NFL Predictions 2013: Week 17
Sunday, December 29 2013
Contributed by: norcalfella
When will the pain end? I suppose I can focus on the positive, finishing 11-5 straight up (155-84-1 overall) putting me tenth on the media leaderboard (eliminating the two computers). However, I made up no ground by going 8-8 against the spread (111-123-5 overall) and 8-8 on the over/under (121-117-4 overall) meaning at -8 it’s going to take a whale of a week for me to beat Vegas in the regular season. I will also need to be almost perfect to reach my annual goal of picking 170 winners. All of this in the toughest week of the season to predict no less, so wish me luck.
Cleveland (4-11) @ Pittsburgh (7-8): It will take me too long to figure out all of the wild card scenarios, so I’ll limit them to which teams are still in it and the Steelers are. They get a tough draw with the rival Browns who will be coming at them with the kitchen sink hoping to spoil their playoff hopes. Sadly, their offensive sink is filled with a lot of players who should be put down the drain other than breakout sensation Josh Gordon. Dick LeBeau is going to drape coverage on the standout receiver to be sure, and it’s unclear if dynamic tight end Jordan Cameron will play either.
Of course, this could be a slugfest between to gritty defenses in inclement weather so maybe an upset is possible. I don’t see it that way. Ben Roethlisberger is a savvy vet at this point in his career, and has a revved up rookie back in Le’Veon Bell to help balance his offense. A month ago this one went to them 27-11 and I don’t think too much has changed since then other than the stakes. The key number I’m looking at is 27. The Steelers have quietly put up consistently high point totals. Over their past 8 games, just twice were they held below 27 and it wasn’t by that much (20, 23). They are scoring, and as a result winning (6-2 record).
The Browns are quite a bit more erratic on offense, and given their lack of skill at the skill positions that is to be expected. In their past 7 games (I’m throwing out the three prior to that scoring a grand total of 47) this team has posted 24-plus points four times including three straight (all losses) but also 20, 11 and then last week 13. Conversely, their defense has allowed 24-plus in six straight. It’s pretty simple math I’m looking at here to come to this final score: Pittsburgh 28, Cleveland 20 (PIT -6.5/over 44)
Washington (3-12) @ NY Giants (6-9): This won’t be the last game at MetLife Stadium this season, but it will be the final one featuring either team that call this field home. New York has rallied nicely from their 0-6 start, going 6-3 including last week’s 23-20 win at Detroit who entered the game with playoff aspirations. All season their offense has been stuck in low gear, but once the defense quit giving up huge point totals week after week they started to win some games. In their last 9 games the only times they allowed over 20 points were their 3 losses (24-21, 37-14, 23-0). In a high scoring league their games have been relatively low scoring of late. Just once has the total been over 45 over this nine-game stretch.
The Redskins never stopped having problems on defense. Every team save the Raiders has put up 24-plus points on them. Last week it looked like another would be held below that mark, but Dallas turned in a late touchdown to win 24-23. If you’re giving up that much every week it’s tough to win on a regular basis. It’s even tougher when the offense goes four in a row without scoring more than 17 points during one stretch. What a difference a year makes. Last season they started 3-6 and didn’t lose again in the regular season. This season they started 3-6 and might not win again in the regular season.
In the first meeting on December 1, the Giants sweated out a 24-17 win, but that was against a team led by Robert Griffin III. Now it’s Kirk Cousins auditioning for potential suitors, and as for receiving options there aren’t many around Pierre Garcon who is having a monster season. For all their struggles, I don’t feel as though New York has quit on their season and it showed last week. Washington put up a fight as well, but now they have to do it on the road against a team with a bit of motivation trying to avoid a double-digit loss season. I like Eli’s side just a little in this matchup because I don’t see him getting pressured to death as he has most of the season. If that’s not the case he won’t be turning it over. Look away: NY Giants 23, Washington 16 (NYG -3.5/under 46)
Baltimore (8-7) @ Cincinnati (10-5): This is a really tough game to call. The Bengals are in sort of a weird spot. They would like to win and hope for a favorable playoff seeding, but ultimately might be better off resting up for their playoff game in a week because the odds are against them improving and definitely against earning a bye week. The Ravens are backed up against the wall, needing to win and get help in order to defend their championship in the tournament. It’s hard to play a team faced with that scenario. Baltimore was up against it last week on their home field and got creamed by New England 41-7. It’s hard to know how they will react to being blown out because it hasn’t happened to them since week 1 when they lost 49-27 to Denver in the NFL season opener.
Thinking about that, however, you start to realize the Ravens aren’t as bad as their 8-7 record might indicate. Five of their losses have come by 3, 2, 3, 6 and 3 points. Turning a couple of those around would have them in a much different outlook. Of course, five of their wins are also by no more than 3 points so they have been in a ton of close games with split results. The Bengals are 2-3 in games decided by a field goal or less and 4-3 when that extends to a touchdown margin. They have blown past Cleveland (41-20) Indianapolis (42-28) and Minnesota (42-14) in their last three home games and going up against a team that just allowed 41 it doesn’t look too good for the visitors does it?
Something tells me Cincinnati isn’t going all out here. Yes, they are trying to secure the three seed but how crucial is that really? Either you have to beat Peyton Manning first, then Tom Brady second on their fields or do it in the opposite order. It’s not a big deal. Baltimore needs this. They are on death’s door and there are a lot of players with a ring hoping to defend their title in a playoff game. I have this strange feeling they play out of their minds here against an opponent laying back. It’s one of those crazy week 17 results. Under normal circumstances I should love the Bengals to rush the snot out of Joe Flacco, shut down the running game and walk away winners here. Call it a hunch, but I don’t see it going down that way: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 21 (BAL +7/over 43.5)
Houston (2-13) @ Tennessee (6-9): The Titans have a chance to become the only team in the league to avenge a loss to the Texans this season. That’s because their only other win came over a non-divisional foe, San Diego, and don’t you think the Chargers would love to play that game again? Tennessee has done their share of losing this season as well, twice losing three straight. Half the time their defense shows up, eight times limiting opponents to no more than 22 points and they have gone 6-2 in those games. You can figure out what happens when the flood gates open.
Pretty much all season Houston has failed to keep opponents from scoring in bunches. Only two teams have failed to put up 24 against them, and they actually lost both of those games anyway. Their offense has failed to top 20 points in four of the past five weeks and the one time they did was during a 34-31 loss. Any way you cut it, this team finds ways to lose games. Now they are in a position to secure the first overall draft pick, likely Louisville quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, by losing one more game. People say this doesn’t happen, but a franchise beset by poor quarterback play has to see the light at the end of the tunnel. Matt Schaub set an NFL record by allowing an interception to be returned for a touchdown in four straight games. Enough is enough.
I see Tennessee wanting to win this game for Mike Munchak. They are a few breaks away from having been in position to steal a wild card this year, and that’s with starting quarterback Jake Locker out most of the season. Ryan Fitzpatrick has come in and played well in spots, but is way too loose with the football. This week I don’t think it matters. Houston doesn’t want to tackle anyway here. Chris Johnson isn’t CJ2K anymore, but he will come at them here looking to exploit a team playing under an interim coach that just wants to go home. They weren’t competitive last week when Peyton Manning lit up the record book against them, and I don’t expect much this week: Tennessee 28, Houston 17 (TEN -7/over 44)
Jacksonville (4-11) @ Indianapolis (10-5): The Colts are in a similar spot to what the Bengals face, only their opponent has no playoff aspirations. By winning, they can shoot for the third seed or even dream about a bye week if the Patriots lose. I don’t see them being all that excited about this considering the Bills are unlikely to make noise at New England. Indy has done good things in December, winning three times including last week in Kansas City. Whispers are that the Chiefs held back though, looking ahead to a potential first-round playoff matchup. Strange things happen in late season games.
One of those odd occurrences might be hobbled Maurice Jones-Drew going off, hoping to earn himself some money in the process. The Colts have played well on defense this month other than a 42-28 loss at Cincinnati. This isn’t on the road and it certainly isn’t a team with the offensive skill of the Bengals. It showed the first time around, way back in September when the Jags were whacked 37-3 by these guys. Jacksonville had just 14 first downs and 205 total yards while turning it over 3 times. Of course, Blaine Gabbert was the quarterback in that one and he took 4 sacks.
I sort of know what to expect from the Colts at this point. After a shaky November their offense has settled down, and the defense seems capable of holding down teams without a lot of punch. The Jags make a habit of allowing 20-plus points and don’t get past 20 very often (three times) so barring something odd I see a sluggish win for Andrew Luck and company. Maybe they give Trent Richardson a heavy work load just to see what they’ve got going forward. Either way, they keep it simple: Indianapolis 23, Jacksonville 14 (JAX +11.5/under 45.5)
NY Jets (7-8) @ Miami (8-7): The “last week” theory is in full effect here. The Dolphins were last seen getting shut out 19-0 at Buffalo and Ryan Tannehill was sacked seemingly every time he dropped back to pass. New York rumbled past Cleveland 24-13 for their second win in their past three games. So are the Jets going to come down to Florida and rain on their playoff parade? They would love to, but let’s look back farther than last week. I’m interested in December 1 when these teams met up north and the Dolphins won 23-3. It was a dominating performance. They led 25-10 in first downs and 453-177 in total yards. Matt Simms came on for the ineffective Geno Smith.
I don’t know if there’s enough that’s changed since then to impact this result by three touchdowns. Both teams can get after the quarterback and certainly a dominant pass rush changes everything, as it did up in Buffalo a week ago. At home, with the playoffs on the line I just don’t think Miami is going to be the same team. They have made it through a challenging season dealing with the Martin/Incognito situation and after battling to three straight wins I think last week was pure exhaustion. Now they know there is no tomorrow and will put it all on the line. I’m not projecting them to earn the wild card with this victory, but they will play like a playoff team here: Miami 24, NY Jets 13 (MIA -5.5/under 41.5)
Detroit (7-8) @ Minnesota (4-10-1): The Metrodome is closing down, and while it doesn’t have the championship pedigree of Candlestick Park there will certainly be some hoopla surrounding the final game. Unfortunately, Adrian Peterson might not be able to play, and the other huge star on the opposite side Calvin Johnson is also unsure to suit up. I would love for this game to have some meaning in the playoff picture, but the Lions choked against the Giants last week. It was their third loss in a row, and fifth out of six. If Jim Schwartz isn’t fired for this I don’t know what it would take to get him canned.
Other than pounding a then-helpless Packers team on Thanksgiving, this team hasn’t won since November 10. Three of their losses came against teams who currently have a losing record. They went from 6-3 to out of the hunt. Minnesota started their season 1-7, but has since gone 3-3-1 including wins over two teams who will be playing for NFC division titles (Chicago, Philadelphia). Their defense can’t stop anyone, but until last week the offense was on a pretty nice roll with eight straight 20-plus point efforts.
It has been a really long time since the first meeting way back on week 1. Adrian Peterson opened the scoring with a 78-yard run, but was held to 15 yards on his other 17 carries. Christian Ponder was the starting quarterback, and this time it’s Matt Cassel. Matthew Stafford had a huge game throwing for 357 yards and Reggie Bush touched the ball 25 times totaling 191 yards during a 34-24 win. I don’t see the same kind of offensive output in the rematch. Bush was benched last week and has been hobbled a bit down the stretch. Megatron might not play, and honestly I doubt he will with nothing on the line. Tight end Brandon Pettigrew is out. Stafford is slumping. All of it adds up.
On the other side, the Vikings are fired up to close down this stadium the right way. I’m not sure who will be running the ball for them, but lately it hasn’t seemed to matter. Jared Allen wants to bid farewell to this stadium, and probably this team, with a bang. In their last two road games Detroit’s defense has allowed 37 and 34 points to the Pennsylvania teams. They have spent most of the second half of the season at home, but it hasn’t helped. On the road in a hostile dome with screaming fans I don’t see their energy level being high enough to win a game like this: Minnesota 28, Detroit 24 (MIN -3/over 51)
Carolina (11-4) @ Atlanta (4-11): I am having a hard time with this one. I know the Panthers need it badly. They are fighting for the bye week. The Falcons are done, but it didn’t stop them from almost spoiling the closing of Candlestick Park against the defending NFC champs a week ago. I get a weird vibe on this one, even though the first meeting went to Carolina in convincing fashion 34-10. It was outdoors where Atlanta has been known to struggle. This one is in their dome. The Panthers have split their dome games, waxing Minnesota 35-10 and getting drubbed 31-13 earlier this month in New Orleans. Atlanta has mostly played well at home this season, other than a 33-10 loss to Seattle, the league’s best team.
One big factor is Steve Smith being out. The Panthers aren’t explosive on offense and he’s a key to their limited passing attack. Without him, the defense can really key on the powerful running game. I just don’t see Carolina running these guys over. Some teams quit in the final week when they are out of it. I don’t think Atlanta goes out that way in tight end Tony Gonzalez’s final game of his illustrious career. Offensively, the Falcons have plenty of punch now that Roddy White is healthy. Even Steven Jackson has shown a little spark. I think they play remarkably well in this game and put a major scare in the bye week plans of their division rivals, ultimately falling because Cam Newton takes over on the final drive: Carolina 27, Atlanta 24 (ATL +6.5/over 45.5)
Tampa Bay (4-11) @ New Orleans (10-5): The Saints have it right in front of them to make the playoffs, they just need to win and it’s done. They can also slide in the back door if San Francisco beats Arizona. I’m not sure that happens and they aren’t either so their energy is focused on securing this win. The first meeting was in week 2 so there isn’t much to draw from a gritty 16-14 win by New Orleans. It was during an 0-8 start for the Bucs who have since gone 4-3. To put that in perspective, over the same stretch the Saints are also 4-3.
On defense I still think New Orleans is a little overrated, but this stadium and their offense combine to help them look better than they are. Speaking of home, they have spent four of the past five weeks on the road. It certainly could take its toll late in the year since their bye week was early (week 7). The offense definitely slowed down on the road, failing to top 17 points in any of those games and losing three of them. It will be interesting to see if they return to the form that has seen them put up 31, 38, 35, 49 and 31 points in various home games this season.
I wouldn’t say Tampa Bay is intimidated to come in here, having almost won in Seattle despite coming into the game 0-7. They are just 1-6 on the road though and offensively have been stuck in neutral of late scoring 6, 14 and 13 points sandwiched around their 27-6 win over Buffalo. I’m not sure their offense is capable of a surge in this spot. It’s weird because while I don’t think the team has quit on the season it might look like it on the field this week. I see the Saints blowing the game open early and cruising home. The Bucs lack the firepower to stay with them, and certainly aren’t going to rally from a big deficit: New Orleans 31, Tampa Bay 14 (NO -11/under 47.5)
Buffalo (6-9) @ New England (11-4): The Patriots have the benefit of knowing the early results before taking the field here, and it could make a huge difference. If Indianapolis and Cincinnati both win, there is a lot of pressure on them to take care of business because it’s the difference between a bye week and the four seed. Should both of those teams lose, a week off is guaranteed. Of course, the top seed is still within reach with a win coupled with Denver losing at Oakland in another late game, but that’s a stretch.
I tend to think their attention is firmly on this game against a team they had to scrape past 23-21 the first time around. I know the Pats are 11-4, but they have pulled a few rabbits out of their hat this season and could easily be 8-7 or 7-8. In the season opening win over Buffalo, New England trailed into the fourth quarter and failed to score a touchdown in the second half. A pair of field goals, the second coming with five seconds remaining, got them the win. They did have a big edge in total yards (431-286) and first downs (26-16) but it was rookie E.J. Manuel’s first start as a pro.
A different rookie will start the rematch because Manuel is hurt. Thad Lewis gets the call and has nothing to lose in this spot. Buffalo has won two in a row, and three of their past five so with a good start anything can happen. New England seems to let bad teams hang around. Last week the Pats finally turned in a blowout, 41-7 over Baltimore. It was their fourth win by double digits this season. Buffalo has lost by double digits five times, including three in a row in the middle of the year. Their offense has been erratic to say the least. I know they have nothing to lose, and a pass rush is the best way to beat Brady, but I’m not buying them as a serious threat here with Lewis at the helm: New England 28, Buffalo 20 (NE -7.5/over 46.5)
St. Louis (7-8) @ Seattle (12-3): The Rams are fighting to get out of mediocrity and could send a message with a win here that they are a team to be reckoned with in 2014. Finishing 8-8 is a good way to salvage a last place finish. They haven’t gotten the job done on the road (2-5) or inside the NFC West (1-4) and that’s why they are out of the hunt. They did cause considerable problems for the Seahawks in the first meeting, falling 14-9 on MNF in their dome. Now the venue changes and that’s a huge shift.
It has been a nice close to the season for St. Louis winning four of their past six games including a road kill of Indy and nice wins over contenders Chicago and New Orleans. This is a different animal. Seattle is coming off the first home loss of Russell Wilson’s young career, and knows this game is the key to securing home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They want it badly. The only thing standing in their way is run defense. Zac Stacy is going to come right at them, right up the middle. Defensively I expect Pete Carroll to clog the lanes and dare Kellen Clemens to beat his dynamic secondary. Last week Arizona had Carson Palmer throwing to Michael Floyd and Larry Fitzgerald. This is a different deal.
On offense the Seahawks have sputtered of late posting 17, 23 and 10 the past three weeks. Slumps happen, but I expect an end to it this week because I look for their defense to create scoring opportunities and possibly score some points via turnovers. This is kind of an avalanche game. The Rams come in with hopes of scoring the upset, but once they get punched in the mouth everything changes. I look for the Seahawks to keep pouring it on and never let them breath: Seattle 24, St. Louis 10 (SEA -11.5/under 43)
Green Bay (7-7-1) @ Chicago (8-7): This game is going to be epic. In the first meeting Aaron Rodgers went down early and seemingly the season went down with him. The Bears held the Packers to 17 first downs and won 27-20 behind Josh McCown who was sacked just once and didn’t turn the ball over. Seneca Wallace came off the bench and completed only 11 passes, taking 4 sacks and throwing an interception. Now Rodgers is back, and on the other side it’s Jay Cutler who missed the first meeting due to injury. Can there be more drama with a division title on the line?
As interesting as the quarterback showdown is, the run defenses are the worst in the league. The focus should really be on rookie Eddie Lacy and stud veteran Matt Forte. Those are the guys more likely to decide the result. Chicago just got embarrassed at Philadelphia 54-11 in a game that really didn’t matter to the Eagles, but cost them a chance to clinch the division. After scoring 45 and 38 points the previous two weeks suddenly their offense looked ordinary. I don’t expect them to be flat here. The defense obviously is in bad shape too. It was the third time in a row allowing 28-plus points and the seventh time on the season.
Despite losing 38-31 to Pittsburgh last week, it feels as though Green Bay is the team of destiny here. They squeezed out a 22-21 win over Atlanta and shocked Dallas 37-36 with a huge comeback in their previous two efforts. Somehow the defense allowing 40, 36 and 38 points in recent weeks is a moot point. Well, not totally. It still matters that they have held just one opponent below 26 points in the past nine weeks. The offense needs to click in this game to keep up. I just can’t see a scenario without a lot of points here. The running games are going to put up yards and unless the teams play keep-away draining the clock to limit possessions it should be a shootout. Who you got? I think if Rodgers is playing, he’s healthy and they have a plan. That’s good enough for me: Green Bay 37, Chicago 35 (CHI +3/over 52)
San Francisco (11-4) @ Arizona (10-5): I wouldn’t mind skipping this game. The Cardinals have to win or they are out of it, but they also need New Orleans to lose. The 49ers are in the playoffs no matter what, and have only seeding at stake. It’s certainly possible Seattle stumbles, putting them in position to earn a bye week as the first or second seed. Barring that result, it’s just a matter of five versus six and I don’t think they care. Motivation is a big factor in the week 17. If a team doesn’t need to win, they often don’t. I’m not sure what kind of effort they put forth on the road in a hostile environment knowing they have a meaningful game to play next week if things go the way most expect them to.
It has been a brutal season for Arizona. They are 8-2 outside the rugged NFC West, a better mark than San Francisco (7-3) but way back in week 1 stumbled in St. Louis losing 27-24. If not for that loss, this game would take on a different meaning. The same can be said for losing at the 49ers 32-20 earlier in the year. They piled up 403 total yards, but turned it over four times. The following week they lost to Seattle 34-22, but have only lost once in eight games since. Last week they avenged the loss to the Seahawks, handing them their first home loss in forever. Now they have to face the 49ers/Seahawks doubleheader again and physically that’s tough.
However, I fall back on the 49ers not playing for much. They are making the trip on a short week having scraped past Atlanta on MNF. It wasn’t an inspiring performance. The offense is getting better with Michael Crabtree back in the mix, but Vernon Davis didn’t catch a ball against the Falcons. Beating the 49ers is possible with a quarterback who can get the ball down the field to big receivers. Carson Palmer is capable of that if he’s not under too much pressure. In this stadium under this set of circumstances I think he’s fine. It’s a flat outing for a team that needs to rest: Arizona 27, San Francisco 20 (AZ +1/over 41.5)
Denver (12-3) @ Oakland (4-11): This game is all for show. The Broncos want to secure the top seed in the AFC, but they also want to get Peyton Manning into the record book for as long as possible. He might say he thinks Tom Brady is going to break his record “next year” but if he has another huge game here I’m not sure the record goes down until the schedule is expanded to 18 games. He just got a team heading nowhere, Houston, and took them apart. This is a rivalry game, so anything is possible but I think the Raiders are in trouble.
There are rumors of “Chucky” (Jon Gruden) coming back if Dennis Allen is fired. He might not get the hook, but it doesn’t help that Terrelle Pryor’s agent feels as if his client is being “set up to fail” by getting the start here. It’s as dysfunctional under Mark Davis as it was under Al Davis. I’m not sure this team has any leadership or direction at this point, and against a formidable opponent on a mission it’s tough to compete. They weren’t awful last week in San Diego losing 26-13, but it was their third straight loss by double digits and seventh on the season. Denver has won an amazing ten times by double digits, and their other wins were by 8 and 7 points. Yes, their defense has been roughed up, but this is a good spot for them to shine.
Von Miller’s absence certainly hurts Denver’s chance to look good on defense, and there is always a chance Darren McFadden decides to show up in likely his last game as a Raider. I’m sticking with the likely result here. The Broncos are almost a lock to put up 35-plus here and while I don’t know what to expect from the Raiders on offense I know they aren’t going that high. At best they keep this interesting into the third quarter. I doubt it: Denver 38, Oakland 20 (DEN -10.5/over 53.5)
Kansas City (11-4) @ San Diego (8-7): Either this game is going to be huge to the Chargers or meaningless. It’s definitely meaningless to the Chiefs who are the five seed no matter what else happens in week 17. If I know anything about Andy Reid I know he’ll pull all his key starters here. Already we are sure Dwayne Bowe and Tamba Hali are out. Justin Houston is also out, so can we assume Philip Rivers is going to be given all day to throw? Last week it looked to some like Kansas City held back in anticipation of showing too much against a Colts team they might meet in the playoffs. Here I wonder if they show up at all.
The Bolts, even if they have been eliminated with earlier results, are going to want to finish strong. A winning record is on the line for them regardless and that means something. They have gotten here by winning four of their past five including a 41-38 win over the Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. Since then the defense has tightened up, not allowing any of the past four opponents to score more than 20 points. Against a backup offense here I think a similar output is to be expected. For me, this is a blowout any way I cut it up. Rivers is the type of guy who will want to lay it on the reserves. The Chiefs won’t care: San Diego 31, Kansas City 13 (SD -9/under 45)
Philadelphia (9-6) @ Dallas (8-7): Clearly NBC screwed up by not flexing the NFC North winner-take-all into primetime because instead of getting Aaron Rodgers, they will not get Tony Romo. Nothing against Kyle Orton though right? In some ways I think the Cowboys are better off with Orton in the lineup. They have played for the division crown on the final week each of the past two seasons and lost by playing too tight. Now they can’t help being loose because no one expects them to win with a backup quarterback who hasn’t seen regular season action in two years.
The Eagles are like a runaway train at this point. They were derailed in late October being held to 10 points in two losses, including one to the Cowboys, but aside from that have been putting up a lot of points. On the year they have scored 30-plus eight times and 24-plus eleven times. I’m still trying to figure out their 48-30 loss to Minnesota two weeks ago, but that result aside their defense has been playing very well after an atrocious September.
The Cowboys have looked bad on defense since the win over the Eagles. In eight games since all of their opponents have scored 21-plus and four of them scored 31-plus. They allowed Matt Flynn to direct a comeback from down 26-3 at halftime against them, so enough said. As much as I believe Dallas has the offense around Orton to function just fine, defensively the edge is too big for Philadelphia. Plus, Chip Kelly is brash and has his guys playing fearless. The playoffs might be a different story for young quarterback Nick Foles, but he gets it done against a defense that isn’t ready for primetime: Philadelphia 34, Dallas 24 (PHI -6.5/over 52.5)