Well we are just about 1/3 of the way through the season, so let's take a quick look at how my picks have turned out so far, and what adjustments I would make given the benefit of hindsight.

AL East: Let's not panic on the Yankees just yet. Randy Johnson will be better when it warms up and A-Rod looks like he will carry this offense big time. I thought Baltimore would be a surprise, and right now they have been a huge one because the pitching is better than it really should be. Chen could keep it up, but a guy like Bedard (5-1, 2.08) is just out of his mind right now. Their 3-5 pitchers are still weak and during the inevitable stretches where the hitting goes cold they will fall in the standings. I am determined that Boston will not make the playoffs. Clement is not going to hold up and who knows if Schilling will ever make it back. Wells has a nice outing periodically but that isn't enough. Toronto is better than I thought they would be, so shoot me.

AL Central: Cleveland's hitting has killed their chances so far because the pitching (3.65 team ERA) has been there. For crying out loud Millwood is 1-4 with a 3.20 ERA and Sabathia is 3-3 with a 3.59 mark. Because of the current 9 game bulge the Sox own they might not "buy" a hitter at the July 31 deadline, but if they do a run is possible. For Minnesota, I am wrong so far about their starting staff behind Santana because they have all been great. The hitters have been pretty steady and as such they are my revised pick to get the wild card. Chicago is a little better than I expected as a result of an overachieving starting staff somewhat made up of discards. Contreras and Hernandez were dumped by the Yanks, but both have had good seasons while Garcia is pitching like his glory years in Seattle. They are going to hold on and win this division, or the wild card at worst. Detroit is showing the improvement I talked about in my preview with a .270 team batting average while obviously KC is terrible.

AL West: Anaheim isn't walking to the division title, but once they get healthy their hitting (.251 team BA) will come around while so far the pitching (3.50 team ERA) has certainly been top notch. I claim home town insanity where Oakland is concerned. Injuries have really hurt, namely Harden. Coupled with Zito pitching like he wants out of town the bullpen has been worked to death while the offense has not been up to snub, to put it lightly. I had Texas in the cellar and when guys like Rogers (typically a poor second half pitcher) and Chris Young stop pitching so well even a solid offense won't be able to carry them. I believe they finish 10+ out of the division race. Seattle's offense has been a big disappointment with Beltre (.234 5 HR, 24 RBI) not producing as much as expected while Suzuki is merely average (.317) by his standards. Without a starting pitcher with an ERA under 4.24 they don't have a chance.

NL East: This has turned out to be a dynamite division. Atlanta has too much pitching not to be there in the end, but will need the hitting to step it up or for a hot bat to come via the July 31 deadline. Florida (3.53 team ERA) has shown the pitching I said would keep them in it, especially NorCal product Dontrelle Willis (8-2, 1.67) and if Al Leiter can turn it around they will probably win the division. Whoever doesn't get it is going to be the wild card. Philadelphia, New York and Washington are in a numbers game now. All need that extra something they don't have to get back in the race. The Mets need Glavine (5.05 ERA) and Ishii (4.79 ERA) to step it up if they want to make a move. The Phils are looking towards Thome (.219 2 HR, 17 RBI) to give their offense the extra thumper along with Abreu and Burrell but their starting staff doesn't scare anyone. The Nationals have played very well so far as a collection of hired guns with some timely starting pitching from guys like Hernandez, Loaiza, Ohka and Patterson but I don't see it holding up.

NL Central: St. Louis might win this division by 20 games, if not more. Houston is getting the production out of Oswalt, Pettite and Clemens I said they needed to stay in it but even with a combined 2.70 ERA they have a won/loss record of just 11-13. That's because they can't hit (.241) thanks to missing Berkman until recently and being without Bagwell probably for good. Their fate is sealed. Chicago's curse is intact thanks to Prior's injury and apparently Cincinnati really isn't due for a good season. Milwaukee apparently was and behind a no name (other than Sheets) pitching staff (3.46 team ERA) is off to a good start at 24-25.

NL West. San Francisco has gotten a lot out of Barry's replacement Pedro Feliz (.279 8 HR, 32 RBI) but his production pales to everything Bonds does. The team has rallied on offense like I thought they would (.270 team BA) but the pitching (4.73 team ERA) has been subpar, especially the starters. The regulars (9+ starts) have a combined 4.63 ERA and the three not named Schmidt all have losing records. Los Angeles might have peaked too soon and will need a lot more out of Weaver and Perez to get back in the hunt. San Diego is playing like the team that wants it most and I think they ultimately get it. Arizona has been over their head to this point and although I like them to stay in the middle of the division they are not a threat to win it. Colorado just sucks, I should have had them in last place.

So in my revised playoff picks (preseason pick) I will take New York, Chicago (Minnesota) and Anaheim while Minnesota (Oakland) takes the wild card. New York gets rid of Minnesota as usual while Anaheim beats Chicago. New York will oust Anaheim in the ALCS.

In the NL, it is St. Louis, Atlanta and San Diego (San Francisco) with Florida (Houston) as the wild card. St. Louis will dust Florida while Atlanta bests San Diego. St. Louis beats Atlanta in the NLCS.

For the World Series, now I think St. Louis beats New York but it will be a great series.



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that's my take