big-10 they didn’t have to play eventual champ Michigan, and got thumped 30-7 at #11 Iowa a week after getting crushed 49-14 against otherwise 4-7 Michigan State who then went to Hawaii and lost. Their lone big win was 24-13 at #24 Ohio State although they did beat bowl bound Purdue (20-17) and Minnesota (38-14) from the grossly overrated Big-10. The best that can be said about them is they play good defense, but that didn’t stop the Spartans. Speaking of good defense, Georgia can bring it when they are up for it and if Wisconsin puts up 7 total against Arizona and UNLV what can they do against the Bulldogs? Georgia crunched #12 LSU (45-16) beat bowl bound Marshall (13-3) and would be bowl bound South Carolina (20-16) in their first four outings. They later topped #20 Florida (31-24) and Georgia Tech (19-13) who will be in bowls to finish 5-2 against such competition. To boot, they blew out three of the other four teams they beat. To bottom line this, Georgia won’t allow Wisconsin to do a thing on offense. That’s all that really matters: Georgia 20, Wisconsin 6

GATOR BOWL: #17 Florida State (8-3) vs. West Virginia (8-3): pick FSU -8/under 45.5

I love how Cal’s reward for finishing #4 in the country is a Holiday bowl bid against a 7-4 team while the Mountaineers can’t even win the sucky Big East, but they’ll be playing on New Year’s Day. The Mountaineers beat two teams that finished last place in their weak mid-major conferences to open the season, then beat 5-6 Maryland by the skin of their teeth 19-16. Then it was A-10 member James Madison because I guess no high school teams wanted to play them. The best game they played was a 19-13 loss at #9 Virginia Tech, one of three losses to teams who finished ranked including their two terrible Big East members Boston College (36-17) and Pittsburgh (16-13). They bumbled past Big East cellar dweller Rutgers (35-30) along the way. Incidentally FSU didn’t play Virginia Tech this season although they finished second to them in the ACC. They did face Syracuse, beating them ugly (17-13) while WV dusted them off (27-6) but the ‘Noles were on the road. Overall Florida State finished 4-2 against bowl bound teams and clearly has a more powerful lineup. They don’t give up spit on the ground and have allowed just 11 touchdowns all season. West Virginia can’t throw the ball a lick, so they’re pretty much screwed: Florida State 28, West Virginia 10

CAPITAL ONE BOWL: #11 Iowa (9-2) vs. #12 LSU (9-2): pick LSU -7/under 42

The defending BCS champs wound up showing pretty well when all was said and done. They lost 10-9 at #3 Auburn or they would have been the SEC champions and their only other loss was 45-16 at #8 Georgia. They managed to beat 4 bowl teams along the way as well and quietly rolled back up the standings by playing good defense. Iowa wound up 5-2 against bowl teams, but it wasn’t all that pretty. They got clubbed at #21 Arizona State (44-7) and #13 Michigan (30-17) on consecutive weeks and later struggled against two bad teams in the form of Penn State (6-4 win) and Illinois (23-13) also on the road. Four of their wins came by a touchdown or less and since #16 Wisconsin sucks (30-7 win) I guess their 33-7 spanking of similarly overrated #24 Ohio State was their biggest win. This team can’t run the ball (74.9 per game, worst in the nation) so it is a good thing they can stop it (90.2, #6 in the nation). Their quarterback Tate is nothing special, and he faces the #3 pass defense in the nation (145.4 yards). If they can’t run and they can’t pass how are they going to score? LSU will make plenty of plays and dominate this game: LSU 24, Iowa 13

ROSE BOWL: #6 Texas (10-1) vs. #13 Michigan (9-2): pick MICH +5/under 54

The Big 12 spoils the Rose Bowl again, only this time the Longhorns and not the Sooners crash the party and instead of taking on the Pac-10 (Washington State) they challenge the Big 10. First things first, Texas does not deserve to be in this bowl game. They should be picking Cotton against Tennessee with Cal dominating Michigan to prove they are the second best team in the country. This is a squad that stumbled past an Arkansas team 22-20 that was later blown out by three ranked opponents. It is also one that scrapped by a Missouri team 28-20 and the Tigers couldn’t beat anybody down the stretch. They also fell behind 35-7 at home to Oklahoma State and needed a terrible call to rally for a 27-23 win over 4-7 Kansas. Forget the fact that #2 Oklahoma shut them out. I suppose it counts for something that they beat Texas Tech (51-21) and Texas A&M (26-13) and finished 4-1 against bowl teams, but not much. On the other side is an interesting Michigan team. They lost early at Notre Dame (28-20) but reeled off 8 wins in a row including a 30-17 win over #11 Iowa and appeared ready to run the conference table. Then came #24 Ohio State on the road, and we all know how this story ends, a 37-21 loss. That leaves them just 3-2 against bowl teams and three of their wins this season came by a combined 8 points. Edwards is a great receiver and Hart can run the ball, but Benson is clearly the best back in this game and the Longhorns have run for over 300 yards per contest. The big factor here could be the crowd. You can expect all the Pac-10 and Cal supporters to be backing Michigan big time. I think the one dimensional factor of Texas will ruin them against a team that knows how to scheme on defense. Seven of their 11 opponents scored 21 points or less this season, and if they can repeat that I think the Wolverines are going to win this game. Michigan 28, Texas 20

FIESTA BOWL: #5 Utah (11-0) vs. #19 Pittsburgh (8-3): pick UTAH -16.5/under 68

On one hand the Utes should be extremely proud to be in this game having busted the BCS and really put the school on the college football map. On the other hand they should be pissed that their opponent is a sad excuse for a conference champion of the crumbling Big East. The Panthers lost to a terrible Nebraska team (24-17) and also lost at Connecticut (29-17) who isn’t exactly known for their football team. Plus, they lost at Syracuse (38-31) who just got smashed 51-14 to Georgia Tech in their bowl game. Their non-conference schedule featured a 24-3 win over Ohio (who finished 4-7) and a 41-38 win over Furman, whoever the hell that is. At least they closed strong, winning at Notre Dame (another 41-38 game) and beating West Virginia (16-13) before sealing the conference title with a win in South Florida (43-14) to guarantee their superior BCS ranking over Boston College and West Virginia. Now for Utah, who blew out every team they played this season in winning by 17 or more. Their signature win was the opener, a 41-21 spanking of #22 Texas A&M which is probably the difference between them being ranked #10 and #5 at this point. They also crushed North Carolina 46-16 a game before that same team beat #14 Miami, Florida. This team scores a lot, has a Heisman finalist at quarterback and a score to settle. Worse yet, the game is in nearby Arizona. Pittsburgh is just looking for the exit: Utah 42, Pittsburgh 17

SUGAR BOWL: #9 Virginia Tech (10-2) vs. #3 Auburn (12-0): pick VT +7/under 44.5

With all the fuss about the crappy BCS, it did manage to produce this game which should be a good one. The Hokies opened by testing #1 USC before losing 24-13. Since they scheduled one tough one I guess it is okay that the other non-conference foes were 1-10 Western Michigan (63-0) and non-division I club Florida A&M (63-0) but at least they annihilated both of them. They also played bowl bound West Virginia, and beat their rivals 19-13. Any way you slice it up, this team gave up only 12 touchdowns if you throw out the USC game. No other team scored 3 offensive touchdowns against them all season. They closed with wins over #18 Virginia (24-10) and at #14 Miami, Florida (16-10) to finish 6-1 against bowl teams, and if not for a 17-16 upset loss to N.C. State would clearly be a top 5 team. Auburn also opened against USC, but last year and they lost 23-0 for whatever that is worth. This season they also played weak non-conference teams in the form of Louisiana-Monroe (31-0 Citadel (33-3) and Louisiana Tech (52-7). Their coach called it a miracle for them to run the table in the SEC, but didn’t LSU perform that “miracle” last year also? They did it without having to play #20 Florida who always gives them trouble, and the rematch against #15 Tennessee (38-28 win) came against at third string quarterback. They had to scrap to a 10-9 win over #12 LSU and their only really convincing wins were the first one in Tennessee (34-10) and a late season 24-6 victory over #8 Georgia. They are also tough on defense, giving up just 13 touchdowns in 12 games before allowing 4 in the SEC title game. In other words, points are going to be hard to come by. Carnell Williams is an overrated running back at this point, getting a lot of pub for a guy who ranks #36 in the nation in yards per game (92.0). Both quarterbacks are good, but I like Randall’s mobility. The home crowd is with Auburn, but more importantly you can bet the officials won’t be. There is a lot of pressure to produce a clear cut BCS champion this week and they can’t afford a convincing Auburn win coupled with a narrow USC win to produce another split title: Virginia Tech 13, Auburn 12

ORANGE BOWL: #1 USC (12-0) vs. #2 Oklahoma (12-0): pick USC -3/under 54

This is the game of the century as far as I’m concerned, with the past two national champions locking up for a big one. USC has allowed just 16 touchdowns this season, 4 of them coming in a sloppy 31-28 win over Stanford who is the only team to dent their end zone more than twice in a single game. Oklahoma has allowed only 18, but 9 of those came on consecutive weeks in shootout wins over Oklahoma State and Texas A&M. Five of their opponents compiled a grand total of 13 points. There are no common opponents, but the Sooners did dust off Pac-10 member Oregon 31-7 early in the season. Running the ball in this one could be tough. Adrian Peterson had a great year, but he faces the #2 run defense (76.5) and the flexibility of fellow Heisman candidate Reggie Bush gives him a better chance against the #6 run defense of Oklahoma (86.4). More to the Trojans advantage is that they have a better passing game behind Heisman winner Leinart who has Bush, Jarrett and Smith as targets. Oklahoma is a little more limited with only Clayton standing out and he will be double covered all day. I believe Peterson will get some yards, but the Trojans have more big play ability down the field and that’s the difference: USC 28, Oklahoma 22