- The Fed kept interest rates artificially low for decades, and recently overcorrected with increases.
- The M2 increases have been absurdly large in recent history
- Donald Trump incited violence against Congress
- Donald Trump claims he’s going to run for POTUS in 2024
- If he gets the GOP nomination, he cannot win. Too many Dems and Inds would come out to vote against him.
- If he doesn’t get the GOP nomination, he’ll destroy the GOP, and his loyal supporters will stay loyal to him.
- He’ll likely declare that the US has been stolen/corrupted/rigged, and encourage his loyal followers to engage in civil unrest or rebellion.
- I am spending time in a big consumer store, and can definitively observe the following trends:
- People used to fill their carts, and are now shopping only for necessities
- Wealthy people used to shop for themselves. Now, it’s mostly non-wealthy and Instacart in the store.
- Nobody is buying Christmas gifts in any noticeable quantity. Some of this could be “waiting for Black Friday.” But it seems like it’s going to be a blue Christmas.
All of which leads me to anticipate some very, very rough times, ahead. Like, 2024 could be the last USA presidential election, in this current format. Or there could be significant civil unrest. And/or Grapes-of-Wrath levels of poverty.
Or maybe I’m wrong.