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Monday, April 23 2018

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8

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Generally speaking I do not like to look back upon previous weeks. Sometimes I do, just to see where I went wrong and why it happened. Picking winners, I went 10-5 last week (66-39-1 overall) while this is not a terrible record I am used to being much better. I had an inclination Jacksonville might straight up beat Cleveland, but it is hard to go with a team that is 0-5. Seattle losing to St. Louis was a fluke. This is what happens when a team with "nothing to lose" goes all-out against the defending champs. I had the Seahawks 27-20, and if not for a wild "trick" return touchdown they win 26-21. No regrets on my part. 

I knew New Orleans and Detroit would be tight. I called it 24-23. It was, but I called it for the Saints who choked away a lead. No big deal. Divisional games are normally close, and I had San Diego over Kansas City 27-20. It was tied at 20, but unfortunately for my pick the Chiefs got the final score to win it 23-20. I lose no sleep over that one. Overall then, I feel good about week 7 when it comes to winners and losers. Against the spread, went 7-8 (58-48 overall) and first off I should have taken the points with Miami. That was dumb. I thought grabbing the points with Carolina was smart given the high spread, but it obviously was a misstep. The same goes for hoping San Francisco, a talented yet banged up team, would cover a big number. It happens. On the over/under I went 10-5 (60-45-1 overall) and there is nothing wrong with that. In total, I now stand +25 against Vegas.

 

San Diego (5-2) @ Denver (5-1): The TNF pairings produced a string of duds at the start of the season, and the blowouts were no doubt turning viewers off. A couple tight finishes have changed the mood and now it gets ramped up another level with a crucial AFC West battle. The two teams had vastly different results in advance of this showdown. Were the Chargers looking ahead when they lost at home to the Chiefs 23-20? I doubt it. As I pointed out before the game, they really only had the edge in the standings because of a weaker schedule. The Broncos are flying high with Peyton Manning as the new TD champ, fresh off wiping the 49ers out on TNF by a 42-17 final. This is certainly a spot for them to come in overconfident against an opponent known for giving them a hard time. 

Last season, these teams met three times in nine weeks, with the visitors winning both of the regular season meetings and Denver taking the rubber game in the playoffs. All of them were decided by one score, as have their last four meetings overall and seven of their last eight. The exception was a 35-24 win by Denver, who has won five of the past six in the series. That's a lot of history to sort through, but in general it seems probable the Broncos win a close game here right? Well, the euphoria of setting the record might create a bit of a hangover for the home team and they are susceptible to a letdown here against a team coming in mad off a loss. 

Both teams are in the bottom 8 running the ball. Denver (3.6, 95.2, 4 TD) misses Knowshon Moreno a bit in that area, and now is without his replacement Montee Ball. Ronnie Hillman is just not the same type of runner and I have to wonder how long it will be until C.J. Anderson or Juwan Thompson get more looks. San Diego (3.0, 89.3, 3 TD) is down a couple backs due to injury, and their spark plug is now Branden Oliver who has a little Darren Sproles in him. Of course, the Broncos can really stop the run (3.3, 74.3, 5 TD) while the Chargers (4.5, 106.9, 3 TD) give up some big runs outside the red zone. Pretty sure Manning is fine throwing it in when he gets in range. San Diego can get pressure on him, and has done well against the pass this year, but forget it in this matchup. Philip Rivers is going to do some damage, but I do not see the upset playing out: Denver 30, San Diego 24 (SD +9/over 50.5)

Detroit (5-2) vs. Atlanta (2-5): Technically the Falcons are the home team here in the continuation of the London series. Neither team gets their "dome" field advantage, but it is not in the conditions they usually struggle with which would be completely outdoors on natural grass surface. I see no real edge here, making this a truly neutral situation similar to a Super Bowl. The Lions might be dreaming about playing in the real Super Bowl the way things are going for them. Last week's comeback over New Orleans is the type of win teams need to make a run to the playoffs. Conversely, Atlanta was swamped at Baltimore 29-7 marking their fourth consecutive loss by double digits. They have two games in the aforementioned unfriendly conditions up next, after a bye week, and honestly could be staring at 2-8 in short order.

I always want to know the motivation of the teams coming in. The Falcons might be mad, but is there anything they can do to stop the bleeding? Their offensive line is a mess, and this is not the opponent to be facing with a front in disarray. The quarterbacks are the showcase here with Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan. The Lions have an awful running game (3.1, 82.4) which is fine in today's NFL because they keep winning. The Falcons get some big runs (4.5, 98.1) and that's about it. The aforementioned line issues are certain to doom them from here on out, and the Lions have the second-best run defense (3.3, 73.4) so good luck. Their offensive output keeps going down and while I expect that trend to end here since there is not much room to go down from 7, they are in bad shape here. I see a snoozer, which is fitting because it starts at sunrise for those watching from California. Sleep through it: Detroit 27, Atlanta 16 (DET -3/under 47)

Minnesota (2-5) @ Tampa Bay (1-5): I suppose anything is possible, but these teams are pretty much out of it. Now it just boils down to which team wants to win a game for pride and build towards 2015 as opposed to collapsing to a double-digit loss campaign. The Bucs have had a week off to digest their second truly embarrassing blowout loss this year, 48-17 to the Ravens. The odd thing about their season is that in the other four games they have been competitive, losing by 6, 2 and 6 points plus a win. If it is a matter of getting overwhelmed and quitting, I like their chances to stay close here. The Vikings have played a game every week and might be a bit fatigued. Their scoring output has been awful in the five losses, averaging 9.0 points. 

New head coaches feel the pressure of a season going in the wrong direction. Mike Zimmer has a pass because of the Adrian Peterson situation, so he might be feeling less heat. Lovie Smith coached in a Super Bowl and more is expected of him. He needs to get this train back on the track, and do it right now. Home field is another plus, so the lean for me is towards Tampa Bay. Minnesota has gotten a spark from Jerick McKinnon in the running game (4.6, 125.3) and the visitors have an edge there. Rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is going to take his lumps, but he is facing the worst pass defense in the league here. Tampa Bay (295.4, 15 TD) has a tough time rushing the passer (9 sacks) and I am in a pickle here as a result. Emotionally I see the Bucs rising in this spot. Statistically, the Vikings are the call. I have to take the slightly more experienced quarterback to evade a ferocious rush (20 sacks) and deliver a few big plays to win it: Tampa Bay 20, Minnesota 19 (MIN +3/under 43) 

Chicago (3-4) @ New England (5-2): I do not want to pick this game. The Patriots are rested after playing on TNF, but in that 27-25 win over the Jets looked vulnerable without Jerod Mayo and Stevan Ridley at their disposal. The Bears are a cool 4-1 on the road, and seem to do the opposite of what the general public expects them to. Plus, a locker room fight could wind up inspiring them to play better. On the road they have scored 24-plus points in all five games. The Patriots have been inconsistent, but seem poised to start scoring on a regular basis after the past few games. 

If you had to guess which team is first in pass defense, how many tries would it take you to answer New England (208.0, 18 sacks)? Probably a handful, if not more. Quarterback pressure is the key to beating Tom Brady, and the visitors have 19 sacks of their own, although their secondary is shaky to be sure. I think the Bears can get the better of the action on the ground, especially with Matt Forte on their side. Shane Vereen looked great last week, but he is not an elite talent. The quarterbacks are of course center stage here, and Jay Cutler is just not good enough. I think he keeps this one close and it could go either way. I am taking the team with the better plan, because I like the odds: New England 28, Chicago 24 (CHI +7/over 50) 

St. Louis (2-4) @ Kansas City (3-3): These cities almost matched up in the World Series, but will have to settle for a critical game to determine the path for each side the remainder of this season. The Rams are coming off a mind blowing win over the Seahawks that has the potential to change their course if they can follow it up with a victory here. If not, given the difficulty of their remaining slate, it is over. The Chiefs realized their potential last week at the Chargers, proving they are not exactly what their record says they are. Their aim here is to remain focused and become a winning team in the standings. 

The venue is key here. As a dome team, St. Louis is at a disadvantage outdoors, and Arrowhead Stadium rocks. Hardly tested quarterback Austin Davis has a couple road games under his belt (Tampa Bay, Philadelphia) but this is a tough draw. He needs help from the running game and might get it because Kansas City's run defense (4.7, 117.0) has given up some yardage. However, they have yet to allow a rushing score. Unfortunately, St. Louis is awful against the run (4.8, 145.0) and with Jamaal Charles and Knile Davis coming at them this is a big problem. Tre Mason was a flashy presence last week, but now the surprise factor is gone. The Chiefs have a better rushing offense, and should easily win the yardage battle on the ground. Their pass defense is good enough to carry the day as well, and while they lack options in their passing attack it will not matter: Kansas City 23, St. Louis 14 (KC -6/under 44.5) 

Seattle (3-3) @ Carolina (3-3-1): Sometimes when I look at a matchup I immediately start to think about one result being incomprehensible and it drives my thought process trying to project what will happen. This is an excellent example. Can the defending champions really drop a third straight game and have a losing record at 3-4? Barring another tie, hey it has already happened once this season, the opposite will result in the Panthers leading the NFC South with a losing mark. There is also the matter of Carolina looking ahead to next week's crucial game against New Orleans. If they blow both of these games, leading the division could become 3-5-1 wondering what went wrong in a hurry. 

Right now, the Panthers are bruised up. They were clocked in Green Bay last week. The defense has allowed precisely 37 or 38 points in four of the past five games, and during that stretch their only win was 31-24. Are they capable of winning in a shootout against this defense? Well, the Seahawks are having issues on defense, so possibly. They have yet to hold a team below 16 points all season, and three teams have scored 28-plus on them. Last year, in 19 games including the playoffs only once did they allow more than 24 points and thirteen times they held teams to no more than 17. This is a new year. We are not going to see a repeat of their last visit here to open the 2013 campaign, a 12-7 win by Seattle. 

Taking out a player like Greg Hardy changes the dynamics of a defense, and Carolina is getting run over (5.3, 137.6) this year. On paper Seattle is still stout (3.2, 85.5) but their defensive mystique seems to be gone. It is kind of like Mike Tyson after the Buster Douglas fight. Teams know they can get some points off them, and even if Richard Sherman says otherwise they know it is okay to throw at him. Sticking to the run, the respective rush offenses are on the opposite sides of the stat sheet. Whether it is Russell Wilson scrambling or Marshawn Lynch going "beast mode" I like their chances to run them over here. Their defense has only 2 interceptions this year. Look for them to increase that number and end the losing streak: Seattle 24, Carolina 21 (CAR +5.5/over 44.5) 

Buffalo (4-3) @ NY Jets (1-6): Well, this is one of those games they have to play. It does not mean anyone outside of the respective fan bases will want to watch it. Kyle Orton helped the Bills pull out a win last week over the Vikings, and a win here would be a huge shot in the arm because it would leave them at 5-3 with a bye week to rest up for the second half. Their November slate is not very daunting, and quite frankly with sound play they have a serious chance to be 7-5 or 8-4 before the final month of mostly, they do play Oakland, daunting games. Is this a contender? If they are, this is the game they must win.

The Jets, are not contenders. Why are they trading for Percy Harvin? The only reason I can come up with is to find out once and for all if Geno Smith is their quarterback of the future. I do not believe he is, but this gives him another option in the passing game once Harvin learns the offense. Their issues are on both sides of the ball though. On defense, where Rex Ryan is focused, they have allowed 24-plus to every opponent since beating the Raiders 19-14 in the season opener, a team starting a rookie quarterback. I have no idea how this is going to go. Buffalo just lost two running backs. They could unleash Bryce Brown, or ride Anthony Dixon. Either way, it is going to be tough sledding against New York (3.6, 88.0). 

Of course, Buffalo's run defense (3.2, 80.4) is even better and they have yet to allow a rushing touchdown. They also have 8 interceptions and 24 sacks, so Smith is not in line for a good game here. Orton has to worry about the rush of course, the Jets have 20 sacks, but they have allowed 18 passing touchdowns against just 1 interception. Their secondary is a mess, and rookie Sammy Watkins is warming up. I think the visitors can find a way here although no result would really surprise me. This is the kind of game the guys in green usually find a way to win. Instead I am choosing the more logical result: Buffalo 24, NY Jets 19 (BUF +3/over 40.5) 

Miami (3-3) @ Jacksonville (1-6): The Jaguars have the monkey off their back. They will not go 0-16. This is a natural letdown spot for them. Here come the Dolphins trying to move above .500 and keep their season heading towards playoff contention. Home field is not a huge issue, nor is travel. It is a pretty easy call on the surface because the records are fairly indicative of how this teams have played so far this season. Jacksonville is definitely improving on defense and while it finally turned into a win last week they have allowed only 39 points in their last three games total after allowing 33-plus in each of their first four. The offense finally scored more than 17 points as well in the 24-6 victory over Cleveland. 

When I pick games, it is based on a body of work once it is available. Miami still looks like the choice here. The rushing defense are pretty comparable, but the Dolphins have been able to impose their will running the ball (4.8, 136.3) while the Jaguars have not (3.9, 86.0) and just because Denard Robinson lit it up last week does not mean he repeats his outburst. Jacksonville does get after the quarterback (22 sacks) but they have been torched through the air (280.1, 12 TD) and have only 2 interceptions. Miami is better at containing the pass, and rookie quarterback Blake Bortles is unpredictable. The Jaguars have thrown 11 interceptions and taken 29 sacks this season, or over double what the Dolphins have in those categories. I like the odds here. Anything is possible and we just saw it. I am in the business of more probable and it looks like this: Miami 28, Jacksonville 20 (MIA -4/over 42) 

Houston (3-4) @ Tennessee (2-5): Perception is a funny thing. Last year the Texans lost their final 14 games and had the first pick in the draft. They started 3-1 and suddenly everyone started taking them seriously again, but none of the teams they played are any good. Their 0-3 stretch since is probably more impressive because they have competed against better teams. The Titans did a little bit of the opposite. They started 1-3 against good teams, but were blown out in the losses. Then they lost two of three against lesser competition and were at least in those games. Now it is up to rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger to salvage something from their season. They need to know if it is time to draft another signal-caller with their first pick because Jake Locker is done.

Who know who is not done? Jadeveon Clowney, that is who. He might play here and will definitely have some college flashbacks chasing after a QB he saw in the SEC. Even if he is not suited up, J.J. Watt has been a wrecking crew without him. The respective rushing defenses are both subpar. Houston has the better rushing offense and definitely the superior threat in Arian Foster, but they are traveling on a short week after playing in Pittsburgh on MNF. So far both teams have subpar pass defenses as well. The passing offenses are equal, and worse relative to the NFL. The distinguishing factor is completion percentage. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick can check down and make good decisions if the team is leading. The rookie might be slinging it in his debut, and it is hard to know how the team is going to react in his first start. I am perplexed here. It is not an easy call, especially since the home team is barely a dog. For some reason, I still like the kid in this spot because the visitors are more deflated after their loss than the home team after their last-second defeat. Home field is the big factor: Tennessee 20, Houston 17 (TEN +4/under 43.5) 

Baltimore (5-2) @ Cincinnati (3-2-1): Remember when the Bengals were awesome, sitting on a 3-0 record entering their bye week? That was fun. They have not won since and have allowed 107 points in three games after giving up 33 in the first three. One of the latter was their week 1 win on the road over these Ravens 23-16. In that opener, Cincinnati had five scoring drives in the first half. Unfortunately they were all field goals, but the 15-0 lead carried them. Baltimore did take the lead for a minute, literally just a minute, until an A.J. Green touchdown closed it out. Will Green be available for the rematch? It is uncertain at this point and a huge factor.

Clearly, the Bengals were feeling the loss of Green last week when they were shut out and had 8 first downs. Eight! Their defense gave up over five bills, but it is hard to blame them considering the offense was giving the ball away so much. They desperately need a win here if they want to stay in the thick of the division chase, but are they good enough to get it done? The Ravens are feeling really good right now having just blown out two bad teams by a combined 77-24 The concern for them is retaining focus on the road against a desperate opponent backed into a corner. 

Passing is going to be interesting here. The Bengals have only 7 touchdown strikes all year, half of what the Ravens have and they have taken just 8 sacks. Joe Flacco has the edge here over Andy Dalton because of receiving options, but these are both bottom 10 pass defenses on the stat sheet. Cincinnati is getting swamped against the run (4.9, 146.3) while Baltimore has been stout (3.7, 87.4). Justin Forsett has been a revelation for the visitors this year after being thrust into a role due to extenuating circumstances and as a team they are seventh in rushing (4.5, 131.4). Even though Cincinnati has Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill, they have not been as effective (4.1, 111.5). None of it adds up for them. I hate to pick against a home team in a close game, but they stole a road win in the first meeting and give it back here: Baltimore 24, Cincinnati 17 (BAL +3/under 47)

Philadelphia (5-1) @ Arizona (5-1): Suddenly this is a marquee game. The Cardinals are, against all odds, up two games in the loss column in the NFC West. The Eagles are a half-game back of the Cowboys in the NFC East. It is premature to say exactly what the playoff implications are here, but needless to say both teams are going to be completely focused on the task at hand. Arizona comes in pretty relaxed. They have gone on the road twice in the past three, but the trips were short (Denver, Oakland) and last week against the Raiders was not a struggle. Their home fans have been dying for a game like this to scream their lungs out at, and they are 3-0 here. Philadelphia is even more rested and spent their bye week preparing for this one, on the heels of two home games. Plus, the defense just pitched a shutout after getting pushed around for the previous few contests. 

At some point, LeSean McCoy is going to break out. This is not the run defense (3.2, 72.5) to do it against in the desert. His opposite number Andre Ellington is probably in line to do more damage in this one. In the passing game, for all the talk of Chip Kelly's fast-paced offense the real key is controlling turnovers and protecting the quarterback. Arizona, even with backup quarterbacks playing a bunch in previous games, has taken just 11 sacks and thrown only 1 interception. Philadelphia has done a better job in protection (7 sacks) but has 7 picks. In this hostile environment, I like their chances to go +1 in the interception department and to stay close in sacks allowed. The Eagles can take advantage of an awful pass defense (284.8, second-worst in the NFL) but their own group is in the bottom 10 as well. It is a tight game. I like the home field here: Arizona 26, Philadelphia 24 (PHI +3/over 48)

Indianapolis (5-2) @ Pittsburgh (4-3): Every time it seems like time to bury the Steelers, they come away with a victory. All season they have alternated wins and losses, with this being their turn to lose. It is not a great spot for them because all three of their home games have been close, and this is the toughest opponent they have faced all year regardless of venue. Maybe at Baltimore can be argued, and they lost that game 26-6. The Colts are rolling along with five straight wins, including one over those Ravens. This is another opportunity for them to assert themselves as legit contenders in the AFC, which they are.

These are both ordinary run defenses in terms of yards per game, and their average per carry totals are on the high side (bottom 10 in the NFL). I bring this up because if either team can stick with the run it might pay off. Even without much in the backfield, Indianapolis is not far behind Pittsburgh in terms of yards per game because they do pound teams when they are leading. Their average (3.9) is much lower than the side with Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrette Blount (4.7). Plus, a dome team outdoors is always at a disadvantage. The Colts have gone to Jacksonville and Houston and won, but this is a different animal. 

Almost halfway through the sale, the Steelers have an average pass defense whereas the Colts rank fourth (214.4) and have allowed the third-fewest TD passes (8) with the fourth-most sacks (21). Ben Roethlisberger can nullify some of that, but his opposite number Andrew Luck is on fire these days. Being without Reggie Wayne hurts a little for the league's top passing offense. On the stat sheet, the sacks are in favor of the visitors and those are drive killers. I feel as though I cannot trust the home team here, mostly because their level of competition has not been very good. They lose a close one: Indianapolis 24, Pittsburgh 22 (PIT +4/under 49.5)

Oakland (0-6) @ Cleveland (3-3): It seems like the Raiders have to fall on a win at some point, just like the Jaguars did last week. Unfortunately, they are facing a Browns team that just lost to that 0-6 team and is not going to be in the mood to repeat the process. Brian Hoyer might have come down to Earth a little bit in the 24-6 loss and talk of Johnny Football have started back up. Oakland was not blown out of their stadium at all by a very good Arizona team, and the previous week they had a great shot to beat a similar strong San Diego side. On the road they should have taken New England to OT earlier this year, but the zebras took away a touchdown on a call the NFL later admitted was wrong. I am not dismissing their chances here. 

The wheels really came off Cleveland's offense last week with their first output lower than 21 points, and it was odd against a defense that was giving up points in bunches early in the year. Oakland, for all the warranted buzz around rookie quarterback David Carr, has topped 14 points only once. In a high scoring league it is no wonder they have yet to win. In their two true road games they allowed 19 and 16 points, but across the pond they gave up 38 so I am keeping that in mind. Oddly enough, the Browns actually have the worse run defense (5.0, 155.5) and it is dead last bad. The Raiders are fourth-worst in yards per game (145.3) but 4.0 per carry is not awful. I think I like Darren McFadden in this spot over Ben Tate without his starting center, stud Alex Mack. Yes, I know Oakland is dead last in rushing offense.

We could see a low scoring game here. Neither team has allowed double digit sacks, but neither has a dynamic passing offense either. The Raiders are activating cornerback D.J. Hayden, who to this point is a bust. The Browns have issues opposite of Joe Haden, big time. I do not see a lot of sacks or turnovers in this game. It feels like both teams will stick to the running game and keep long possessions going. I still like the home team although nothing would really surprise me here: Cleveland 20, Oakland 17 (OAK +7.5/under 44.5) 

Green Bay (5-2) @ New Orleans (2-4): How long can the Saints stay alive this season? They came off their bye week and choked a game in Detroit to put themselves in a pretty desperate situation here. Yes, they are still alive in the upside down NFC South, but you know what I mean. The Packers are on such a roll they probably wish their bye week could be delayed. Four straight wins have them feeling good, and three of those were decisive. Historically, quarterback Aaron Rodgers can do just fine in a dome although he did lose in Detroit earlier this year. The Lions have a much better defense though so I am not placing too much stock in that result. 

On paper, in a battle of elite quarterbacks Green Bay brings the fifth-best pass defense while New Orleans has the fifth-worst unit that is now without safety Jarius Byrd. On the stat sheet Drew Brees directs a passing attack that is +77 yards per game better, but we know those numbers lie a little. Rodgers has just 2 interceptions all year. The key might be pressure. The Packers have allowed 17 sacks, while the Saints have given up just 6. The crazy dome crowd could come into play for the desperate home team. Can the visitors stop the run? This is what concerns me. They are second-worst in the league (4.6, 147.9) and even with Eddie Lacey the Packers are having a hard time running the ball. I think Mark Ingram could return with a big game here and a strategic plan of keeping Rodgers on the sideline with long drives might be a key to a sneaky upset here. Yes, I know they are favored but given the records it is an upset: New Orleans 27, Green Bay 26 (GB +2.5/under 56.5)

Washington (2-5) @ Dallas (6-1): How 'bout them Cowboys? They just keep winning, six in a row now. The defense is massively overachieving and running back DeMarco Murray is on pace for a record-breaking season. What could possibly go wrong? Well, everything. Eventually, the smoke and mirrors defense could fold and one injury to Murray unravels the offense. For now, it is magical. Obviously, everything has already gone wrong for the Redskins who are down to third-string quarterback Colt McCoy. If nothing else, he is right at home in Texas under the lights of MNF.  He will not be overwhelmed by the moment. His defense has been roughed up most of the season, and his team is now 0-3 on the road. 

It would seem like Washington will want to run, but even with Alfred Morris they have not done it effectively (4.1, 99.4) while obviously league-leading Dallas has (4.8, 159.7). Oddly enough, the Cowboys give up 10 more yards per game on the ground, and a really high per-carry average (4.9) compared to the Redskins (3.8). Believe me, this game between rivals could get interesting if Jay Gruden sticks to the running game. Most of this was without McCoy obviously, but the Redskins are third in passing offense (306.3) thanks in part to garbage time yardage of course. Dallas is pretty average in pass defense and has just 7 sacks. Washington is seventh in pass defense for yardage, but has allowed 15 TD passes and has only 3 interceptions. I think this is closer than most people think because of the familiarity factor. Plus, home field is no big deal for the Cowboys in their huge stadium: Dallas 28, Washington 21 (WAS +10.5/under 51) 

NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8 | 16 comments | Create New Account
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NFL Predictions 2014: Week 8
Authored by: dbsmall onThursday, October 23 2014

Last week, my picks were straight Vegas line.  It wasn't intentional, but sometimes, that's how it works out.  (To be fair, I almost went with a hunch that GB would lose at Lambeau, but I thankfully didn't go with that...  Would have been a GetUpset pick, though, norcalfella.)  That gave me 11-4, for a season record of 71-35.

 

This week, I've picked some early upsets...

 

DEN

 

ATL

STL

NE

NYJ

MIA

SEA

TB

CIN

HOU

ARI

IND

CLE

GB

 

DAL

 

 

 

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