Subtlety is not one of my strengths
NFL Predictions 2007: Super Bowl XLII
Last week I regressed with a 1-1 showing straight up (7-3 for the playoffs) and 0-2 against the spread (7-3). On the over/under I was 1-1 (6-4) so at least I’m guaranteed a winning record on all fronts for the playoffs.
Before we get to the actual game let’s settle the talk about New England as the greatest single season football team ever. At 19-0 they would be that on paper because commissioner Roger Goodell doesn’t have the guts to mark up their record by taking away their week 1 win for the Spygate incident. How do they really compare to the 1984 49ers and 1985 Bears who both went 18-1 though? Personally I would take either of those teams over this one in a heartbeat. Both of them had their records marked up by opponents who lost in the AFC Championship Game that very season, San Francisco to Pittsburgh (20-17) and Chicago to Miami (38-24). There is no shame in that.
Chicago’s season was equally dominant to what New England did early this year. Only two teams came within 7 points of them whereas the Pats rallied three times in 2007 to win by 3. Obviously the Bears had a better defense, pitching four shutouts (two in the playoffs) and holding 14 of 19 opponents to no more than 10 points . The Pats held 5 teams to that total, two of which were their pathetic division mates Miami and New York late in the year. Speaking of that division, how has it been playing 33% of their schedule against three teams who were 6-30 against the rest of the NFL?
San Francisco was not as dominant in the regular season. Five teams came within a touchdown of them although two were in the opening two weeks and a third was the feisty playoff bound Rams on the last game of the season with nothing to play for. I should know, I was there and even in a 19-16 final it was evident Los Angeles wasn’t going to win that one even if it didn’t really matter. The 49er defense held 9 teams to no more than 10 points, two of those were the playoffs. In their march to the title they beat three teams 82-26. Thus far New England’s margin is a mere 52-32 meaning it would take a 45-7 win for them to be in the same neighborhood. Along the way they won 23-0 over a Chicago team that would go 18-1 the following season. Let’s not confuse the Patriots roughing up some playoff teams (Pittsburgh, Washington, San Diego, Dallas) with dominance over a team like that.
In the end, this has been great fun to watch. Brady leading his guys back from the dead time after time is the NFL at its best. However, when you’re stumbling to a 21-12 win over a team with a hobbling quarterback days away from knee surgery and whose MVP running back is sidelined I’m not sure you can really be called the best ever. Winning 31-20 over a Jacksonville team led by a quarterback in his first playoff game doesn’t stir up greatness talk either when you consider San Francisco knocked around the greatest quarterback of all-time Dan Marino 38-16 in the Super Bowl. Or that Chicago shut out soon to be Super Bowl winning quarterback Phil Simms 21-0. Now we can get to the game.
New England (19-0) vs. NY Giants (13-6): The theme to these playoffs has been rematch. Out of 11 games played this marks the eighth time teams will meet who squared off in the regular season. Two of the exceptions actually played in October (Giants-Bucs) and November (Packers-Seahawks) of 2006 so they were hardly unfamiliar with the opposition. Then again, the one meeting of teams who hadn’t seen each other the longest resulted in this: Seattle 35, Washington 14. Maybe we should be happy to have seen a few good ones. Of those 7 prior rematches, 5 have turned out the same way as the original. Would you like to know about the other two? That would be the Giants turning around a pair of losses to Dallas and a 35-13 beat down against Green Bay. Can they do it again, overturning a 38-35 thriller to these Patriots?
I have heard a lot of the reasons why New England will cruise in this game. The pressure of an undefeated regular season was more magnified. They have been in this position three times before whereas they had never been 15-0. The home crowd noise slowed down their offensive tackles, feeding New York’s powerful rush. The weather in Arizona will be pristine, opening up their passing game. Those are all good points. None of them really matter.
New England will win this game because they are the better team. Momentum has been killed by the ridiculous open week prior to the Super Bowl. If Tom Brady’s ankle was bothering him it has now had two weeks to heal and New England’s brain trust has had that much more time to scheme around it. How much help does the highest scoring offense need anyway? Teams have come at the Patriots in every way possible. Jacksonville tried to limit their possessions, but couldn’t stop them from scoring. San Diego hit them hard with defense, but failed to punch in touchdowns. In the first meeting New York ran on them only to get burned by the big play that has highlighted New England’s dream season.
I do not like Eli Manning in this game. It takes a perfect effort to beat the Patriots and that includes a zero on the turnover line. Having met this defense before now New England has had two weeks looking over that film searching for weaknesses. Their coaching staff really doesn’t get enough credit, but it will be apparent in this game when he throws two or three interceptions before walking off the sideline mumbling to himself. The Giants can and will run the ball, but their secondary can’t stop the long pass plays forever. Eventually touchdowns will be scored and the Patriots, contrary to Plaxico Burress, will score more than 17. I’ve been grinding over a score all week. I feel like New England is in the mid 30’s while New York is in the low 20’s. This won’t be your typical blowout, but no one will be on the edge of their seat believing the Giants will stop history: New England 37, New York 23