New England (15-0) @ NY Giants (10-5): pick NE -13/under 47

 

When the Bills couldn’t stop the run last week, the Patriot run at perfection got a little bit easier. Now New York has nothing on the line as they host a team trying to burn up the record book. When trying to beat a team who has cut up the NFL like a hot knife through butter it is a good idea to have some offensive players ready. Instead the Giants could be without their most productive receiver Plaxico Burress even though he has practiced. They are also missing two of his backups. That is important because those are the guys who would go in this situation. Tight end Jeremy Shockey is also out and of their six top reception leaders this season only Amani Toomer is certain to play. I’m pretty sure Asante Samuel can bottle up a 33 year old man who hasn’t broken 1,000 yards since 2003. Their top rusher Brandon Jacobs is banged up and might be held out, leaving it up to Reuben Droughns and Ahmad Bradshaw, the latter of which came out of nowhere to rush for 151 yards last week. Will Eli Manning play? If so, will he finish? The thought of Anthony Wright or Jared Lorenzen probably doesn’t scare the #4 ranked New England defense which has given up an NFL low 239 points. The Patriots have already said they aren’t interested in resting players and have already earned a reputation for running it up. The 1972 Miami Dolphins can put down the champagne and reach for the Jose Cuervo by halftime. The Giants might have a better chance if those old men suited up instead of their practice squad. There won’t even be much of a home field advantage because fans are hawking their tickets to the highest bidders. League history will be made for points scored by a team (when New England scores 6) TD passes (when Brady throws 2) and TD receptions (when Moss catches 2) while thanks to a late negotiation viewers on multiple networks can watch: New England 34, NY Giants 10

 

Carolina (6-9) @ Tampa Bay (9-6): pick CAR +4/under 36

 

At the time I wasn’t sure I understood Gruden’s strategy last week when he sat several key starters and lost in San Francisco. The team had control of the #3 seed over Seattle and now would need a Seahawk loss to lowly Atlanta. Perhaps that is just what Gruden had in mind. There are two downsides to that #3 seed. The first is playing a hot team that has won their way into the playoffs on the final weekend. It might be the emotionally driven Redskins, or the Vikings with rookie Adrian Peterson who no one would want to face in his first playoff game. Even the Saints should they sneak in would be a dangerous opponent. Instead he knows for sure it will be the Giants who even at 7-1 on the road have played erratically in the second half of the season. Only one of those road wins was over a winning team (Washington) and that came way back in September. Then there is the matter of the frozen tundra. Gruden wants no part of Green Bay in the second round. He won’t be able to avoid it if the #6 team pulls an upset, but at least this way he has a chance. Now back to our story. The Panthers have been pretty competitive the past two weeks. Matt Moore is the latest quarterback to appear out of oblivion and lead his team effectively. He has at least given the team something to think about as they line up their depth chart for 2008. If Tampa Bay rested players last week, I have to assume they will have even more in street clothes this week. Usually offense is hit hardest and I would think Garcia, Galloway, Pittman and Graham are on the sidelines for this one. It will be up to the defense then. As a team they win the comeback of the year award for rising from #17 in yards to #2 and from #21 in scoring to #1. It’s almost as if 2006 never happened. Carolina wants to end this season on a high note and coach John Fox is fighting for his job. Even if the win is over backups it might prove that he still has his players: Carolina 16, Tampa Bay 13

 

Seattle (10-5) @ Atlanta (3-12): pick SEA +2.5/over 38

 

I am starting to run out of things to say and this might be a good indication of that. The Seahawks will be trying to complete a sweep over the other teams with a bard as their mascot. They split with the Cardinals, won at the Eagles and last week beat the Ravens. Aside from that the only impact this result will have is on the 2008 draft. Atlanta should think about their future and the prospect of drafting game changing running back Darren McFadden out of Arkansas before trying to win this game. Seattle has struggled mightily on the road at 3-4 and two of those wins came by a combined 9 points. Atlanta showed life last week in Arizona when they rallied to force overtime, but still lost 30-27. Their point total was a victory in itself after posting 53 in the previous five games total. We keep hearing that Jerious Norwood will be unleashed and yet even with a 6.3 yard average he has yet to carry the ball more than 9 times. Then there is Chris Redman who was pulled off the street only to pass for 298 and 315 yards in two of their past three games. It might be luck. He was born on 7/7/77 after all. The key for me here is that Atlanta’s defense has totally mailed it in. Their last six opponents have all scored at least 28 points. Even with Seneca Wallace passing and Maurice Morris running I still favor Seattle scoring quite a bit. The Seahawks will play most of their defense and it has held six teams to 13 points or less this season. Things to watch for include DeAngelo Hall taking off his uniform in mid play and walking off the field: Seattle 24, Atlanta 16

 

New Orleans (7-8) @ Chicago (6-9): pick CHI +3/under 42

 

The schedule makers probably thought they were brilliant for putting a rematch of the NFC Championship Game in week 17. Now the only thing on the line is the Saints hoping for a miracle to claim the second wild card while the Bears seek to ruin another team’s plans. Last week Chicago made sure Green Bay wouldn’t be home throughout the playoffs unless Dallas suffers a first round upset. The motivation for them will be lessened this week because the Packers are their bitter rivals. New Orleans simply waited too long to start the motor this season and now it is probably too late. Their 0-4 start seemed bad at the time, but Indianapolis, Tampa Bay and likely Tennessee will all be in the playoffs. What really killed them were midseason losses to St. Louis (at home) and Houston. Now I’m not sure how interested they are in muscling up against these Bears in frigid conditions. They haven’t been outdoors since Thanksgiving week in Carolina, part of a dream schedule that should have carried them to the NFC South title. Instead they have lost seven times on artificial surface this season. The Saints have stayed alive on the arm of Drew Brees and if you watched Brett Favre last week you know he likely won’t be able to get it done in the Windy City. That leaves it up to Aaron Stecker who has posted good fantasy football numbers in relief of McAllister and Bush, but will be praying for the season to end by the second quarter: Chicago 27, New Orleans 12

 

San Francisco (5-10) @ Cleveland (9-6): pick CLE-10/under 41

 

Sometimes it is hard to gauge a team’s future by looking at momentum. The 49ers ended last year at 7-9 having swept division champion Seattle. They appeared to be going in the right direction. Instead it has been a step backwards. The Browns wrapped up a 4-12 campaign by losing their last four. It appeared that coach Crennel had one foot out the door. Many questioned a draft day trade with Dallas because they felt giving up a 2008 first rounder would wind up being a top 5 selection. However, buoyed by Derek Anderson the team is on the brink of a wild card berth. Last week’s stumble against rival Cincinnati hurt their chances badly and now their fate rests in the hands of Tennessee. Regardless of how this game turns out they are in if the Titans lose, out if they win. If there has been a bright spot for San Francisco it has been Shaun Hill taking over at quarterback. He has been sharp in completing 68.3% of his passes and his QB rating (101.3) is nearly equal to Smith (57.2) and Dilfer (55.1) combined. They had totaled 9 touchdown throws through a dozen games while Hill already has 5 in three. Unfortunately, now he has back spasms and it might be former Heisman winner and NFL journeyman Chris Weinke getting the start. At best the 49ers are erratic on the road having gone 2-5 with four losses by 17+ points. It is one thing to win at home over disinterested Tampa Bay, quite another to take that act to Cleveland. The Browns have made their living on their turf, having not lost since the season opener. Even if their outcome is irrelevant I think Crennel wants to keep his team sharp and regain the momentum lost last week. Should Cleveland plug in a few backups I still like their chances, especially if Weinke is the 49er quarterback: Cleveland 20, San Francisco 9

 

Detroit (7-8) @ Green Bay (12-3): pick GB -3/under 40.5

 

The Packers are back at home and at least this week if the weather is poor it will be “their” poor weather. Green Bay scored just 7 points last week in Chicago’s blustery conditions after averaging 33.3 in their previous seven games. The Lions stopped the bleeding with a 25-20 win over Kansas City, ending a six game losing streak. Maybe Jon Kitna isn’t psychic after all. In this one he will need to beat history. Detroit is 0-14 in December/January games played outdoors with their last win coming in 2000 when they beat the Jets 10-7. The running backs in that game were Curtis Martin and James Stewart. In the past three years they have lost December games at Lambeau, and six times overall since their last win. The losing streak spans 16 games including a 1994 playoff loss and dates back to 1991. Yep, it was the last time they faced them without Bret Favre. It was Mike Tomczak at the helm on that day. They won’t face Favre for long in this one so maybe they have a chance. I still like their chances with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, Morency at running back and maybe some other backups involved. The Lions just can’t win late season road games. Their offense has been a big disappointment and now is missing Roy Williams and Kevin Jones. They have no big play star power or touchdown makers. In their past five road games their scoring average is 12.8 points. I know the Packers have no reason to win and teams have been known to lay in egg in such situations, but I love the defense that has allowed 9.5 points per game in their last four at home: Green Bay 23, Detroit 13

 

Jacksonville (11-4) @ Houston (7-8): pick HOU +0/over 41

 

Last year the Texans haunted the Jaguars, sweeping them and costing Jacksonville a wild card spot. This year Houston lost the first meeting 37-17 and now can do no harm to their playoff status. The Jags are locked into the #5 seed and will visit either San Diego or Pittsburgh, two teams they have already beaten. The Texans didn’t look ready to play last week in a 38-15 loss to an Indianapolis team playing for nothing. However, on their home field they have scored three straight convincing wins over teams with something on the line at the time, downing New Orleans, Tampa Bay and Denver by an average of 27-12. However, Jacksonville is 5-2 on the road with one of the losses being a 28-25 decision at Indianapolis. If Quinn Gray starts at quarterback they have already seen him throw for 354 yards this season at New Orleans. LaBrandon Toefield and Greg Jones aren’t bad rushers either. For that matter, Houston is playing a backup quarterback and third string rookie running back. Last week I got sucked into thinking the Colts would rest their starters against them, but this time I am more confident Jack Del Rio wants his guys to get a break prior to their wild card game. Even more so because it will mark their four road trip in six weeks and there is no reason to tire anyone out or risk injury: Houston 24, Jacksonville 19

 

Cincinnati (6-9) @ Miami (1-14): pick CIN -2.5/under 46.5

 

Who wants it less? The Bengals are one of the biggest disappointments this season and it traces back to their 51-45 loss at Cleveland in week 2. That game kicked off a string of seven games where their defense allowed at least 24 points during their 2-6 start. They are 5-1 when the defense holds a team under that number this season, and the Dolphins are not exactly a scoring machine. They have been held under 21 points in 12 of 15 games during regulation. Even with a 4-0 edge in turnovers last week at New England they still had no chance. Meanwhile the Bengals showed some spunk in possibly knocking Cleveland out of the playoffs last week. When the schedule came out it looked like a late December walk towards a division title, but it has turned into simply salvaging their pride. Rudi Johnson hasn’t been himself most of the year and the offense just isn’t the same without him. With an inconsistent rushing attack the offense has been erratic. Ten times they have failed to score over 21 points after reaching that mark in 22 of 32 games the previous two seasons. Enter Miami’s dying defense and even if Cincinnati is 1-6 on the road they do have Carson, Chad and T.J. at their disposal. The Dolphin offense is filled with guys who should be playing in the AFL: Cincinnati 27, Miami 16

 

Buffalo (7-8) @ Philadelphia (7-8): pick PHI -6.5/over 36.5

 

Both of these teams will look back on a season filled with lost opportunities. The Bills lost 8-0 in the snow at Cleveland and dropped two early season games on field goals in the waning moments. Otherwise they are already locked into the second AFC wild card despite an offense and defense both ranked in the bottom 3 for total yards. The Eagles dropped three games in a row to playoff teams by 3, 4 and 3 points while losing five times overall by no more than 4 points. Winning two of those games would have them in the driver’s seat for the NFC’s second wild card. Instead this is a battle to avoid a losing season. Philadelphia’s biggest issue is winning at “The Linc” where they are 2-5, one of which was a 17-7 slugfest over clueless Miami. The only positive has been that only one loss was by more than 8 points. Buffalo’s play on the road has been pretty erratic at 3-4 with three losses by at least three touchdowns while two of the wins were over bad teams (Jets, Dolphins). I still can’t figure out how they are sniffing .500 while their opponents gain 83.7 more yards per game and outscore them by 6.3 points on average. At times Trent Edwards has looked like the leader they haven’t had in a while and Marshawn Lynch will finish in the top 5 for Rookie of the Year after eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing last week. The defense has been spotty, allowing 25+ points six times, all losses. Philadelphia’s defense has also faded, giving up 23+ in five of their past seven games, but they are 2-3 in those games. After seeing what the Eagles did last week to the Saints who were fighting for a playoff berth on their home field I’m not sure this game will be close. McNabb was sharp, Westbrook did his thing, and the defense stopped the run. This week Edwards doesn’t have the weapons Brees had and once Philly starts putting up touchdowns it is all over: Philadelphia 31, Buffalo 14

 

Dallas (13-2) @ Washington (8-7): pick WAS -7/under 39.5

 

The Redskins seemed totally out of it at 5-7 when coach Gibbs inadvertently called a double time out to help Buffalo beat them with a field goal. The Sean Taylor tragedy was still fresh and they had only a few days to prepare for Chicago without their starting quarterback. Since then they have reeled off three wins to end Chicago’s season, hurt New York’s chances and put the Vikings on the brink of elimination. None of those teams were a pushover and twice they won on the road by an average of 10 points. Did we mention their quarterback is a 36 year old career backup who hadn’t seen real playing time in ten years? It took this team a moment to catch their breath, but they are playing with a real purpose now. The Cowboys are sending thank you cards to the Bears for locking up their home field advantage and allowing them to play backups in this game. There might be a sense of wanting to knock the rival Redskins out of the playoffs, but not at the expense of losing another key player. Owens is already out with an injury and Romo has a sore thumb. We might see Terry Glenn for the first time this season, but it should be one time Washington quarterback Brad Johnson throwing him the ball. At 39 he is even older than Todd Collins. Tyson Thompson could be the one running the football for Dallas and give the announcers a chance to mention his 525 yard game in high school. Any way you slice it, the Redskins need this game and the Cowboys don’t. Dallas is 7-0 on the road, but their focus now is winning two home games to reach the Super Bowl: Washington 23, Dallas 14

 

Pittsburgh (10-5) @ Baltimore (4-11): pick BAL +6/under 36

 

In week 9 these teams met and it really set the tone for their respective second halves. Last year the Ravens had mugged the Steelers twice en route to their 13-3 season atop the AFC North. When Pittsburgh won 38-7 this year it capped off a 6-2 first half and a win over Cleveland the following week kept them in control of the division. It hasn’t been easy, but they have held on ever since. The Ravens were two games into their current nine game losing streak and looking nothing like the defending champs. Pittsburgh has a little bit on the line as they fight San Diego for the #3 seed in the playoffs. Neither team wants to deal with Jacksonville in the opening round or potentially New England in round two. Since their last game was on Thursday night Pittsburgh comes in with a few extra days of rest. They also have to figure out how Najeh Davenport fits into their offensive plans after losing Willie Parker. Tightening up the defense might be a good idea too after allowing 34, 29 and 24 points the past three weeks. Baltimore’s defense has been soft as well, allowing 29.2 points during their losing streak. The offense has been dismal too, averaging 15.3 over that stretch. I don’t know how much Tomlin can gamble with his starters. Big Ben is out and after taking 47 sacks this season and 46 last year that is a smart decision. Charlie Batch gives them very little chance to win, but won’t be throwing many passes. It then becomes a guessing game and perhaps wanting to beat a rival plays into it. The biggest factors could be how little Baltimore is able to run the ball without Willis McGahee and what rookie Troy Smith can do in his first NFL start. I like him going forward, but against this defense he will struggle because there is no threat of a running game. This should be the ugliest game of the week: Pittsburgh 12, Baltimore 9

 

St. Louis (3-12) @ Arizona (7-8): pick AZ -4.5/over 48

 

The Cardinals stayed competitive all year, but lacked the killer instinct to earn a playoff spot. Three of their losses came by a total of 8 points and six times they lost by no more than a touchdown. Twelve of their games were decided by 8 points or less, resulting in a 6-6 record. Whisenhunt definitely needs another running back to help implement his game plan. Edgerrin James was consistently mediocre this season with only two games over 92 yards rushing yet only one under 46. He averaged 19.9 carries, but had only 3.8 yards per rush. The Rams on the other hand never got started. They entered the bye week at 0-8 and their only bright spot was winning three of four to begin the second half of the season. Injuries to Bulger and Jackson have left their offense at #22 in yardage and #26 in scoring. Only four times have they scored 21+ points, a total they reached in half of their games the previous three seasons. The first meeting was a 34-31 shootout won by Arizona in what turned out to be quarterback Matt Leinart’s last game. Boldin and Fitzgerald are both banged up, but the pair has managed to combine for 2,035 yards receiving and 16 touchdowns. Warner has 21 turnovers yet is having his best season since going to the Super Bowl with these Rams in 2001. His replacement Bulger has 16 turnovers despite missing four full games and most of another. Leading receiver Torry Holt had a nasty confrontation with the head coach and one has to wonder how motivated he will be this week. Steven Jackson has been quietly consistent since his return to the lineup even as fantasy football owners rue the day they drafted him in the first round. Even in the winter I still like the Cardinals in the desert: Arizona 30, St. Louis 21

 

Minnesota (8-7) @ Denver (6-9): pick MIN -3/over 41

 

It has been a dismal season for the Broncos and easily could have gone much worse. If not for three game winning Elam field goals this team starts their season 0-8. In reality they have now lost four of their last five games with all the losses coming on the road. The past three were by 14, 18 and 20 points so perhaps the fatigue of a long season and traveling took a toll. Jay Cutler has been very mediocre and the offense seems to lack leadership. Last year’s leading receiver Javon Walker hasn’t been a factor due to injury since catching 17 passes for 220 yards in the their 2-0 start. However, Brandon Marshall picked up the slack with 92 receptions and 1,211 yards with twelve games of 67+ yards. The running game was good, but not the dominant force it usually is. Henry and Young combined for 285 rushes and 1,333 yards but scored just 5 touchdowns. Getting into the end zone has been the issue this season. They have seven games scoring no more than 15 points. Enter the Vikings as they hold out slim hopes at making the playoffs. This is a perfect opponent for Minnesota who can stuff the run and ramble all over the Denver front line with Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor. Things could get very interesting for the NFL rushing title with Tomlinson leading by 113 yards over Peterson since LT’s team is playing only for playoff positioning. Depending on how the Pittsburgh game goes he might be pulled early and certainly Peterson is a good bet for 100-150 yards in this game. Denver has won three of four at home, but as previously mentioned they are tired. San Diego embarrassed them on national television. They are on a short week and just want the season over with. Minnesota has won their past two road games and just had their five game winning streak snapped by Washington. They will do everything they can to put the pressure on the Redskins to beat Dallas: Minnesota 27, Denver 21

 

San Diego (10-5) @ Oakland (4-11): pick SD -7/under 43

 

JaMarcus Russell has been sneaking onto the field in December. This week he will be there from the start for the first time in his rookie season. The Chargers will be waiting. He turned the ball over four times last week and was sacked twice in extensive action. Cromartie leads the NFL with 10 interceptions while Merriman has 11.5 sacks. This won’t be as ugly as last year’s season opening 27-0 win for San Diego, but it might be close. Oakland has made great strides this season with a solid running game behind an improved line. Their three backs have combined for 1,738 yards rushing on 412 carries. By comparison, in their last six seasons the average production has been 329 carries for 1,322 yards. Not since the 2000 season has their running game been this effective. Unfortunately, their most productive runner Justin Fargas is out so it is up to Dominic Rhodes and possibly LaMont Jordan. Rhodes had 115 yards last week in Jacksonville which is hard to do when losing 49-11. In Jordan’s last four games against the Chargers he has 55 carries for just 153 yards (2.78 average). I expect San Diego to come into the Black Hole ready to play. They want the #3 seed and won’t be counting on Baltimore beating Pittsburgh to get it. Tomlinson has destroyed the Raiders in his career with 21 total touchdowns in 13 games. He also has a rushing title on the line. Rivers showed a little fire last week talking smack at Cutler during their 23-3 rout of Denver. His past two outings have been sharp, completing 67.4% of his passes without a turnover. This secondary can challenge him if he needs to throw more than 20 passes, but I don’t expect that to happen. Tomlinson and maybe Turner will run over the Raiders. Russell is good for two or three turnovers to make it even easier: San Diego 26, Oakland 10

 

Kansas City (4-11) @ NY Jets (3-12): pick NYJ -4/over 33.5

 

Is there a chance these teams will show up and decide to not even play this game? Just call it a 0-0 tie and move on with the rebuilding process. The only interesting aspect is Herm Edwards returning to face his old team. These days that seems to happen multiple times per season the way coaching changes are made. Even after losing three in a row the Jets have more momentum with a 2-4 record since their bye week. The Chiefs are now 0-8 since their bye week. Each team has questions at quarterback. Croyle has the nod for Kansas City in 2008 for the moment, but we know how those things can change. The past two weeks seem to have sold New York on Pennington again after he completed 72.9% of his passes. Clemens has played in what I would call 7 full games when you put it all together. He has 11 total turnovers and 4 touchdown passes with around 200 yards passing per game. Not exactly numbers to build a future around. Running back has also been an issue for both teams. The Jets thought they had a stud in Thomas Jones, but he has scored only 1 touchdown. Eight times he carried 19+ times, but only half of those games produced more than 75 yards in a season where he averaged 3.6 yards per rush. For Kansas City it was an injury to Larry Johnson that stifled their offense. They had nearly the same scoring average, but LJ is the player who fuels their attack. Without him the struggling offensive line looked even worse. Through all of the mess, I like Chad Pennington to secure his job for 2008 while Thomas Jones provides more touchdowns than his previous 15 games combined: NY Jets 24, Kansas City 13

 

Tennessee (9-6) @ Indianapolis (13-2): pick TEN -3/over 39

 

If the Titans make the playoffs can the Madden curse be considered broken? It would give them 10 wins behind Vince Young, but his turnover total (20 and counting) could wind up being the worst of his career while his touchdowns (9 passing, 3 rushing) might be lows. They are 3-5 when he turns it over at least twice. Now he has a chance to prove once again that he is a winner in the truest sense of the word. The question is how much opposition he faces against the Colts who are locked into the #2 seed. Will they want to dispatch the Titans now rather than possibly dealing with them later? With VY in the fold Tennessee lost to Indy 22-20 earlier this season and split two meeting last year, losing 14-13 here and winning 20-17 at home. The Titans are 4-3 on the road while the Colts are 6-1 at home so there isn’t much of an advantage either way there. Losing Freeney has really hurt Indianapolis and could help Young scramble for big plays. Even if Peyton Manning starts and builds a lead, he will not finish this game. Tennessee can remain patient with their running game against a defense that in the best of circumstances couldn’t stifle them. I’m not even sure this game is close. If this plays out the way I think it could, both of the AFC wild card teams could pull upsets. That would mean this game is played for real in a couple weeks. For now the Colts don’t want it bad enough: Tennessee 27, Indianapolis 19