Subtlety is not one of my strengths

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Tuesday, April 25 2017

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 15

Sport

Maybe I shouldn’t have complained about week 13 not being lucky. The numbers were not with me this past week. I did manage to go 11-5 straight up (142-65-1 overall) and that was good. Even with some tough breaks against me I was also 10-4-2 against the spread as well (116-85-7 overall) and that was great. Somehow I suffered through a ridiculous 2-14 mark on the over/under (97-107-3 overall) and the category I normally excel at is now looking like a lost year unless I pull out some magic over the final few weeks.

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 14

Sport

 

It wasn’t exactly lucky 13 for me last week, but it was good enough. I went 11-5 straight up (131-60-1 overall) and I can’t whine about that. I continued my strong season against the spread at 9-5-2 (106-81-5 overall) where I am +25 against Vegas. Unfortunately I remain in a funk picking the over/under after going 8-8 (95-93-3 overall).

 

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 13

Sport

 

As the season ostensibly enters the fourth quarter I’m trying to navigate what can be some choppy waters with some teams mailing it in and others making a surprise run. Last week I went 11-5 straight up (120-55-1 overall) and considering I started 7-4 I will gladly take that. I was a sparkling 13-3 against the spread (97-76-3 overall) and finally hit plus territory for the season by going 10-6 on the over/under (87-85-3 overall).

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 12

Sport

 

A season is a marathon, and right now I’m just jogging along. Straight up I turned in a 12-2 week (109-48-1 overall) and any time I reach double digit wins it’s a good thing. Thankfully I recovered with some late Sunday wins against the spread to finish 7-7 (84-73-3 overall). It might be too late to turn around my woes on the over/under, but I did go 8-5-1 (77-79-3 overall). The dreaded final two weeks where anything goes loom so I only have four weeks left to do some business starting now.

 

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 11

Sport

 

A tie was the least of my problems last week, but it cost me double digits straight up. I went 9-4-1 (97-48-1 overall). I was 6-8 against the spread (77-66-3 overall) and also 6-8 on the over/under (69-74-2 overall). The week could have been worse considering I swept the last two games on the schedule.

 

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More NFL Forecasting using LibreCalc

Sport

Theoretically, the data used to build the probabilistic inputs into my simulation will enable it to get better, over time.

However, in the second week of forecasting, , the output from the model is...suspicious:

It's picking 2 upsets, which is ok.

But only one team is expected to cover the Vegas spread.

and it's only picking the "over" 4 times.  (Keep in mind, it only called the O/U accurately twice, last week.)
Actual forecasts, below the fold:

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Simulation Preictions

Sport

Ok...so I took the simulator I built, and ran it for all of the NFL games, this week.  Only a fool would bet, using this model, but the question is---as the data available to the tool increases, and it gets better, will it ever approach norcalfella capabilities of forecasting.  Below the fold, the simulation results versus Vegas:

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Math is awesome

Sport

Historically, I've built algebraic models when I've done data analysis.  (See "Volleyball Cookies" and "Volleyball Cupcakes").  But I was inspired by the stochastic methods for forecasting the election.  I built a pretty basic Monte Carlo simulator for the football game that happened on Thursday night (Indianapolis-Jacksonville).  The results?

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 10

Sport

It was a streaky week for me. I was 12-2 straight up (88-44 overall) and that works. I started 8-2 against the spread only to finish 8-6 (71-58-3 overall) but started 4-5 on the over/under and closed strong to reach 8-6 (63-66-2 overall). It’s very disappointing to be below water on the totals and I can’t quite figure it out. Moving on.

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NFL Predictions 2012: Week 9

Sport

 

Last week was pretty uneven for me. I was a disappointing 9-5 straight up (76-42 overall, 64.4%). The lone bright spot was going 10-4 against the spread (63-52-3 overall). I was a dismal 3-10-1 on the over/under (55-60-2 overall) and still lead Vegas by a little.