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Thursday, July 19 2018

NFL Predictions 2012: Week 5

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Life was not too bad for me last week. I returned to double digits in straight up wins at 10-5 (37-26 overall) and went just south against the spread at 7-8 (28-33-2 overall). Most importantly I did my thing on the over/under going 9-6 (33-29-1 overall). Hopefully it will get better and better for me from here on out.

Arizona (4-0) @ St. Louis (2-2): The Cardinals are a huge surprise to some, but only a mild surprise to me. Their defense is really good and finished 2011 very, very strong. The problem was always inept quarterback play, pretty much since Kurt Warner retired. It basically dropped them from Super Bowl contenders to below average overnight. The team has adjusted, and figured out a way to win without top shelf quarterback play.

Don’t get me wrong. Kevin Kolb has done some things since taking over for injured John Skelton and that has helped. The pass offense is still in the bottom 10 and they have allowed 14 sacks, second most in the NFL. Fortunately for them, the opponent this week has given up just as many sacks and is even lower in the bottom 10. Thursday Night Football excitement forthcoming! Uh, maybe not, especially when the defenses are factored in.

The Rams have 8 interceptions and the Cardinals have 16 sacks. Combined the teams have allowed only 5 touchdown passes. Arizona does have a big edge in completion percentage for the opposing passer (56.3% to 64.7%) but has given up over 40 more yards per game due to the fact that they have been leading games as teams try to catch up.

When it comes to run defense, Arizona gives up over a yard less per carry (3.6) than St. Louis (4.7) and has given up far fewer touchdowns on the ground (1 to 6) and first downs (22-33). When the offenses are considered, however, the average rush levels out because the Rams (3.7) have a yard advantage over the Cards (2.7). St. Louis, with Steven Jackson still on the roster, does not have a single rushing score. Arizona has just 2 as they try to find a lead rusher to churn out some yards. For now it’s Ryan Williams.

This looks like an even game to me when the home field and travelling on a short week factors come into play. However, the Cards have Larry Fitzgerald as their playmaker. The Rams counter with Danny Amendola. I know that’s not totally true, but pretty much. A placekicker could actually help the home team here. Greg Zuerlein has hit all 12 field goals he has attempted in 2012 including 3 from beyond 50 yards. If he can steal some points and they win the turnover battle an upset is very possible. Fatigue sets in here, but they are still the better team so the Birds win: Arizona 23, St. Louis 17 (AZ -1/over 39.5) 

 

Miami (1-3) @ Cincinnati (3-1): The Dolphins are kicking themselves after two close losses have put them in a hole. Well, they might be kicking Dan Carpenter who could have them at 3-1. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill set a rookie franchise record last week throwing for 431 yards. Considering this team has been trying for a long, long time to replace the guy whose record he broke (Dan Marino) I think that’s a good sign.

The Bengals are looking like the 9-7 playoff team they were last year over the past three weeks, taking advantage of inferior competition after getting blasted by Baltimore in the season opener. This is not a great team, but they are competent enough to beat two rookie quarterbacks and a second-year starter. Now the rookie tour continues with Tannehill, and for that matter next week in Cleveland where they get Brandon Weeden again. Talk about a gift-wrapped early schedule.

 

They will face Super Bowl champion quarterbacks the three weeks after that, which will be a shock to their system. Even against inexperienced quarterbacks, this run defense is dead last in average rushing yards per attempt (5.3) against and gives up 131.3 yards rushing per game. Miami is fifth in rushing yards per game (153.3) and second in touchdown runs (7) with a healthy average per attempt (4.6). If they can come in here and run it’s going to be interesting.

Brian Hartline is the surprise leader in receiving in the NFL through a month of play and has a homecoming of sorts here having gone to Ohio State. Scary as it is to say, they might have to slow him down. His opposite number is A.J. Green who is legitimately dangerous under any circumstances. However, the Bengals are likely to find tough sledding on the ground against the NFL’s best run defense. It’s tough to allow just 56.8 yards per game and 2.4 per attempt when you’re in close games.

Cincinnati has a vicious pass rush (17 sacks) but just 1 interception against inexperienced signal-callers for the most part. Miami can also get after the passer (12 sacks) and their yardage total (297.8 per game) is deceiving because teams pass so much against them. The completion percentage allowed (54.7%) is low and they have 5 interceptions. The Bengals have given up more sacks (12) than the Dolphins (8) and don’t have as good of a running game. I think the visitors come in here and smash them in the mouth on the ground. It will slow down the pass rush and leads to an upset win: Miami 24, Cincinnati 23 (MIA +3/over 45)

Cleveland (0-4) @ NY Giants (2-2): It has been an uneven start to the season for the defending champs, going 0-2 against division foes and 2-0 against the NFC South. Now they step outside the conference to take on a clearly inferior opponent. Their pass rush should make life very difficult on rookie quarterback Brandon Weeden. Since a rocky opener Weeden has actually been solid, and the only time the Browns have lost by more than a touchdown was a 24-14 defeat against the Bills. However, the Eagles were the team that made his life difficult and they rush the passer.

Both defenses are giving up their share of rushing yards, but have kept their opponents from scoring the easy way with Cleveland having allowed just a single touchdown and New York two. The Browns actually have the edge in yards per attempt (4.0 to 4.5). Offensively each team has a rookie first-round rusher, but Trent Richardson is miles ahead of David Wilson. Richardson has not found a lot of rushing room with just one game over 50 yards on the ground, but does have 344 total yards on 79 touches and 4 touchdowns. Wilson has been nearly invisible since fumbling on the first drive of the season.

In all the Giants run for more yards per game (89.5 to 76.3) but those numbers are ugly and their average per attempt is inferior (3.9 to 4.1). The ground games will not be the determining factor here. Neither team will do much in that area unless it’s New York salting the game away with a big lead. Cleveland struggles to defend the pass and has hung tough thanks to 13 sacks. They also have a couple days extra rest to prepare for this game, but I don’t think it’s enough against a potent passing attack led by Eli Manning. I think the home team comes in focused and gets this done easily: NY Giants 27, Cleveland 16 (NYG -8.5/under 44)

Green Bay (2-2) @ Indianapolis (1-2): This is a tough spot for the Colts. Their head coach Chuck Pagano is out after being diagnosed with leukemia. They will try to play in his honor, but this is the NFL and the Packers come in really needing the win. Aaron Rodgers, a Cal graduate, might even draw a little inspiration going against Stanford alum Andrew Luck.

The former Bay Area passers are certain to decide this game. These respective rush offenses have been below averaging with just 1 rushing score each and 34 combined first downs rushing, with both failing to gain 4 yards per attempt. The rushing defenses are also struggling, but probably not enough to represent a glaring edge for either side in this matchup.

Green Bay is trying to revive their defense and against the pass they actually have good yardage numbers (201.3) but have given up 8 touchdown passes. The sacks total (14) is getting to where it needs to be. Indy has only half of that, and just 1 interception. Luck has the advantage of a dome crowd, and might catch the Pack looking ahead to next week’s showdown at Houston who is stealing all of their headlines. There is also the extra rest factor with the Colts coming off a bye week, and having not travelled since the opener in Chicago. Green Bay is starting a three-game road trip here and needs to take care of business. They should, but I can see it being close: Green Bay 24, Indianapolis 20 (IND +7/under 48)

Philadelphia (3-1) @ Pittsburgh (1-2): The Steelers have to be steaming. They had everything under in control leading the Raiders 31-21 into the fourth quarter in Oakland, but literally fumbled it away. Two weeks of stewing on that game while sitting on a losing record should have them focused. Meanwhile the Eagles just wrestled another win over division rival New York in primetime and while this isn’t a long trip they have already been visitors in two other games. I can’t see them being the better team in the fourth quarter here.

I’m getting ahead of myself. The biggest issue is Philly’s offense. Just once have they put up 20 points and this is a scoring league these days. It’s great that they are 3-1 and the defense is doing enough, but what if James Harrison and Troy Polamalu actually play in this game? They would be in huge trouble. Both run defenses have done a good job and the Eagles are notably better in average per attempt allowed (3.8 to 4.3). Offensively Philadelphia has LeSean McCoy and of course Michael Vick so their rushing attack is vastly superior across the board.

Both pass defenses are in the top 7 with different standout numbers. The Steelers are better in yards allowed per game (190.3 to 206.8) and first downs allowed (34-44) but the Eagles lead in interceptions (6-1) completion percentage allowed (52.4% to 60.9%) and sacks (7-5). The numbers really favor the visitors and I hate going against that, but rest is a huge key here. I also feel as though the Eagles have shown very little on the road barely escaping currently winless Cleveland and getting blasted in Arizona. In their only home game the Steelers creamed the Jets. I think they take this one over in the fourth quarter and pull it out when a Vick comeback falls short on a failed two-point play: Pittsburgh 21, Philadelphia 19 (PHI +3.5/under 43)

Atlanta (4-0) @ Washington (2-2): Right off the bat it’s hard not to note that this is a matchup of two of the top four scoring offenses in the league. The Falcons knew they needed to get more explosive after getting blown out by the Packers two years ago in the playoffs so they gave up the farm to draft Julio Jones. It might not have paid immediate dividends, the offense was shut out in last year’s playoffs, but now it seems like a championship offense. Yes, offense wins championships.

The Redskins are .500 because they allow exactly as many points as they give up, 30.8 per game. If it’s a shootout there is no way I am backing a rookie against Matt Ryan, especially considering Ryan has Jones and Roddy White on his side. The Falcons would love for it to happen that way, especially against a defense giving up 326.3 passing yards per game, second most in the league, and the most touchdown passes (11). Robert Griffin III has a significantly better pass defense to deal with, one that just made Peyton Manning look shaky on national television.

I think Washington will come at this game looking to keep it close and run the ball as much as possible. Atlanta has a shockingly suspect run defense, giving up 5.2 yards per carry and the fourth-most yards per game (146.3). Considering they are undefeated, those are tough numbers to compute because teams are passing to catch them right? No one is running for more yards than the ‘Skins (175.5) thanks to Griffin and they average 5.2 a pop. If they run for five yards here it’s going to be tough for the Falcons to stay undefeated. 

Atlanta should be able to run a little here, and in blowouts in Kansas City and San Diego seems to have shown they are no longer suspect in grass field situations. I know this appears to be a game destined to go high scoring, like a 31-24 win for the visitors. Something tells me Mike Shanahan is going to run a bunch of clock and grind out possessions as much as possible to get the Falcons out of rhythm offensively. I see a bunch of Alfred Morris here and an inspired Redskins effort on defense. I’ll stop just short of calling for the upset though because Ryan is on a roll and coming off a scare this team will be better prepared: Atlanta 21, Washington 20 (WAS +3/under 51)

Baltimore (3-1) @ Kansas City (1-3): The Ravens are looking like a Super Bowl team to me, even if their defense is not what we have grown accustomed to in the Ray Lewis era. The offense has yet to be held below 23 points this season, and with a couple extra days to prepare they should be well prepared to exploit the reeling Chiefs. This Kansas City team is a whisper away from being 0-4 and with an opportunity to steal a spot in first place last week at home decided instead to fumble away a blowout loss to San Diego.

Already three times the Chiefs have given up 35 points this year, and while all of the offenses that did it to them were led by good quarterbacks (Ryan, Brees, Rivers) I hear Joe Flacco is pretty good too. Matt Cassel is going to find it tough to keep up. Baltimore is stingy against the run allowing just 3.2 yards per carry. Kansas City is second in rushing (173.5 yards) with a gaudy average (5.6) but a lot of yards have come on big plays and plays that don’t impact the outcome.

The Ravens have a good average (4.7) as well and more rushing touchdowns (5-4). It shouldn’t be hard for them to average over 4 yards per carry in this one, and that opens things up for Flacco and the passing game. Baltimore is fourth in passing offense (324.8). Kansas City has taken 13 sacks and thrown 7 interceptions, which would explain why Cassel is ready to lose his job to Brady Quinn. If they had a better backup he would already be on the bench.

This is a good spot for Cassel to recover, however, against the fourth-worst pass defense. With Terrell Suggs to rush the passer the Ravens are exposed (295.8 yards per game) but still don’t let anyone score (2 touchdown passes). The Chiefs have given up 10 scores through the air and allowed a high completion percentage (65.1%). I don’t think this is a wipeout, but I’m not ready to call the upset. I think the Chiefs run just a little and make some big plays passing to Dwayne Bowe to keep it close: Baltimore 28, Kansas City 24 (KC +6.5/over 46)

Chicago (3-1) @ Jacksonville (1-3): The Bears have the disadvantage of travelling on a short week here and it will be interesting to see how they respond. They have the fourth best score differential (+40) in the league, and two of the teams ahead of them are undefeated. That’s because all three of their wins have been by 16-plus points, a tough feat in a competitive league. Meanwhile the Jags have lost twice by 17-plus, both of them coming here on their home field. 

Blaine Gabbert has made some strides in this his second season, but has already been sacked 12 times and faces a ferocious pass rush led by Julius Peppers that has recorded 15 on the season. If Maurice Jones-Drew and the running game can’t get started this could get ugly. Well, Chicago’s run defense is the third best in the league (67.3 yards per game) and gives up just 3.6 yards a carry. Next question? Jacksonville’s run defense is the third-worst, allowing a healthy average (4.3). Worse yet, Matt Forte might be healthy to team with Michael Bush.

If the rushing yards are slanted to Chicago as I think they will be, it’s all over but the final score. The Bears have 11 interceptions after the handful they took off Romo on MNF. The Jaguars have only 2 interceptions and 2 sacks on the season, hardly an indicator their defense is ready to keep them in this game. Offensively Jacksonville has only 1 rushing score and while they do have a much better average per rush than Chicago (4.4 to 3.4) the lack of offensive balance is going to adjust those numbers. 

Only the Seahawks have a worse passing offense than the Jags. The Bears haven’t lived up to their offensive potential yet thanks to a weak offensive line, but Jay Cutler has a lot more talent around him than Gabbert. I think the visitors jump ahead here and slug this one out comfortably by NFL standards: Chicago 24, Jacksonville 14 (CHI -5.5/under 40.5)

Seattle (2-2) @ Carolina (1-3): In a high scoring NFL season the Seahawks have been putting fans to sleep with defense and lack of offense. The highest point total in any of their four games has been 36. The Panthers have already played shootouts totaling 62 and 58 points, splitting those contests. When their offense was limited in the other two games, they lost.

The key here is run defense. Seattle is second there (62.8) with a stout average per carry allowed (3.0). Carolina is porous (134.8, 4.9) and is in trouble if they can’t get Marshawn Lynch out of beast mode. The rushing offenses are equally dangerous and while the Seahawks have more production clearly the Panthers have more rushing options although against this defense I don’t know if it matters.

On defense Seattle can rush the passer and defend the pass. Cam Newton will probably need to have a big day scrambling to keep Carolina in the game. If his running backs are limited and he tries to pass he will do so against a tough duo of corners. Rookie Russell Wilson should be able to pick his spots and be efficient against a defense allowing a high completion rate (66.7%). I look for a very low scoring game here. This should be a fairly tight game and while I tend to favor the home team and more experienced quarterback in these spots I think this is an elite defense Pete Carroll has. Even the usually fatal cross-country travel won’t do them in here: Seattle 21, Carolina 17 (SEA +3/under 42.5)

Buffalo (2-2) @ San Francisco (3-1): The first thing I think about when these teams hook up is that awesome meeting in 1992 when Jim Kelly’s Bills won 34-31 over Steve Young’s 49ers in a game featuring no punts and over 1,000 yards of offense. I don’t think we will get a repeat of that here. Well, I’m actually not sure San Francisco will punt. Buffalo’s run defense is a bottom-five unit having allowed 137.0 yards per game and 4.8 per attempt. New England just ran them over in a 52-28 thrashing.

Not like they need it, but Brandon Jacobs is healthy for the 49ers who are third in rushing offense (167.0, 5.4). Will Alex Smith even throw a pass in this one? On the flip side obviously the Bills, who are fourth in rushing offense (158.0, 5.1) would also love to run the ball. Unfortunately for them they face a stingy run defense (79.3, 3.2). Making matters worse, the Bills have to be worn out traveling across the country and beaten up from the Patriots taking it to them. I doubt they have the energy to put up a fight here. 

If Ryan Fitzpatrick has to rally, it will come against the fifth-best pass defense allowing just 197.8 yards per game. They do lead the NFL in passing scores (12) but also have 7 interceptions and a low completion percentage (57.6%). San Francisco’s passing offense added weapons in the offseason, but it hasn’t translated to production so far. I don’t think it matters here. The defense will give them the ball and the offense will run it all afternoon: San Francisco 31, Buffalo 17 (SF -9.5/over 45) 

Denver (2-2) @ New England (2-2): Trailing 21-7 nearing the midway point of the third quarter, lesser teams might have been worried staring at a 1-3 start. The Patriots just ripped off six straight touchdown drives and cruised to victory in Buffalo. After spending three of four weeks on the road they will be enjoying their home field as they welcome old foe Peyton Manning.

The Broncos are feeling pretty strong after routing the rival Raiders 37-6. The offense has been fairly consistent putting up points, and when the defense holds up they win. It’s easier said than done against a team led by Tom Brady, especially now that the Patriots are running the ball. New England is eighth in rushing (144.0) comfortably ahead of Denver (109.0). Both run defenses are giving up just 3.4 yards per carry and fewer than 90 yards per game, putting the pressure on the quarterbacks who are both someday bound for the Hall of Fame.

Brady has only 1 interception and the Pats average about 16 more yards passing per game. Defensively the edge goes to the Broncos though. They can rush the passer, give up over 60 fewer yards through the air and have a lower completion percentage allowed (58.6% to 63.5%). Numbers usually don’t lie, and they lead me to believe this will be close. However, I think Bill Belichick is tired of losing to the Manning brothers and so is Manning. They won’t let this one get away: New England 27, Denver 23 (DEN +6.5/under 52)

Tennessee (1-3) @ Minnesota (3-1): The Vikings are one of the biggest surprises thus far this season and have a great opportunity to remain in first place if they can top the struggling Titans here. The defense has limited two playoff teams from last year, San Francisco and Detroit, to 13 points apiece the past two weeks. Tennessee dreams of having a defense like that, having allowed 34-plus points in every game this year.

Jake Locker’s first season at starting quarterback has been interrupted by injury, leaving veteran Matt Hasselbeck at the helm. Fellow 2011 first-rounder Christian Ponder is also a little banged up, but healthy enough to go. Each team has a star running back on their roster. Unfortunately for the Titans, Chris Johnson is not playing like one. Adrian Peterson definitely is.

Don’t expect Johnson to wake up here against a defense that is top 10 defending the run (85.3, 3.3) having allowed just 1 rushing score all year. Tennessee’s run defense (136.5, 3.9) has held up pretty well considering teams are pounding it at them after building leads. Offensively it’s a similar story. The Titans (3.7) have only a slightly inferior average compared to the Vikings (4.0) but run the ball far less (18.5-31.0) because they are always trailing.

Pass defense is a big liability for the visitors. Tennessee leads the league in completion percentage allowed (75.3%) and has an awful touchdown-to-interception ratio (10-1) while giving up 285.0 yards per game. Minnesota’s pass defense is competent and they have a pass rush, which will be enhanced by the dome crowd. Ponder has yet to thrown an interception and won’t be pressed into throwing one here. He will simply ride his running game and defense. Hasselbeck has to see the end in sight, even for his role as a backup. He is going to turn it over and when Johnson fails to break any long runs they are sunk: Minnesota 28, Tennessee 17 (MIN -5.5/over 44)

San Diego (3-1) @ New Orleans (0-4): Drew Brees will try to make history by throwing a touchdown pass for the 48th consecutive game and it’s only fitting he is up against the team that cast him aside. Philip Rivers has other ideas, hoping to keep his Chargers in first place. In the first month of the season Brees has averaged over 100 yards per game more than Rivers, but has failed to win a game. However, the Saints give up almost 60 more yards per game and if the numbers hold Rivers will be completing a much higher percentage of his passes.

At some point both offenses will kickstart their running games. San Diego is hoping Ryan Mathews is healthy and able to hold the football. They average just 3.6 yards per carry. New Orleans has plenty of options, but despite a healthy average (4.3) don’t run it very often (18.8 per game). Defensively the Saints give up an unreal 186.8 yards per game, obviously the most in the league, and 4.9 per carry. The Chargers have a steady average (4.1) and are fifth in yards per game (79.3).

On paper it looks like San Diego should get this done. However, it’s SNF and New Orleans is tired of losing. They are way too talented not to snap out of this. The Chargers have won with a bit of smoke and mirrors thus far. They capitalized on the bizarre punting woes of Oakland in the opener, blasted hapless Tennessee and did in the Chiefs who fumbled the game to them early. The Saints have lost by a total of 20 points, never by more than a score. They finally get one: New Orleans 28, San Diego 26 (SD +3.5/over 52)

Houston (4-0) @ NY Jets (2-2): For a team that is technically in first place the Jets are in shambles. They were throttled 34-0 by the 49ers on their home field and once again the offense is in question. Now they have to muster up points against the league’s stingiest defense on national television. If the Texans are vulnerable at all it’s against the run, but they have yet to allow a rushing touchdown and give up only 90.3 yards a game. They go give up 4.3 yards per carry, but the Jets aren’t in a position to take advantage (86.5, 3.2).

Houston’s pass defense allows just 182.8 yards per game and a league-low 52.9% completion percentage. They have recorded 13 sacks. New York has the league’s worst completion rate (49.6%) even with a handful of rookies starting, and just 205.5 yards per game. If they can’t run or pass what can they do? The Jets give up a ton of rushing yards (172.8) and a high average (4.9). Surprisingly the Texans have a low average (3.7) but churn out the yards (136.5) with Arian Foster and Ben Tate.

It’s not like the passing game has done much for Houston either, but they have thrown just 1 interception and the defense carries them so they don’t need to pass. New York lost Revis, but does have the fourth-best pass defense (197.5). The problem is lacking a pass rush (5 sacks). I think we are in for an all-out effort from the Jets trying to prove they are closer to the team that went to consecutive championship games than the 2011 version that missed the playoffs. However, the unbeaten Texans are looking to strut on MNF and they prevail: Houston 20, NY Jets 14 (NYJ +9/under 41)

 

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