Washington (9-7) @ Seattle (10-6): pick SEA -3.5/under 40

 

Two seasons ago the Seahawks started their run to the Super Bowl by hosting these Redskins, albeit a round later after Washington had upset Tampa Bay. Stop me if you’ve heard this before, the visitors came in riding a long winning streak with an aging quarterback. That year they had won six in a row with Mark Brunell at the controls. This time Todd Collins has taken over and the team has won four straight. Emotion is probably the difference now as the team plays for fallen teammate Sean Taylor. The Redskins come in a lot more battle tested with a 3-5 record against playoff teams while the Seahawks are just 1-1 having won a weak NFC West.

 

Right off the bat the key is Collins against a defense ranked #2 in QB rating allowed (73.0). Seattle is fourth in sacks (45) buoyed by Patrick Kerney who came over as a free agent from Atlanta and promptly set a career high at 14.5. In the secondary Marcus Trufant has 7 interceptions, leading the team to the fourth highest total (20). I know Collins is a feel good story, but this is a serious opponent. Taking a look back at the teams he has beaten the list isn’t that impressive. Chicago was realistically out of the playoff chase. Beating the Giants was nice, but he went 8/25 without a touchdown pass. Minnesota hasn’t stopped anyone passing the ball this season and Dallas played their backups.

 

One thing I know we won’t see much of is great special teams play. These teams are ranked #21 and #22 respectively in field goal percentage behind Suisham (82.9) and Brown (82.4). The punters struggle even more with Washington’s Frost #28 (41.0) and Seattle’s Plackmemeier dead last (40.0) in gross average. Seattle has the lowest ranking of any team playing this weekend in third down conversions at #26 (35.0%) and that could keep Washington in the game. The Redskins allow the third lowest average per rush (3.7) and the combination of Morris and Alexander hasn’t been great this season with a 3.87 average and 8 touchdowns. That leaves them with the eighth lowest average as a team and puts them #20 in yards rushing.

 

Enter Matt Hasselbeck. Even sitting down early last week he set career highs in yardage (3,966) touchdowns (28) completions (352) and attempts (562). He has spread the ball around nicely and gotten the most out of receivers despite losing Branch and Hackett for a stretch. Washington has the tenth best QB rating allowed (77.1) and certainly their secondary will lay it all on the line in Sean Taylor’s absence. Even if they are successful, I don’t believe Clinton Portis can be effective against a good run defense that will be stacked up to stop him. The Seahawks are very good at home where they went 7-1. This game should look very similar to the last playoff meeting, a 20-10 Seattle win. In fact, the score will be almost the same: Seattle 23, Washington 14

 

Jacksonville (11-5) @ Pittsburgh (10-6): pick JAX +0/over 38.5

 

It seems like yesterday that these teams met in this stadium. That’s because it almost was. Three weeks ago the Jaguars went into Heinz Field and mugged the Steelers 29-22, rushing for 224 yards in the process. Roethlisberger helped Pittsburgh erase a 22-7 deficit to the tie the game and had 3 touchdown passes, but he completed only 16/33. Garrard was equally erratic at 17/33, also with 3 touchdowns and the game’s only interception. In fact it was the only turnover and with 5 total penalties it was a pretty clean game despite the ugly weather. Pittsburgh had an otherwise perfect record at home, and has gone 17-7 on this field the past three years. They are 0-2 against Jacksonville.

 

One notable difference this week will be Najeh Davenport replacing the injured Willie Parker at running back for the Steelers. Over 107 carries this season he actually has a better average rush (4.7 to 4.1) but he’s mostly doing damage against a tired defense late in games. His presence changes up Pittsburgh’s approach a little. Davenport is not a threat to catch passes with 50 in his six year career spanning 67 games. Parker is usually good for an extra 10-15 yards receiving and the possibility keeps a defense honest.

 

Pittsburgh has to do this passing the football, but Jacksonville has the seventh lowest QB rating allowed (76.1) and fourth most interceptions (20). Big Ben has had a career year with 32 touchdown passes against 14 turnovers. They are 4-2 when he doesn’t turn it over, including the loss to Jacksonville. Speaking of protecting the football, David Garrard has only 5 on the season with the team 6-2 when he has none. Pittsburgh is tied for last in the NFL with 11 interceptions as a team. For what it is worth these are the highest ranked teams in third down conversions playing this weekend with Pittsburgh third (46.8) and Jacksonville sixth (45.7) so there could be some long drives.

 

Everyone is hung up on the Steelers having the #1 defense (total yards) but they are just #13 in yards per rush allowed (4.0) which is what the Jaguars exposed in the first meeting. If you keep running at them you can have success. Pittsburgh has been able to use Big Ben’s touchdown passes to get ahead of teams who then give up. Only New England saw fewer rushes against them. The Jaguars will keep coming at them and while I like the Steelers to put up a fight I don’t know how they can turn around the earlier outcome without Willie Parker who had 100 yards rushing on just 14 carries against this defense. The Jags have a better record against a tougher schedule, having gone 4-3 against playoff teams while the Steelers went 1-2: Jacksonville 27, Pittsburgh 24

 

NY Giants (10-6) @ Tampa Bay (9-7): pick NYG +3/under 39.5

 

New York played last week like it was the Super Bowl, trying to end New England’s perfect season. For their efforts three players suffered injuries. Against a Carolina team playing out the string there wasn’t pressure on the Buccaneers to go all out and they rested all their key players during a 31-23 loss. For that matter they sat players out the previous week in San Francisco. The result is Tampa Bay being healthy, but perhaps rusty while New York seems sharp even without their center (O’Hara) linebacker (Mitchell) and cornerback (Madison) certain to play.

 

In a playoff game teams want to run the football, but these defenses have been up to the task this season tying for the fourth lowest yards per rush allowed (3.8). Offensively New York is third (4.6) while Tampa Bay is ninth (4.2) meaning this could get interesting. The Giants have had injuries in their backfield, but after missing games at two separate times this season Brandon Jacobs looks like he is ready to play. The Bucs lost their top two threat Cadillac Williams for the season early on and when the season began you would never have convinced Earnest Graham he would be held out of the final game and a half to save him for the playoffs. He has been a savior in their division title run.

 

If passing the football is the tiebreaker the edge seems to be slightly in favor of Tampa Bay. Their defense is #1 in yards allowed with the eighth lowest QB rating allowed (76.2). New York could have the answer to Garcia’s efficiency. They give up the fifth lowest completion percentage (58.5) and lead the NFL with 53 sacks. On the season Garcia has just 6 turnovers, all in his final 6 starts. By contrast, Eli Manning set a career high with 27 turnovers. Even as the team was winning three of four his play was lackluster in December until last week’s sharp outing against the Patriots.

 

Neither team has been good against playoff teams. New York is 1-5 with a win over Washington who later beat them while Tampa Bay is 1-3 with a win over Tennessee. The Giants are hot on the road having won seven in a row since losing their season opener in Dallas. Before shutting it down for the finale Tampa Bay had won three straight at home. This appears to me like a typical low scoring NFC playoff game. The Giants should be able to stay committed to the run because the Bucs can’t build a big lead. That being the case, they wear them down and pull it out: NY Giants 15, Tampa Bay 13

 

Tennessee (10-6) @ San Diego (11-5): pick SD -8.5/under 40.5

 

When the Chargers started out 1-3 it appeared as if their 14-2 season in 2006 was a distant memory. Then they closed the year on a 10-2 run winning their final six games. Looking back at that start two of the losses were on the road against the AFC’s #1 seed New England and the NFC’s #2 seed Green Bay. Their home record is 7-1, marked only by a 30-16 loss to Kansas City in September. Better yet, they have a road win over the Titans just a few weeks ago.

 

In that first meeting Tomlinson played like the MVP with 173 total yards and two touchdowns as they rallied from down 17-3 in the fourth quarter to win in overtime. Vince Young threw two interceptions, one of which led to a field goal, and ran only twice for 2 yards while passing for 121 yards. Now his health is in question after leaving last week’s win over Indianapolis. His bum quad could limit his scrambling ability against a defense that is fifth in the NFL with 42 sacks, not to mention an NFL low 70.0 QB rating allowed and NFL high 30 interceptions.

 

On the other side is Philip Rivers who has been ripped for regressing in his second full year as a starter. The difference is the turnovers, up from 11 to 21, but he had only one in his final three games. They prefer to establish the run and limit his passes. When he doesn’t throw 30+ times they are 8-0 and have won their last fifteen. The Titans rank second in interceptions (22) and fourth in opposing QB rating (74.5) but allowed Rivers to make some plays the first time around. Their hope is that Haynesworth can keep the San Diego running game contained so Rivers has to do it again.

 

Playing in the tough AFC South which went an astounding 30-10 against the rest of the NFL Tennessee went 2-4 versus playoff teams. In the weak AFC West San Diego was 2-3 playing playoff competition with four of those games coming on the road. Momentum is with the Chargers who have been impressive while winning these past six. Five of them were by at least two touchdowns with the exception being the win at Tennessee. The Titans have won four of their past five to squeeze into the #6 seed, but the last three were over the terrible Chiefs, Jets and then the Colt backups. It was hard to watch them struggle against a team led by Jim Sorgi. San Diego’s defense will dominate this game, especially if Vince Young is limited. Even if he ruled Southern California back at Texas, this is the NFL: San Diego 24, Tennessee 12