The divisional round didn’t go as well for me at the wild card round, but I still weathered the Sunday upsets. Straight up I was 2-2 (6-2 for playoffs) and against the spread I went 3-1 (7-1). On the over/under I stalled at 2-2 (5-3).

San Diego (13-5) @ New England (17-0): pick NE -14/over 49

It almost doesn’t seem fair. Instead of their struggling secondary being forced to face the deadly arm of Peyton Manning again, the Patriots draw a Charger team carrying several stars to the game in an ambulance. Unless Rivers, Tomlinson and Gates are all 100% there is very little chance at turning around the 38-14 result from earlier this season. With Volek, Turner and Manumaleuna in their spots this is probably 7-9 caliber football team. In that first meeting New England did what they do best which is move the football at will. Six of their eight meaningful drives went at least 54 yards and five of them ended in scores. San Diego didn’t have a march over 30 yards in the first half as they fell into a 24-0 hole.

I would compare playing the Patriots to dealing with a tennis player who has an excellent serve. If you don’t break it then you don’t have a chance. If you have yours broken by turning over the football you are in for a long game. Last week Jacksonville stood toe to toe with them for nearly three quarters, but once they started kicking field goals to cap their first two drives of the second half it was over. New England had the ball just 7 times (discounting a one play kneel down to close the half) in a game filled with 10 combined possessions of 2:45 or more. The two times they didn’t score came on a missed field goal from 35 yards out and when they all but closed out the game on a six play drive that chewed up 3:25 of the final 3:46 on the clock. This offense doesn’t fail. If you want to beat them it takes even more than matching scores. It likely requires a special teams or defensive touchdown.

If San Diego wants to stay in the game they are going to follow the game plan of long drives and limiting mistakes. Last week Jacksonville lost by turning it over twice. The first led to a 29 yard touchdown march. The second took away their shot at tying the game, ending a drive that began with them trailing 28-20. Rivers had 2 turnovers in the first meeting and Tomlinson rushed for just 43 yards (2.4 average). A repeat performance will have Gillette Stadium rocking by the end of the half.

Perhaps the only thing going for the Chargers is history. In 2005 they snapped New England’s 21 game home winning streak with a 41-17 romp over an injury riddled team. That game may as well have been played on Jupiter 1,000 years ago for all it matters this week. Unless Antonio Cromartie does what he did to Peyton Manning this season there will be nothing to do during this game other than hope the late tilt at Lambeau has some excitement. The Patriots are ready to make another statement: New England 41, San Diego 13

NY Giants (12-6) @ Green Bay (14-3): pick GB -7/over 42

I don’t know which team was more impressive last week. The Packers spotting an opponent that has been near the top of the NFC for several years 14 points only to outscore them 42-6 the rest of the way showed a dominance not seen since, well, they beat these Giants 35-13 back in week 2. New York shook off their doubters and beat a Dallas team that had already defeated them twice by double digits. In doing so they were disciplined with no turnovers and just 3 penalties (25 yards). Dallas turned it over twice including the game ending interception and was penalized 11 times (84). That’s how you lose a game when having more total yards (336-230) and going 10/16 on third down. New York just hung tough and got it done.

Now the task for the Giants is to overturn a game that totally got away from them in the second half. Green Bay scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions of the second half. They also did it without Ryan Grant running the football although New York was missing their back Brandon Jacobs as well. Favre was a razor sharp 29/38 that day and hasn’t exactly shied away from the single digit temperatures expected this Sunday at Lambeau. Eli Manning’s only appearance on this field came as a rookie backing up Kurt Warner who led a 14-7 win. I don’t know that he’s necessarily intimidated by the weather or environment, but it certainly a huge disadvantage.

Then there is the matter of New York stopping the run. Marion Barber had 129 yards last week (4.8 average) and Grant is the hottest running back in the NFL right now. Green Bay’s offensive line is playing their best when it matters most. The Giants can pressure the passer, we know that, but when they are getting run on it becomes much less of an issue. This week I expect that to be the case. Jacobs and Bradshaw give them a better shot at countering that attack with rushing of their own compared to what a tired Shaun Alexander provided last week in the snow. However, Green Bay’s corners should be able to lock down on Burress and Toomer.

The Giants have been such a great road team with nine straight wins, but this environment is totally different than anything they have faced during that stretch. The Packers won’t stumble out of the gate again and should keep Eli Manning out of his first Super Bowl one season after his brother won it. Instead Favre breaks the record for longest stretch between Super Bowl starts. He also gives the Patriots another shot at history as they attempt to beat a team from every division in a Super Bowl. They have already taken care of Carolina (South) Philadelphia (East) and St. Louis (West). Now they get their shot at avenging their lone Super Bowl loss: Green Bay 27, NY Giants 17