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Monday, April 23 2018

NFL Predictions 2013: Week 11

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I’m about to go into tilt over last week. I don’t have a research team at my disposal, but I’ll go out on a limb and say that never in the history of the league have three teams with a combined 1-23 record entering a given week gone 3-0. Las Vegas won some money I’m sure. Even the reliable Prediction Machine (CBS) went 6-8 straight up and stands at 100-47 behind ESPN’s Ron Jaworski (103-44) who is the leader of the experts.

 

My 6-8 mark (94-53 overall) dropped me to 32 on the list, and that’s a bummer. I was also 6-8 against the spread (69-76-1 overall) and it’s starting to get serious because I hate dipping below .500 especially by more than a few. I did manage to go 9-5 on the over/under (85-63-1 overall) so there’s that. No one cares about the total points though, let’s be honest.

 

 

Indianapolis (6-3) @ Tennessee (4-5): No one would have guessed this TNF showdown would be so critical in the race for the AFC South. The Titans are clearly the only threat to the Colts at this point with the other teams in the division a combined 3-15. They aren’t just a threat. They control their own destiny to win the division. If they win here, and handle business at Oakland next week, they will enter the rematch at Indianapolis with at worst a chance to tie them atop the division while of course the season sweep would give them the tiebreaker.

 

That’s thinking ahead, and that’s what got both of these teams in trouble. These short weeks are tough because teams are somewhat distracted by a future opponent literally just days away. Indianapolis ran into a St. Louis team that unleashed Tavon Austin in a big way and turned Andrew Luck into a pumpkin. Tennessee got a Jacksonville team that clearly was tired of losing and wanted no part of going 0-16. Boy was I wrong on both of those results.

 

This game I think is fairly straightforward. The Colts swept the series last year in a pair of tight games played in latter portion of the season. They have a big edge at quarterback with the Titans going back to Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s a savvy vet, but without a running game or truly dynamic receiving targets he will struggle. Luck has T.Y. Hilton peaking and he might be the most explosive player on the field, including Chris Johnson. I see a sluggish game. Tennessee has a good defense, but they were made to look silly by a Jags team with no offensive punch. What now? Ugly, ugly game and ultimately I like Indy to assume control of the division: Indianapolis 21, Tennessee 17 (IND -3/under 43)

 

 

NY Jets (5-4) @ Buffalo (3-7): This is the spot the Jets are set up to fail. They are, after all, the only team that has alternated wins and losses this season. I don’t think it holds though because the bye week changes the flow. They are rested, and the Bills are short on options at wide receiver. It’s fine to say their effort level will be high with their bye week on deck, but they have to be worn out after three double-digit losses to contenders, two of which came on the road.

 

I generally like Buffalo and if not for their quarterback shuffle this might have been a different season for them. As it is, they have a chance to jump out of the bye week and win four straight (Atlanta, at Tampa Bay, at Jacksonville, Miami) against a quartet of teams with just 8 total wins. If they were able to muster a win here it might keep them in the wild card hunt down the stretch.

 

New York is in the hunt, and they know it. That’s why they added Ed Reed for veteran leadership on the back end of their already stout defense. Even if he is a shadow of his former self, it doesn’t really matter. They are putting their chips in the middle of the table. Buffalo has scored a total of 40 points the past three games, and never more than 24 in a game this season. New York has had their moments on defense allowing more than their share (38, 28, 27, 49) and three of those came on the road, which gives me pause. They also have failed to score more than 18 points on five occasions.

 

In the first meeting, the Jets won 27-20. Was it that close? Not really. They had the game’s only 2 turnovers and a ridiculous 20 turnovers. The total yards edge was a convincing 513-328 and they never trailed. Things change in a couple months. This time Chris Ivory (4 carries, 5 yards) is going to get the load instead of Bilal Powell (27 carries, 149 yards). Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods were targeted 23 times, catching 8 passes for 121 yards, but both are out for the Bills. That means a running game that was stuffed the first time around will be in even more trouble this time. In the other meeting Fred Jackson busted a 59-yard run, but throw that out and he combined with C.J. Spiller to gain 22 yards on 16 carries. Slug it out, low scoring AFC East affair that won’t be one to watch again: NY Jets 19, Buffalo 13 (NYJ +1.5/under 41.5)

 

Atlanta (2-7) @ Tampa Bay (1-8): It’s amazing how many people are jumping on the Bucs for this game. True, they have looked reasonably good the past two games, but the Falcons still have plenty of talent left from a team that was within a play of the Super Bowl last year. I have to really think about this one. In general I hate the Falcons outdoors on natural surface. They are 0-4 on the road this year having allowed 23-plus points in all of those games and being limited to no more than 17 in three of them. Their offense has posted 33 points over the past three weeks since they first met Tampa Bay and won 31-23.

 

The Bucs have actually been finding more offense. They scored a whopping 44 points over their first month of games, but have put up 20-plus in four of the past five including two of the toughest places to play (Atlanta, Seattle). I can see them getting over 20 here, and I’m having a harder time seeing that for the visitors. The first time around Atlanta had just 15 first downs. Each team had over 100 yards worth of penalties and a turnover. Tampa Bay controlled the clock 37:49 to 22:11, but wasn’t able to get the lead and take advantage of that edge.

 

This time rookie Mike Glennon is without Doug Martin or Mike James who combined for 92 yards rushing in the first meeting. The combination of veteran Brian Leonard and journeyman Bobby Rainey might not be too bad though. He also is without Mike Williams, but his main man was Vincent Jackson (22 targets, 2 touchdowns) and I think it will be again this time. It was a breakout for Harry Douglas taking over targets from Julio Jones, but Matt Ryan also has a limited Tony Gonzalez in the rematch. He also has a deflated team on the road with no playoff aspirations. I think they sink here, but an opposite result wouldn’t shock me either. I am erring on the side of the home team: Tampa Bay 24, Atlanta 20 (TB +1.5/over 43)

 

Detroit (6-3) @ Pittsburgh (3-6): Things aren’t so good for the Steelers lately. Ben Roethlisberger is under fire and when the team isn’t winning this is what happens. No one remembers the two rings on his hand. The defense is still eleventh overall, but the offense is average and the record is bad. The Lions on the other hand are looking great, finding ways to win and with Aaron Rodgers out now find themselves in the driver’s seat for the NFC North title. I am a little worried about complacency for them here actually.

 

One thing that doesn’t concern me as much is their ability to win road games. They have lost in Arizona and Green Bay, but were able to get it done in Washington, Cleveland and last week in Chicago. The offense isn’t as explosive, to be sure, but the defense is steady. They are not going to shut anyone down as evidenced by their season best effort allowing 17 points, but only twice have they given up more than 27 points. Is Pittsburgh a scoring threat? They got 31 in a blowout at New England when they gave up 55. Other than that, their season high is 27 in a loss against Minnesota played in London. Seven times they have failed to go over 24 points.

 

Pittsburgh’s defense has been great in spots allowing five teams to 21 points or fewer, but the other three teams really got on them (40, 34, 55). It’s almost as if the flood gates open and then it’s over. Plus, they have faced some young, inexperienced quarterbacks this seaon and that’s not Matthew Stafford. He has Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush ready to roll here. I like Detroit’s offense to drive for field goals here in the early going to establish a lead. Their defense is going to use sacks and turnovers to keep the home team off the scoreboard. I could see a 9-0 score at halftime, maybe 12-7 something like that. From there the Lions grind it out and find a way like they have been all season: Detroit 22, Pittsburgh 17 (DET -1/under 48)

 

Washington (3-6) @ Philadelphia (5-5): It’s fitting the Redskins are back at 3-6 because now everyone can point to last year and say they are still in the race. They are, but this is absolutely a must-win game. The first time around, in the season opener, they were blasted off the field to the tune of a 33-7 Philly lead two minutes into the second half. From there they worked somewhat back in before falling short, but the damage was done. They had no answers for Chip Kelly’s quick paced offense in a game that featured 5 turnovers, 18 penalties and 6 sacks. It was not one for the vault.

 

Now Robert Griffin III is healthier, but Nick Foles is the new opposing quarterback and comes in red-hot without a single interception on his resume. These are a pair of top-5 offenses against bottom-6 defenses so the points should flow yet again I would think. Other than a few bumps in the road Philadelphia’s offense has produced to the tune of 27-plus points on six occasions. Their defense has stepped up after a shaky first month (138 points in 4 games) allowing no more than 21 points in six straight.

 

Washington has done their share of scoring as well, only once dipping below 20 in a game and five times posting 24-plus. Their defense, however, has had no bright spots beyond what I keep pointing out weekly (the Raider game) and other than that they have allowed 24-plus points each week. Defense makes the difference here, and for me it’s a big difference. I know the total yards are bad for the Eagles, but the scoring is what matters. They can hold the scoring down in the red zone and let their explosive offense do its thing for the win: Philadelphia 30, Washington 22 (PHI -3.5/under 53)

 

Arizona (5-4) @ Jacksonville (1-8): This is a unique spot for the Cardinals, who are expected to win here and maintain their position as NFC wild card contenders. The Jaguars are in relief mode knowing 0-16 is off the table. They have the league’s worst offense and a bottom-5 defense that really isn’t capable of slowing down one of the league’s least effective offenses. On the other hand the visitors can play some defense and create opportunities for their offense.

 

It’s very tough to pick Arizona on the road where they are just 1-3. They do have a win in Florida (13-10 over Tampa Bay) so that helps. It’s also helpful knowing they have not been on the road since October 13 and have had a bye week since then as well, so fatigue is not much of a factor for them. Plus they just played two bad teams (Atlanta, Houston) so it’s not like they are physically beaten up. Jacksonville came out of their bye week fired up and won at Tennessee. It marked the first time they scored ore than 20 points in a game this year, but the eighth time they allowed 24-plus points.

 

If Arizona can score at least 20, and they should, it’s going to be hard for Jacksonville to beat them. I can’t trust an offense with Chad Henne at the helm and with limited receiving options to light up a pretty good, and extremely motivated offense. It’s going to be a tight, ugly game I think. Clearly the Jags want to win for the home fans for the first time, but I think they will do so at least once in a string of December home tilts (Houston, Buffalo, Tennessee) anyway. I like the Cardinals here just a little: Arizona 23, Jacksonville 20 (JAX +10/over 41)

 

Oakland (3-6) @ Houston (2-7): It looks like the Raiders will be without Terrelle Pryor here, so it’s going to be Matt McGloin on the road against a vicious defense. On the flip side, Case Keenum is playing with house money against a defense that has for the most part been good, but as Philadelphia proved can certainly be exposed. I see this as a pretty similar outcome to that one actually. It’s hard to call for blowouts, and I’m not going to because they rarely happen. This feels like that kind of game though.

 

The Texans are frustrated on defense. They have the “title” of the best defense in the league on paper, but with this record does it matter? Taking advantage of a green quarterback and perhaps pitching a shutout would make them feel better about this lost season just a little. The Raiders are lacking offensive playmakers, and Pryor had the ability to create on the move. McGloin is not that kind of guy, and behind a really shaky offensive line with injury issues I can’t see him getting out of J.J. Watt’s way. Rashad Jennings is fine at running back if he had a lane, but again I can’t see it here.

 

Houston’s scoring defense hasn’t been great. They gave up 27 points the past two weeks, and other than a 17-16 loss at Kansas City have allowed at least 23 points every week. They won’t give up nearly that much here. Oakland has struggled to reach 21 points in games this season. Once they got over that mark (27-17 win over San Diego) but some of their scoring has come on defense to boot. The Texans know all about the pick-six, but Matt Schaub can’t throw them from the sidelines. I like the Raiders to stay in it for just a while and that’s about it. Keenum is an excitable player and he will fire up an offense that just lost Arian Foster and has Ben Tate playing hurt: Houston 28, Oakland 16 (HOU -7/over 41)

 

Baltimore (4-5) @ Chicago (5-4): This is a game I can flip a coin on. Which team wants this more? The Bears are frustrated having lost a fight to gain control of their division. The Ravens are invigorated having just stayed alive in their division. Is there a carryover effect? I can’t believe how bad Baltimore is on offense (No. 29) and I understand losing players like Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta impacts that, but this much? Their defense is average without the leadership of Ray Lewis and company. Chicago has a top-10 offense, but has struggled on defense (No. 29) making this a pretty even match.

 

Josh McCown returns at quarterback for the Bears and that might not be a terrible thing. He has two great wide receivers and a great running back behind an improved offensive line going up against the aforementioned defense that can be had. I think the home team can line up and go to town on these guys if they are up for it. Meanwhile I look at the Ravens and see a team without the edge that comes with striving for a title. They lack the killer instinct. Last week was nice, but it was also at home and the urgency was there. This week on the road against a non-conference foe I don’t see it.

 

Baltimore is just 1-4 on the road and while all of the games since the NFL season opener (49-27 loss at Denver) were close, they found ways to lose. In fact, in the really tight games this year (6 points) they are 2-4. Chicago is only 3-2 at home, and they are 3-2 in similarly close games. In fact only one of their games has been decided by more than 8 points, a 40-23 win at Pittsburgh. I actually don’t think this game is going to be all that close other than the final score. Home field wasn’t enough last week, but Jay Cutler screwed things up by playing hurt. This week it’s huge: Chicago 27, Baltimore 21 (CHI -2.5/over 43.5)

 

Cleveland (4-5) @ Cincinnati (6-4): The Bengals really blew it last week, the last two weeks actually. If not for a pair of painful OT losses this team would be looking at an 8-2 record thinking about home field in the AFC playoffs up until the title game. Instead, they have let the lower level of their division drag them down and more than a single home game now seems improbable. The Browns are hoping to claw their way back into the mix, and as it stands today they control their destiny in the AFC North. It’s strange to say that about a team with a losing record, but it’s true. If they win out this division is theirs and no one can do a thing about it.

 

Let’s be clear, I’m not calling for that with a team led by Jason Campbell, but it speaks to the mindset of these guys heading into a game against their rivals. It’s not often this game means something. I don’t remember the last time it did, definitely before the Browns moved to Baltimore. Cleveland comes in rested off the bye week while Cincinnati has to be winded after two road games that went to overtime. The fatigue edge is definitely in favor of the visitors who don’t have to travel far for this one obviously.

 

On the season, the Bengals have been solid on defense. Only one team has scored more than 24 points on them, and they won the game (34-30 over Green Bay). In regulation they have limited six of their foes to no more than 20 points. The Browns give up more. Six teams have hit them for 23-plus points and it’s tough for their offense to keep up. They are 2-4 in those contests. Their offense has scored more than 17 points just three times all year, and they won all of those games. Cincinnati’s offense has scored more than 21 points on just four occasions, all wins, and only twice were they held below 17.

 

One of those was a 17-6 loss in the first meeting. Brian Hoyer was the opposing quarterback that day, and he had himself a day completing 65.8% of his throws for 269 yards and 2 scores. Neither team ran the ball well; both around 3 yards a carry, and the visitors were hurt by a 2-0 turnover deficit. This time I expect the turnover battle to go to the home team again. Campbell is a steady quarterback, but under pressure in a big game I think he tries to stick one in there at a crucial moment. These teams are relatively healthy, and in a battle of top-5 defenses the better offense has the edge. That’s a clear edge to the Bengals (No. 8) over the Browns (No. 25) and the revenge factor is in play. I’m going home team: Cincinnati 19, Cleveland 14 (CLE +7/under 42.5)

 

San Diego (4-5) @ Miami (4-5): A bounce here or there and both of these teams might be fighting for a lot more than the second wild card no one seems to want in the AFC. The Dolphins are awful on offense, and the loss of two starting linemen in a locker room scandal has made matters worse in a hurry. The Chargers are awful on defense, and not even a rejuvenated offense has been able to help them avoid a losing record thus far. After the bye week, close losses have put them in a position to need to win on the road, here and next in Kansas City, for any shot to remain in contendion.

 

The road has been uneven for the Chargers. They have won in Florida (24-6 over Jacksonville) and are a respectable 2-3. The Dolphins are only 2-2 at home and the Martin/Incognito distraction seems to have derailed their season. Being out of the primetime spotlight after TNF/MNF the past two weeks should help, but Carolina is on deck ready to knock them out of contention if they lose this one. The pressure is definitely on here and I expect a playoff atmosphere. Who is up for it?

 

Miami’s offense has been steadily mediocre all year. They have scored 17 points in every game, but never more than 27. In fact six times they scored 19-24 points, which is scarily consistent, but in a high scoring league it’s tough to win a lot of those games. They are 3-3 in those games. San Diego’s offense sparked early positing 28, 33 and 30 points in September games, but has failed to top 24 in their five games since and are just 2-3.

 

It’s really a race to 24 for me. The Chargers have given up at least 27 points five times this season. Since opening with a 23-10 win at Cleveland, the Dolphins have allowed 20 points in every game. Since I feel like we’re looking at a game in the low twenties on both sides, and one that is close I generally look at quarterback and home field. I love me some Philip Rivers in a game he needs to win, and I don’t think all that much of the home field here so I’m taking the Bolts: San Diego 24, Miami 21 (SD +0/under 45.5)

 

Green Bay (5-4) @ NY Giants (3-6): Do you believe in miracles? The Giants might pretty soon. Three straight wins have them feeling confident, and now they get the Packers with a third-stringer in Scott Tolzien. Granted, Tolzien threw the ball around a bit last week off the bench, but when teams start preparing it gets a little more difficult. Just ask Matt Flynn. Plus, it’s not like the Packers are shutting anyone down defensively having allowed 31, 27 and 27 the past three outings.

 

New York would love to do some scoring. Since their opening 36-31 loss at Dallas, their high water mark was last week’s 24-20 win over Oakland. The defense has played better of late, giving up 34 points total the last three games. They are also fairly rested with a bye week to start this month and only one road game (in Philadelphia) since October 10. Andre Brown returned to spark the running game and balance their offense.

 

I think this is a battle of running games. The defenses are both average, and quite frankly while there are plenty of receiving options neither passing game is going to dominate in this stadium I don’t think. Green Bay gives up a higher average rushing (4.2 per carry to 3.7) but they have a massive edge offensively (4.8 to 3.2). The return of Brown helps because Eli Manning had been strictly in passing mode with no threat of a running game. It’s close, and I guess I like a good underdog story. If the Giants don’t turn it over they are a lot better and eventually they will quit giving it away: NY Giants 24, Green Bay 20 (GB +6.5/over 41)

 

Minnesota (2-7) @ Seattle (9-1): All things being equal the Seahawks would probably let Percy Harvin sit this one out and save his debut for after the bye week. All things aren’t equal, this is the team that traded him away. It’s juicy. He comes in to spark an already competent offense that has absorbed the loss of Sidney Rice fairly well. Naturally the defense is dominant, third in the league in fact. On paper this is the worst mismatch possible just about. The Vikings are bottom-5 on both sides of the ball. They seemingly have no chance.

 

Well, Tampa Bay faced similar odds here recently and stormed out to a 21-0 lead before blowing it and falling in overtime. That works against the visitors here because I’m certain Pete Carroll is going to remind them they need to show up ready to play here. The Vikings are well rested off a TNF win over Washington, and honestly probably don’t feel up to winning too many more games. Heck, if only the Bucs and Jags would step up they might land the first pick and get Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback in the draft.

 

Last week was yet another dismal defensive showing for Minnesota, who just once has held a team below 27 points, a 23-7 loss at the Giants. They are scoring though. In three straight they have scored 23-plus, and have done so six times overall. This is a little bit of a different deal though. I know it was a struggle a couple weeks ago, but Seattle’s defense has now held five teams to no more than 13 points this season, and with the rules the way they are today that’s really tough to do. I see them attacking Adrian “I’m going to rush for 2,500 yards” Peterson all day and then setting their sights on the quarterback. This is a rout: Seattle 34, Minnesota 9 (SEA -12/under 46)

 

San Francisco (6-3) @ New Orleans (7-2): I don’t think the Saints have forgotten what happened to them last year when the 49ers came in here. Two defensive scores helped the visitors secure a 31-21 win that in a lot of ways served notice they would be a force in the NFC. This is not an easy place to play even when the team is down, as they were last year with Sean Payton suspended. Now it’s time for the home team to serve notice they are back, and they want as many games as possible to happen in their dome before hopefully going outdoors for the Super Bowl in New Jersey.

 

I was taken aback by San Francisco’s effort last week. Their offense is just not that good. It’s funny because Alex Smith almost would give them a better chance to win the way things are going for them. Long term they made the right choice going with Colin Kaepernick, but he is in a funk without a lot of help around him. New Orleans has no such problems. They can bring a running back off the shelf and have him drop 145 yards as they did last week while gaining about 10,000 yards and 1,000 first downs on Dallas.

 

The 49ers are in real trouble here unless their defense plays like it did in the meeting last year and scores. Both defenses are now in the top-7, but the only offense with pop is the Saints. Last year the home team couldn’t stop a soul and yet held this offense to 17 points. What do you think they will do this year with Rob Ryan calling the shots? This is really just the second tough road test for San Francisco. They failed the first one losing 29-3 at Seattle. Their other road games were in St. Louis, Tennessee and “Jacksonville” (London) but none of those teams are contenders.

 

It’s amazing how flat San Francisco’s offense can get as this was the third time they failed to score 10 points this year, all of their losses. They put up 31-plus in all of their wins. New Orleans has scored 31-plus in four straight home games and unless Aldon Smith can return to pre-rehab form in a hurry I think they can get there in this one as well. This is a balanced offense and their defense can do some things. The 49ers will try to run on a team giving up 5.0 yards per carry and control the clock. It only lasts so long: New Orleans 31, San Francisco 19 (NO -3/over 47.5)

 

Kansas City (9-0) @ Denver (8-1): This is kind of a big game. Peyton Manning has ankle issues, but his legs would have to fall off to miss this one. Alex Smith is ready to prove to the world he can win a big one, if not truly “the” big one. On one side it’s a prolific offense for the Broncos against a nasty defense for the Chiefs. The more interesting aspect for me is always the flip side with a fairly vanilla Kansas City offense going up against a ho-hum Denver defense. The game is likely won when the Chiefs have the ball, especially considering one of their best receivers Dwayne Bowe is distracted by an off-the-field incident.

 

As the season wears on I tend to slant my picks towards the team that needs it more. If Kansas City loses this game, what does it cost them? They still control their destiny in the AFC West with a rematch two weeks from now in their house, and are in charge of home field advantage as well if they win that one. At worst they get swept by these guys and get a wild card for crying out loud. Denver is in a tougher spot. They would lose control of their destiny in the division, and with a stiff test next week in New England where Manning has failed many times in the past, it’s not inconceivable dropping this game won’t lead to them being 8-4 into the final quarter of the season. They want to win now and hope the ankle holds up.

 

Everyone knows Denver can score, at record pace in fact. Last week they were “held” to a season-low 28 by a San Diego defense that isn’t this dynamic. So it’s possible to keep them down. Their defense has been on the field a lot in situations where they were protecting big leads, so allowing 19-plus every week isn’t that bad. Kansas City’s high water mark offensively is 28 in their seaso opener, but the defense has yet to allow anyone past 17 points. That’s going to change this week. I’m going to let the averages do the talking and expect a tight, but not thrilling outcome here: Denver 27, Kansas City 20 (KC +9.5/under 50)

 

New England (7-2) @ Carolina (6-3): The “Super Bowl Preview” title is thrown around a lot when winning teams from opposing conferences hook up, but I don’t think either team is getting there this year. This is more about the Patriots letting everyone know they are still pretty good, and the Panthers hoping to prove last week in San Francisco was no fluke. Defensively, Carolina is second in the league and ready to put that ranking on the line in front of a national audience. New England has their offense in order, however, with Shane Vereen returning and Rob Gronkowski back in the mix.

 

This is a tough game to call. New England is rested off the bye week and has had plenty of time to prepare for a fairly limited offense. Of course, the Jets put up 30 on them earlier this year, and the Falcons (23) and Bills (21) also posted good totals in other road games. Offensively, they are just hard to stop. Other than the first game with the Jets (13-10 win) and a loss at Cincinnati (13-6) they have put up 23-plus points every week. I just don’t think this is another 10-9 type game. The Patriots are going to score. Can the Panthers keep up when they do?

 

It feels like running teams and teams that can pressure the quarterback wreck New England. However, I’m big on fatigue in the NFL. Carolina has played games the past six weeks, four of them on the road and are just back from a trip to California. They have to be worn out. I think it will show in the fourth quarter, and I believe in Tom Brady with targets he can rely on a lot more than Cam Newton trying to do too much on national television: New England 28, Carolina 24 (NE +2.5/over 46)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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